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Summary The Schwab U.S. Equity Dividend ETF offers investors very solid growth in dividends. Looking at the combination of yield and growth rate makes SCHD look like a very compelling long term investment. SCHD has been slightly less volatile than the S&P 500. I don’t want to stop buying equity when prices drop, so I’m buying the slightly less volatile equity. The holdings are a solid batch of companies with strong dividend histories and established market positions. Lately I’ve been looking for ETFs that offer investors more safety. We are seeing macroeconomic issues with corporate profits after tax making up record percentages of GDP and a stock market that, at least measured by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) is getting quite expense when we measure price to earnings or price to sales. That creates a real problem for investors looking for investments that have respectable yields without absurd levels of risk. In my opinion, one of the better shelters for the potential volatility is the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA: SCHD ). How expensive is the market? To demonstrate the relatively high prices, I grabbed the following chart: (click to enlarge) I try not to focus too much on any single measure. However, it is worth noting that price to sales levels are fairly high and that is enough to concern me and encourage me to focus on using more conservative allocations. Some sectors such as telecommunications are seeing substantial pricing wars that will drive down both sales values and profit levels. That makes me fairly bearish about the outlook for that sector. In the same way, we have seen mining companies facing very high fixed costs. Rather than respond to lower prices by cutting production, many initially attempted to increase production so the fixed costs could be spread over more units of production. From a macroeconomic perspective, I think thinner profit margins stemming from fierce competition are very healthy for the long term economy. More intense competition drives more efficient allocation of resources and lower costs are a very material benefit for consumers. Despite those gains, I want to be careful not to overextend my portfolio in buying up companies with deteriorating earnings. I’ve had quite enough of that pain from Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX ) when I didn’t predict that copper prices would get smashed by hedge funds shorting copper futures contracts to express a bearish view on China. That was an interesting lesson to learn. It encouraged me to be more careful about firms that are susceptible to seeing declining pricing power. Why SCHD is great While SCHD offers investors some appealing characteristics, like a .07% expense ratio, I’m finding more to love than the low holding costs. SCHD is offering some pretty great dividend growth history. 2011 was an incomplete year and is not a fair comparison. The full year data begins in 2012. The impressive thing is that 2015 is also an incomplete year but it is already matching the distributions for 2013. This is a dividend ETF with a respectable yield and it is a solid choice as a core portfolio holding. Holdings The following chart shows the top 10 holdings: (click to enlarge) This is a pretty good batch. I can’t help but notice that they are putting heavy weights on some of the companies that seem to be out of favor right now. Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ ) is an example of one of the companies that I’m concerned about as Sprint (NYSE: S ) wages a massive price war. On the other hand, I’m left wondering how long the fierce competition will last. In a market that is so heavily concentrated, it seems like a reduction in intensity of competition would immediately benefit all companies. You might wonder who would move first to calm the battle. My guess is Sprint, if they stopped battling I think Verizon and AT&T (NYSE: T ) would both quickly drop back into a more complacent strategy. I have to admit that I’m pretty big on seeing the heavy allocations to Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM ) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) because I expect those mammoths to get back on track. Investors may believe that cheaper gas is here to stay, but I think money in politics is here to stay for much longer. Don’t expect XOM and CVX to go quietly into the night. One way or another, the major gas companies will put up a fight for their shareholders. The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO ) and Pepsi (NYSE: PEP ) have both trailed the S&P 500 dramatically over the last five years. I’ll take that risk because they have a great distribution system in place. While junk food may be on the way out and healthier food is on the way in, these companies still have an incredible economic moat. They can still acquire the more attractive products and utilize their system of delivery to add substantial value to the process. Remember KO wasn’t too shy about taking a major position in Monster Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ: MNST ) when they recognized that MNST had a very desirable product that needed a stronger global distribution channel. Conclusion When the volatility in the market gets ugly, I’d rather not sit on the sidelines. This great dividend ETF is just what I need to keep acquiring the kind of dividend champions I want to hold for decades. Now if the price would just drop a little further and trigger my latest buy order… Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in SCHD, FCX over the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: Information in this article represents the opinion of the analyst. All statements are represented as opinions, rather than facts, and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell a security. Ratings of “outperform” and “underperform” reflect the analyst’s estimation of a divergence between the market value for a security and the price that would be appropriate given the potential for risks and returns relative to other securities. The analyst does not know your particular objectives for returns or constraints upon investing. All investors are encouraged to do their own research before making any investment decision. Information is regularly obtained from Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, and SEC Database. If Yahoo, Google, or the SEC database contained faulty or old information it could be incorporated into my analysis. Scalper1 News
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