Scalper1 News
As the Q4 earnings season is winding down, the retail sector is grabbing attention with releases from its major players last week. Most of the retailers managed to beat our earnings and revenue estimates amid a slowing global economy, a stronger U.S. dollar and weakness in oil. In particular, better-than-expected earnings from retailers like J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ), Macy’s (NYSE: M ), Best Buy (NYSE: BBY ) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD ), and upbeat guidance from Target (NYSE: TGT ) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW ) spread optimism into the whole sector, and drove the stocks higher. However, disappointing results from Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) weighed on the sector’s performance. Let’s dig into the details of the earnings releases: Retail Stocks Springing Surprises One of the leading department store retailers, J.C. Penney , emerged as the real champion in the Q4 earnings season as the stock popped up 14.7% and hit a new 52-week high of $9.7 1 following blockbuster fourth-quarter fiscal 20 15 results on February 25 after the market closed. The company came up with a huge beat of 77.3% on earnings and a mild beat of 0.02% on revenues. Additionally, J.C. Penney expects to post its first annual profit in five years in 20 16 (read: Retail ETFs to Watch Ahead of Q4 Results ). The big-box retailer, Target , also hit a new 52-week high of $78.97 in the last trading session, while its shares have jumped 6% since its fiscal fourth-quarter 20 15 earnings announcement on February 24. Though the retailer lagged our estimates for earnings by a couple of cents and for revenues by $0. 157 billion, it impressed investors with its upbeat guidance for the current fiscal year. The company guided earnings per share in the range of $ 1. 15-$ 1.25 for the ongoing fiscal first quarter and $5.20-$5.40 for fiscal 20 16. The mid-points were ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $ 1.2 1 for the first quarter and $5. 16 for the full fiscal at the time of the earnings release. The second-largest department store retailer, Macy’s , has seen share price appreciation of 5.8% to date post its earnings announcement on February 23. The company reported earnings per share of $2.09 and revenues of $8.869 billion that outpaced our estimates by 23 cents and $0.092 billion, respectively. For fiscal 20 16, the company guided earnings per share of $3.80-$3.90, the lower end of which was much above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.72 at the time of the earnings release. Home Depot , the world’s largest home improvement retailer, cheered investors with better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results thanks to mild weather and an improving housing market. The company beat on earnings by 7 cents and on revenues by $0.6 19 billion. For fiscal 20 16, Home Depot expects earnings per share to increase 12%- 13% to $6. 12-$6. 18 and revenues to grow 5. 1%-6%, with same-store sales growth of 3.7%-4.5%. Driven by solid results, the company also raised its quarterly dividend by 17% to 69 cents per share and announced a $5 billion share buyback plan. The stock has gained nearly 2.7% to-date post its earnings announcement on February 23. The second-largest home improvement retailer, Lowe’s , reported in-line fourth-quarter fiscal 20 15 earnings but beat on revenues by $0. 182 billion. Moreover, the company provided an upbeat guidance for fiscal 20 16. The company expects sales to grow 6%, with 4% growth in comparable sales and earnings per share of $4.00. The stock has added 1.8% to-date since its earnings release on February 24. The largest U.S. electronics chain, Best Buy , topped our fourth-quarter fiscal 20 16 earnings estimate by 13 cents, but fell short of our revenue estimate by $0.049 billion. For the ongoing first quarter of fiscal 20 17, the company expects earnings per share in the range of 3 1-35 cents. Shares of BBY has gained 0.5% since its earnings announcement on February 25. The Real Dampeners The specialty retailer, Nordstrom , is the major loser as the stock has tumbled nearly 6.7% following lackluster fourth-quarter fiscal 20 15 results. The company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings by a nickel and for revenues by $0.09 1 billion. In addition, the company issued disappointing earnings per share guidance of $3. 10-$3.35 for fiscal 20 16, the upper-end of which was well below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.45 at the time of the earnings release. Nordstrom expects sales to increase 3.5%-5.5% and comps to grow in a flat to 2% growth range. The stock is modestly down 0.4% since the earnings announcement on February 18 after-market close. Shares of Wal-Mart , the world’s largest retailer, fell about 3% after the company missed on revenues by $0.687 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 20 16 and issued a weak revenue outlook, pointing to continued struggle with lower traffic and decelerating e-commerce. The company lowered its revenue growth projection for fiscal 20 17 from 3%-4% projected earlier to relatively flat. It also provided earnings per share guidance of $4.00-$4.30 for the full fiscal and 80-95 cents for fiscal first quarter of 20 17 (read: Consumer ETFs in Focus as Wal-Mart Disappoints ). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the full year and the ongoing quarter were $4.56 and 88 cents, respectively, at the time of the earnings release. However, earnings per share came in at $ 1.49 for the fiscal fourth quarter, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3 cents. The stock is up 0.6% to-date post earnings results on February 18. ETFs in Focus Robust performances and bullish guidance from most retailers offset the handful of weak earnings releases, leading to a rally in retail ETFs over the past 10 days. Investors seeking to take advantage of the ongoing rally in the space could consider the following three ETFs given the power-packed earnings releases. Any of these could be excellent choices given that these have a Zacks ETF Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy), suggesting their continued outperformance in the months ahead. SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT ) This product tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, holding 100 securities in its basket. It is widely spread across each component as each of these holds less than 1.6% of total assets. Small cap stocks dominate nearly three-fifth of the portfolio while the rest have been split between the other two market cap levels. In terms of sector holdings, apparel retail takes the top spot at one-fourth share while specialty stores, automotive retail and Internet retail have a double-digit allocation each. XRT is the most popular and actively traded ETF in the retail space with AUM of about $667.9 million and average daily volume of more than 4.3 million shares. It charges 35 bps in annual fees and gained 12.8% over the past 10 days. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 1. Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: RTH ) This fund tracks the Market Vectors US Listed Retail 25 Index and holds about 26 stocks in its basket. It is a largecap-centric fund and is heavily concentrated on the top 10 holdings with 64. 1% of assets. The largest allocations go to Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN ), Home Depot and Wal-Mart (read: ETFs to Watch Post Amazon’s Big Earnings Miss ). Sector-wise, specialty retail occupies the top position with less than one-third share, followed by double-digit allocations each to Internet and catalog retail, hypermarkets, drug stores, departmental stores and healthcare services. The fund has amassed $ 149.6 million in its asset base while average daily volume is moderate at about 77,000 shares. Expense ratio came in at 0.35%. The product added 8.2% in the same period and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2. PowerShares Retail Fund (NYSEARCA: PMR ) This retail fund provides a diversified exposure across various market caps with 45% in large caps, 43% in small caps and the rest in mid caps. This is easily done by tracking the Dynamic Retail Intellidex Index. The fund has accumulated just $22.8 million in its asset base while trades in a light volume of under 5,000 shares a day. The ETF charges 63 bps in fees per year. In total, the product holds 29 securities with none accounting for more than 5.88% of assets. In terms of industrial exposure, specialty retail takes the top spot at 48%, while food retail ( 19%) and drug stores ( 12%) round off the top three positions. PMR is up 8.5% in the past 10 days and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2. Bottom Line The string of earnings and revenue beat has allowed retail ETFs to surpass the broader market fund by wide margins in the same period. This is likely to continue given the solid trends in the space. This is especially true as consumer spending has started regaining momentum on a slow but recovering economy, better job and wage prospects, and low oil prices. Original Post Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News