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SolarCity ( SCTY ) stock combusted Wednesday after the No. 1 residential installer guided to weak Q1 installations and failed to assuage investor concerns about the rising cost of capital. The resulting conflagration charred rivals Sunrun ( RUN ), SunEdison ( SUNE ), SunPower ( SPWR ) and First Solar ( FSLR ), shares of which were down 13%, 6.5%, 4% and 2.5%, respectively, in midday trading Wednesday. IBD’s 26-company Energy-Solar industry group was weaker by more than 10%. In early trading on the stock market today , SolarCity stock crashed as much as 38%, touching a 34-month low at 18.26. By midday, shares were down 17%, above 21. Wall Street was split on SolarCity’s prospects. While at least three analysts slashed their price targets on SolarCity stock, another boosted his price target, and two analysts upgraded the shares. For Q4, SolarCity reported a per-share loss ex items of $2.37, widening from $1.33 in the year-earlier quarter. Sales grew 61% to $115.5 million. Both measures beat analyst expectations and SolarCity’s earlier outlook. SolarCity losses are expected to widen in Q1. SolarCity guided to per-share losses ex items of $2.55 to $2.65, deepening from $2.36 in the year-earlier quarter. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had modeled a loss of $2.36 a share ex items. Nevada Withdrawal Snags Installations Installations of 272 megawatts in Q4 and 870 MW for all of 2015 were each slightly short of SolarCity’s earlier guidance. The installer previously saw 280 MW to 300 MW for the quarter, and 878 MW to 898 MW for the year. Current-quarter views for 180 MW, up 18% year over year, don’t jibe with 2016 guidance for 1.25 gigawatts, up 44%, Needham analyst Y. Edwin Mok wrote in a research report. Mok retained his hold rating on SolarCity stock. CEO Lyndon Rive blamed SolarCity’s exit from Nevada and 15 MW in commercial project push-outs to Q1 for the December-quarter installation miss. Commercial installations of 51 MW in Q4 were below guidance for 80 MW to 90 MW. The commercial push-outs could snag guidance, Mok wrote. “We believe the Q1 and 2016 outlooks require SolarCity to complete a large amount of commercial projects, which clearly have timing risks,” Mok wrote. Solar, Wind Vie For Capital SolarCity’s 44% growth target for 2016 is predicated on the company’s access to capital, Credit Suisse analyst Patrick Jobin wrote in a report. At year’s end, SolarCity had $658 million in committed tax equity funding, providing about 510 MWs of runway. And the cost of capital is on the rise . In December, Congress extended key subsidies underpinning the solar and wind industries, and now more competitors are vying “for the same capital pool,” Jobin wrote. “Investors continue to fear cost-of-capital increases could jeopardize the positive spread (SolarCity) is earning,” he wrote. But SolarCity can raise $2.73/watt in financing, above its all-in $2.71/watt cost, Jobin wrote. That “indicates to us that the equity return is explicitly positive,” he wrote. On the flip side, the cost of capital differs between companies, and Sunrun’s more flexible structure has allowed it raise capital at a more attractive rate than SolarCity. Jobin cut his price target on SolarCity stock to 89 from 124 but reiterated his outperform rating. Scalper1 News
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