Scalper1 News
There are mixed views on emerging markets now. According to a report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, fund managers have mostly been pessimistic about emerging-market equities since 2001. On the other hand, some strategists at leading banks and financial companies believe that securities from emerging markets may have hit their lowest point. Amid the contradictory opinions, certain market experts are of the view that investors often invest in emerging market funds too late or they stay invested for too long. So, while buying certain favourably ranked emerging market funds at a discount now should be a prudent move, investors may also dump certain Sell-rated funds that their portfolio will not miss. The Pessimism According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s monthly survey, fund managers are the most underweight on emerging-market equities against developed-market equities since the survey began in 2001. While post 2009, fund managers’ relative positioning had jumped and stayed mostly in the green till 2013, the sentiment soured after that. In 2014, the sentiment dropped to a new low before rebounding in late 2014 and early 2015. However, the sentiment is the most pessimistic now. The bearish outlook is concentrated mostly on Asia. Investors are apprehensive about the slowdown in China’s economy while the U.S. central bank may hike rates. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting on Nov 30 is also crucial. Investors fear further devaluation in the Chinese currency but not before IMF adds the yuan to its Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies. And if this happens, Bank of America strategists fear that the markets will move even lower. Goldman Sachs projects that yuan traded at offshore rate may weaken by 2.5% to 3% against the dollar in the next 2 months. Eventually, the devaluation of yuan may impact other emerging-market currencies, as they are often influenced by the monetary policies in the world’s second-largest economy, China. The Contrarian View Meanwhile, market watchers at a number of leading banks and financial institutions have said that they believe asset values for emerging markets have hit a rock bottom. In fact, the views come from the likes of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Barclays PLC. Following three continuous years of losses, markets and assets from developing nations are poised for a rebound. According to Morningstar, in the 12 months ended October, emerging-market stock funds traded in the US dropped an average 13.4%. A major indicator of valuations for emerging markets is the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which is down 30% from the high achieved in 2011. The index is currently trading at approximately 12x its earnings estimates. Additionally, the index’s valuation is nearly three times lower than the S&P 500’s current figure. This is why analysts at Barclays believe that prices of emerging market securities are significantly lower than their intrinsic value. Over the six-month period since the last three American market tightening cycles began, global markets have gained an average 15%. Strategists are also hopeful that emerging markets might rebound in 2016. They say that it might not mirror the “roaring”2000s, but 2016 might be the year the emerging markets “find their feet”. 2 Emerging Market Funds to Buy As mentioned earlier, investors should not miss the buying opportunity. An uptrend in emerging economies brings good tidings for investment instruments from these countries. Many of them currently have reasonable valuations compared to their historical averages. Below we present 2 International Bond – Emerging Market mutual funds that carry either a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 (Buy). Remember, the goal of the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is to guide investors to identify potential winners and losers. Unlike most of the fund-rating systems, the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is not just focused on past performance, but also on the likely future success of the fund. Fidelity New Markets Income (MUTF: FNMIX ) fund invests the lion’s share of its assets in emerging markets or makes other investments that are economically linked to emerging markets that have stock markets as defined by MSCI. These emerging market countries also may also be the ones with low- to middle-income as classified by the World Bank. FNMIX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1. FSRPX has gained respectively 3.7% and 0.2% in the year-to-date and 1-year periods. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 1.2% and 5.4%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 0.84% is lower than the category average of 1.16%. Goldman Sachs Emerging Market Debt A (MUTF: GSDAX ) predominantly invests in emerging market debt securities. These instruments may be issued by governments as well as corporate entities. To gain exposure to certain emerging economies, GSDAX may use structured securities or derivatives among others. GSDAX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. GSDAX has gained respectively 2.8% and 0.5% in the year-to-date and 1-year periods. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are 1.5% and 5.1%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.24% is higher than the category average of 1.16%. 2 Emerging Market Funds to Sell It is also important to not stay invested in certain underperforming funds. For investors not ready to bet on the emerging markets now or for investors who have lost plenty staying invested in some emerging market funds, below we present 2 funds that either carry a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #4 (Sell) or Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5 (Strong Sell). Eaton Vance Emerging Markets Local Income A (MUTF: EEIAX ) gains exposure to the emerging economies by investing in securities and derivatives among other instruments. Bulk of EEIAX’s assets are invested in securities denominated in currencies of emerging market countries, fixed income instruments that are issued by emerging market entities, and in emerging-market denominated derivative instruments. EEIAX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #5. EEIAX has lost respectively 10.6% and 16.5% in the year-to-date and 1-year periods. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are negative 7.2% and negative 2.5%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.25% is higher than the category average of 1.16%. PIMCO Emerging Markets Currency A (MUTF: PLMAX ) invests most of its assets in currencies of emerging market countries or in fixed income instruments denominated by these currencies. PLMAX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #4. PLMAX has lost respectively 5.2% and 9.7% in the year-to-date and 1-year periods. The 3- and 5-year annualized returns are negative 4.7% and negative 2.4%, respectively. Annual expense ratio of 1.25% is lower than the category average of 1.58%. Original post Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News