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China gaming company NetEase ( NTES ) is being hit by declining user activity for both its PC and mobile games and an “unfavorable” tax rate change, according to an analyst. “Cross-border commerce continues to grow, but we are cautious on likely negative catalysts, including government regulations, currency exchange fluctuation and intensifying competition,” wrote ITG Investment Research analyst Henry Guo in a research note Monday. Seasonality and competition are offsetting the company’s cross-border e-commerce momentum in Q1, he said. “Longer term, we continue to see multiple potential risks to NetEase’s e-commerce efforts, considering the uncertainties related to government policy and tax regulations on cross-border commerce and increasing competition from established e-commerce players in the market,” Guo wrote. NetEase stock closed Monday at 140, down 3.1%. NetEase stock has risen 36% in the past 12 months but is down 22% since early January. Shares touched a record high above 186 near the end of 2015. Three China tech firms — Internet search leader Baidu ( BIDU ), e-commerce king Alibaba Group ( BABA ) and Tencent Holdings ( TCEHY ), China’s leader in messaging and gaming — lead the way in China’s Internet arena. NetEase is another leader on China’s Web, as is e-commerce company JD.com ( JD ). The company said that revenue from online games, its biggest segment, more than doubled in Q4, thanks to growth in its original mobile games. The company’s “Westward Journey Online” and “Fantasy Westward Journey” came in as the top two games in the Apple ( AAPL ) iOS China app store in the fourth quarter, NetEase said. While the company now has multiple mobile games in testing, Guo said, few are available for public testing. “As such, we haven’t seen a step-up in game user activity in the quarter, which we attribute to a lack of promotions or incentives,” he said. Guo said he has modeled NetEase’s ad revenue to decline 10% quarter over quarter in Q1 2016, “a significant improvement from the year-ago period’s 18% quarter-over-quarter decline, reflecting NetEase’s heightened immunity to advertising seasonality, such as the Chinese New Year.” NetEase is best known for its desktop PC games and has had a lucrative exclusive license for Activision Blizzard ( ATVI )‘s “World of Warcraft” in mainland China since 2009. The company also develops its own games, mostly the multiplayer variety played on desktop PCs and mobile devices. Apple stock closed down a fraction at 105.19, while JD.com stock fell 2% to close at 25.82. Alibaba stock rose a fraction to close at 76.48, while Baidu stock rose a fraction to 185.17. Scalper1 News
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