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Palo Alto Networks ( PANW ) hosted an upbeat Analysts Day at its Ignite 2016 cybersecurity conference in Las Vegas Monday, but the stock erased weeks of gain Tuesday. It’s still up 39% from a low point on Feb. 8. The biggest pure-play computer network security company fell 6% to 151.92 in the stock market today . The drop reflected its worst day since a 7.2% slide on Feb. 18 in the throes of the January-February software sag of 2016. Palo Alto Networks stock is now trading 24% off its record high, set July 24 at 200.55. It went public priced at 42 in July 2012. The market was down Tuesday, but none of the major U.S. indexes was off more than 1% at midday, while Palo Alto Networks became the topic of a slew of analyst reports issued after Monday’s big show. Let’s go to the tape: Needham’s analyst raised a price target on Palo Alto to 187 from 171, affirming its buy rating. Goldman Sachs trimmed a price target to 188 from 191. Pacific Crest’s analyst assured, “The party is still getting started.” Credit Suisse’s analyst noted: “The company anticipates being able to sustain this level of revenue growth (over 30% in 2017 and beyond) and operating profile (35%-45% free cash flow and 100-200 basis points of operating margin expansion by 2017) for several years.” William Blair’s Jonathan Ho “came away with a stronger appreciation for the company’s … opportunity to ultimately become the largest player in the cybersecurity space,” he said in a research note issued Tuesday. Let’s do the math: If computer networking behemoth Cisco Systems ( CSCO ), which is growing its cloud-related services much faster than its traditional on-premise products, were able to sustain its fiscal 2015 growth rate for security services — up 12% to $1.747 billion, or 88% more than Palo Alto’s entire $928 million in 2015 sales — Palo Alto’s estimated 30%-plus growth rate by 2017 suggests that it would overtake Cisco’s security sales sometime in fiscal 2019, something like $3.05 billion vs. $2.74 billion in projected Cisco security revenue. But who’s counting? The analysts are. “We continue to believe investors are underestimating how large Palo Alto will ultimately be, particularly given that most of its revenue is still derived from competitive displacements, as opposed to a refresh of its captive installed base (which has only recently modestly begun),” said William Blair’s Ho. “Our industry discussions suggest Palo Alto continues to dominate next-generation firewall win rates and is still in the relatively early phases of a market undergoing significant transition. Furthermore, increasing traction in (Palo Alto products) WildFire, Traps, Aperture and AutoFocus could create opportunities in new markets for the company to broaden its platform reach. As a result, we would continue to be buyers of the stock, particularly given its recent pullback.” Given Tuesday’s slide in Palo Alto stock, Pacific Crest analyst Rob Owens’ take on Palo Alto seems even more the case: “Palo Alto Networks is our top pick in security,” he said in a late Monday research note. “It is rapidly gaining share against competitors, trades at a discount to comparable-growth companies and has potential upside drivers from new subscription services.” He affirmed Pac Crest’s 190 price target with an outperform rating. Palo Alto gets an IBD Composite Rating of 82 out of a possible 99, factoring in its earnings track record, stock performance and other measures. Scalper1 News
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