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U.S. crude again trickled to below $40 per barrel on Wednesday following the bearish inventory storage report from EIA that has deepened global supply glut and amid fresh fears that the world’s largest oil producers will not cut production when they meet on Friday. The prospect of interest rates hike and the resultant surge in dollar added to the woes. As such, U.S. crude plunged 4.6% on the day while Brent slumped 4.2% to the nearly seven-year low. The inventory data showed that U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 1.2 million barrels in the week (ending November 27). This marks the tenth consecutive week of increase in crude supplies. Total inventory was 489.4 million barrels, which is near the highest level in at least 80 years. As the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to meet on Friday, the market is not expecting the members to arrest production. Instead they are expected to pump oil vigorously to protect their market share. If this happens, crude will continue to be in a free-fall territory like it was last year when OPEC had decided not to cut production. However, Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies are willing to cut back if other producers like Iran, Iraq, and Russia join them in the mission. In fact, at the meet, Saudi Arabia may propose a cut of 1 million barrels per day in the OPEC output to strike a balance in the oil markets. Outlook Remains Bleak The current fundamentals are not in favor of oil with rising output and waning demand. This is especially true as OPEC is pumping record oil since Saudi Arabia and other big producers are focusing on market share. Iran is looking to boost its production once the Tehran sanctions are lifted. Meanwhile, oil production in the U.S. has been on the rise and is hovering around its record level. On the other hand, demand for oil across the globe looks tepid given slower growth in most developed and developing economies. In particular, persistent weakness in the world’s biggest consumer of energy – China – will continue to weigh on the demand outlook. Notably, manufacturing activity in China shrunk for the fourth straight month in November to a 3-year low. The International Monetary Fund recently cut its global growth forecast for this year and the next by 0.2% each. This is the fourth cut in 12 months with big reductions in oil-dependent economies, such as Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia. That being said, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the global oil supply glut to persist through 2016 as worldwide demand will soften next year to 1.2 million barrels a day after climbing to five-year high of 1.8 million barrels this year. ETFs to Watch Given the bearish fundamentals and the OPEC meeting tomorrow, investors should keep a close eye on oil and the related ETFs. Below we have highlighted some of the popular ones, which could see large movements ahead of the OPEC decision: United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA: USO ) This is the most popular and liquid ETF in the oil space with AUM of over $2.5 billion and average daily volume of over 25.7 million shares. The fund seeks to match the performance of the spot price of WTI. The ETF has 0.45% in expense ratio and lost 3.6% in the Wednesday trading session. iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index ETN (NYSEARCA: OIL ) This is an ETN option for oil investors and delivers returns through an unleveraged investment in the WTI crude oil futures contract. The product follows the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Index, a subset of the S&P GSCI Commodity Index. The note has amassed $813.3 million in AUM and trades in solid volume of roughly 3.7 million shares a day. Expense ratio came in at 0.75% and the note was down 3.3% on the day. PowerShares DB Oil Fund (NYSEARCA: DBO ) This product also provides exposure to crude oil through WTI futures contracts and follows the DBIQ Optimum Yield Crude Oil Index Excess Return. The fund sees solid average daily volume of around 311,000 shares and AUM of $477.9 million. It charges an expense ratio of 78 bps and lost 2.9% in Wednesday’s trading session. United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEARCA: BNO ) This fund provides direct exposure to the spot price of Brent crude oil on a daily basis through future contracts. It has amassed $82.7 million in its asset base and trades in a moderate volume of roughly 109,000 shares a day. The ETF charges 75 bps in annual fees and expenses. BNO lost 3.7% on the day. Original post . Scalper1 News
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