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Summary Geothermal is a small but fast-growing and important part of the growing alternative electricity generating space. Ormat is an industry leader with significant new capacity coming online. The Ormat Energy Converter technology is a patent protected process that gives the company a competitive advantage in the space. We believe that ORA will eventually be valued like the high-yielding electric utilities as it boosts its dividend payout with strong free cash flow growth. Ormat Technologies (NYSE: ORA ) is a global leader in geothermal energy technology, which we think will be a net market share adder over the next half decade. The path towards expanded margins and stronger earnings growth has become more clear, which we think should re-rate the shares higher over the course of the next year. We think the company has completed a significant amount of strategic initiatives over the last year which is unlocking substantial shareholder value. Those key catalysts, which we believe should reward shareholders, include: Share exchange completion with Ormat acquiring parent company in order to get listed on the TA-25 Index. Underlying growth in the space should realize a double-digit CAGR through 2020, propelling earnings. Its patented Ormat Energy Converter technology provides a competitive advantage. Company Description The company is the leader in the geothermal and recovered energy power generation business. The company builds and operates environmentally-friendly geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants, typically using equipment that it designs and manufactures. Most of the operating portfolio is in the US, Kenya, and Guatemala. The firm has a ~80% market share in the geothermal binary power market segment. The company has two reporting segments: electricity revenues and product sales. Electricity revenue represents two-thirds of revenue and 63% of operating income. The company has 50 years of experience in the space and owns and operates approximately 650 MW of power generation. (click to enlarge) Source: Corporate Presentation Long-Term Opportunity Potential We think geothermal is an overlooked area of alternative energy investment that holds many of the strong properties that are sought after by both investors and power generation companies. The essential properties of geothermal technology tap the heat from the Earth that escapes through various fissures as gas or water. Hydrothermal geothermal-electricity generation is derived from naturally occurring reservoirs of heat that are formed when water comes in contact with hot rock or through “escaping” heat of 300 degrees or more. The heated water rises to the surface and is extracted through geothermal wells, typically located within a few miles of a power plant. The key is if natural ground water sources and reinjected, extracted geothermal liquids are adequate to continuously replenish the geothermal reservoir creating a long-term renewable energy source. Geothermal in the US currently generates approximately 13 GW of geothermal energy. This is enough electricity to power approximately 20 million US homes, but represents just 0.2% of global electricity generating capacity with very low penetration. In the last year, the globe added 700 MW of additional capacity in 2014. Third-party forecasts as well as the Geothermal Energy Association (GEA) predict 10%-12% annual growth through the end of 2020. Bloomberg predicts that by 2030, capacity will grow to 40 GW, representing 270% capacity growth over the next eighteen years. Even with that massive growth, the percentage of power generated from geothermal would still be less than half a percent. The reason for the growth is the base-load potential of the source, meaning that it has a long-life potential (~30 years) and is cost competitive with coal and gas. Source: Bloomberg Energy Finance 2013 Proprietary Technology In Binary Plants A Differentiator Binary power plants are operated using the Organic Rankine Cycle where heat is transferred to a fluid at constant pressure. The fluid is then vaporized and then expanded in a vapor turbine that drives a generator, producing electricity. The company has proprietary technology that can be used in binary power plants to recover energy generation to capture unused heat derived from the industrial processes. This can be converted into electricity using the Rankine system. Ormat has a proprietary system called the Ormat Energy Converter which fulfills this purpose in both binary and REG systems. The whole system has been designed by Ormat including the turbines, pumps, and heat exchangers, as well as formulation of organic motive fluids, all of which are environmentally friendly. The company also patented and developed GCCU power plants in which the steam first produces power in a backpressure steam turbine and then is condensed into a binary power plant, producing additional power compared to conventional methods. We think ORA’s technology has a number of competitive advantages compared to its competition. Conventional steam plants can consume a substantial amount of water, causing depletion of aquifers. In the US, most of the natural geological geothermal energy plants and sources are in the West, namely Nevada, California, Arizona, Utah and Idaho. These are areas where water is a valuable commodity, meaning water-saving technology is far superior to conventional steam methods. ORA’s binary technology also has lower visual impact which can be aesthetically unappealing to residents in the localities. Traditional steam models have to have large cooling towers which emit exhaust plumes during cool weather. Ormat’s technology does not have emissions when using its geothermal fluid technologies. Other competitive strengths include the ease of operation and low maintenance. This is derived from the lack of contact between the turbine blade and geothermal fluids, which tends to have a corrosive effect. Instead, the company’s technology passes the fluids through a heat exchanger, which creates less friction and can withstand corrosive fluids better. We think its moat and competitive advantages are a strong positive on the shares. Between the focus on geothermal binary and recovered energy generation, ORA’s proprietary energy conversion technology and its global expertise separate it from the competition. Margin Expansion Story Underway The business lends itself to significant scale advantages with margins growing to 36.4% last year and 37.3% over the trailing twelve-month period. EBITDA margins are up to 47.8%, up 1,000 bps over fiscal 2013. We think margins should continue to expand bolstered by the electricity segment which has several natural advantages to scale. Some of that margin expansion will come from stronger pricing per MWh. We think the expansion of new capacity over the next two years along with increased utilization should help the segment achieve 40%+ gross margins on an annual basis. The product segment is also seeing much strong margins growing from 27% to the current 38.4%, a significant increase. The business can see more lumpy margin expansion and contraction depending on product mix and EPC service. We think it’s an important driver of the value-add in the business as it’s far superior to other alternative power companies like solar and wind. State And Federal Push Into Renewables Renewable portfolio goals have been set in 40 states which require state-based utilities to generate or import a certain percentage of their electricity from renewable energy or recovered heat sources. California, for instance, established one of the first renewable portfolio standards which requires 25% of electricity generation and usage by renewable, and 33% by 2020. Another state, Hawaii, has an ambitious goal of achieving 100% renewable energy generation by 2045. Hawaii has a significant amount of geothermal activity which can utilize Ormat’s technology, and we believe that it will be a significant contributor in the portfolio of renewable power generation. As costs of renewable energy generation continues to come down and when factoring in ancillary costs of CO2-emitting power generation, we think states will continue to raise renewable standards and goals towards at least 50%. Depending on the location, geothermal will likely be an important part of that renewables portfolio. Remember, geothermal power generation does not need to be the majority or even one of the top three sources for Ormat to see a significant boost in revenue. The Federal government does not have a set renewable portfolio goal, but through the EPA, has been pushing up renewable usage through the implementation of additional regulations onto CO2-emitting power generation, namely coal. This was done by the Obama administration in 2013 which directed the EPA to create new pollution standards for new and existing power plants. In this clean power plan, the goal is to cut carbon emission from the power sector by 30% below 2005 levels nationwide by 2030. Movement towards renewables, while not explicitly cited, is a key factor in achieving those ends. Valuation The shares amid the global sell-off trade at just 9.6x ttm EV/EBITDA, which we believe is a discount given the shift towards higher-margin electricity segment revenue generation. We used a sum-of-the-parts analysis of the business to more accurately assess the value of the shares. The electricity segment is similar to many of the publicly-traded utilities that are power generators. The only real difference is the source of the power generated coming from geothermal rather than coal or natural gas. Using the public utilities as comps, the shares are trading at a slight discount to others like PPL Corp. (NYSE: PPL ), NRG Yield, Inc. (NYSE: NYLD ), TerraForm Power (NASDAQ: TERP ), and NextEra (NYSE: NEE ), but ahead of some other peers like TransAlta (NYSE: TA ), AES Corp. (NYSE: AES ), and Abengoa (NASDAQ: ABGB ). The peer group comps have a median average of 8.9x, which is slightly ahead of the ntm EV/EBITDA ratio for Ormat at 8.5x. We think that the product segment is holding back the consolidated ratio, but given the growth in the business’s margins, we think that could be changing. In addition, we see the electricity segment as gaining scale which is expanding its margin significantly towards 40%. As such, we do think the consolidated multiple should expand towards 9.0x. We applied a 5.5x multiple to the product segment, which we think is fairly conservative, but given the size of the business, it’s not a significant driver to the consolidated multiple. On the electricity side, the margins should be at least in line with the comps. We could make the argument that the electricity segment should receive a premium valuation and that the product multiple is too conservative. We estimate $285 million in EBITDA net of the company’s Northleaf JV ownership. We think the shares are worth $42 using those fairly low multiples. Conclusion We believe Ormat is an ignored alternative energy company. While the market seems to cater towards the solar and wind companies, we think the geothermal space is actually superior to the economics of those two alternative energy segments. We think the shares are worth approximately $42 and that the long-term trends within the space are very strong. The company is bringing on significant new capacity over the next two years while it becomes more efficient and gains scale, boosting its margins and profitability. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Scalper1 News
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