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Summary Introduction and series overview. Creating my son’s first plan. Future income streams. Summary. Back to Part VIII Introduction and Series Overview This series is meant to be an explanation of how I constructed my own portfolio. More importantly, it I hope to explain how I learned to invest over time, mostly through trial and error, learning from successes and failures. Each individual investor has different needs and a different level of risk tolerance. At 66, my tolerance is pretty low. The purpose of writing this series is to provide others with an example from which each one could, if they so choose, use as a guide to develop their own approach to investing. You may not choose to follow my methods but you may be able to understand how I developed mine and proceed from there. The first article in this series is worth the time to read based upon some of the many comments made by readers, as it provides what many would consider an overview of a unique approach to investing. Part II introduced readers to the questions that should be answered before determining assets to buy. I spent a good deal of that article explaining investing horizons, including an explanation of my own, to hopefully provoke readers to consider how they would answer those same questions. Once an individual or couple has determined the future needs for which they want to provide, he/she can quantify their goals. If the goals seem unreachable, then either the retirement age needs to be pushed further into the future or the goals need to become attainable. I then explained my approach to allocating between difference asset classes and summarized by listing my approximate percentage allocations as they currently stand in Parts III and III a. Part IV was an explanation of why I shy away from using ETFs and something akin to an anatomy of a flash crash. In Part V I explained the hardest lesson about investing that I have had to learn: why holding cash is not a bad thing at certain times. Part VI was an explanation of why and how I sell long-held positions. Part VII was about tax efficiency to give readers some sense of what I put in which account and why. Part VIII was about building a plan for saving and investing, identifying reasonable goals and setting milestones to track progress. In this article I will do my best to explain how my son’s original plan was developed and then how we adjusted it to accommodate a change in his career plans. It is easier said (or written) than done, but it is a worthwhile task for anyone do undertake, especially for those early in their investing experience or even for those in the thick of it yet struggling for clarity of purpose. Creating my son’s first plan We started off talking about his horizon which is a difficult concept to grasp right out of college. For now, since he is single and focused on getting started off on the right foot, we stuck to what is important to him. He would like to retire by the time he is 60 and knows that if he does not start planning and saving now his chances could be less than desirable. He is also aware of how inflation will require him to need more nominal income in retirement and that he will, because of advances in medical technology, live considerably longer and need sustainable income streams that will keep him ahead of inflation after retirement. He believes that having the equivalent of $60,000 in annual income (in today’s dollars) will be sufficient to retire on. He is also keen on a career in the Air Force as an intelligence officer. So, that is where we started. First, we looked up the officer pay schedule on airforce.com which lists the starting pay and in-grade increases for years of service. He would start at $33,941 in his first year as a second lieutenant. His cousin is a major after serving ten years and a couple of my friends retired after twenty and thirty years of service, respectfully at the ranks of lieutenant colonel and colonel, each having spent more than five years in grade at the time of retirement. With that information and a reasonable assessment of my son’s intelligence, attitude, and work habits, we made some assumptions about how his career would progress. Obviously, this is more predictable than most careers are likely to be but it is a good way to start the process. It seems apparent from both experience of people we know and the pay schedule that the Air Force does not expect an officer to remain below the grade of captain for more than five years. It also appears that a promotion to major should happen within the first twelve years. If the officer is hard working, learns fast and evolves into a valuable asset (which is what my son intended) one could expect to be a lieutenant colonel by year 15 and a full colonel sometime before year 22. After that point we assumed he would probably not make it to general, so the expected salary at the time of his retirement would be $126,688 before inflation. His income would increase from $33,941 to $126,688 (before inflation) over 30 years. Formula = ((33941/126688)^(1/30))-1 But we know that the pay schedule gets updated regularly to account for inflation, so we assumed an average two percent annual adjustment. That would create a six percent annual compound rate of growth in income and we end up with a final annual pay of about $183,906 per year 30 years from now. That probably sounds a lot better than it will feel. We assumed that he would make the maximum contribution (ten percent) to his 401K plan (Thrift Savings Plan) right from the start and that the Air Force would make a five percent matching contribution. We also assumed that the maximum contribution threshold would be indexed to allow him to not exceed the maximum amount allowable by law. In the end, assuming a relatively cautious, but flexible allocation that should result in a six percent compound annual rate of return, he would end up with $593,952 at the end of his 30 year career. At that point, he would retire from the Air Force and seek a better paying position in a private firm for the next ten years. He changed his mind on retiring at the age of 60 once I explained that he may need to work in the private sector for ten years (to record 40 quarters of paying in) in order to be eligible for social security. With that in mind we made the first adjustment, extending his expected working career by two years. He will make the determination when he is approaching retirement as to whether social security benefits will be worth the additional effort. Extending his retirement savings in to the new 401K plan, making the maximum contribution allowed by the employer and assuming a continued five percent matching contribution while, at the same time allowing the Air Force plan to continue to grow until he retires completely, we estimated that his total savings in the two plans would aggregate to a total of $1,587,338 by the time he reaches age 62. Notice what happened over the last ten years; without changing the rate of growth and by merely continuing to contribute the same percentage of a gradually rising income, the total increased by 167 percent from just under $600,000 to almost $1.6 million! That is the power of compound interest (growth) over time. Next we assumed that he would begin putting the maximum allowed contribution into an IRA at the end of his first year in the Air Force, or $5,500. We assumed a slightly more aggressive allocation to achieve an annual compound rate of return of eight percent. We did not make any assumptions about inflation or future increases to the maximum allowable contributions. Thus, this should be a conservative estimate. If he is consistent in contributing the maximum amount each year until age 62 when he plans to retire, we estimate that his IRA(s) should have a total of $1,494,117 accumulated. As I pointed out in the precious installment, he plans to contribution initially to a Roth IRA while his income tax rate is still below 30 percent. At the point at which his incremental tax rate (combined for federal and state) hits 30 percent he will switch his contributions to a traditional IRA to save on taxes if he feels he needs the relief to accommodate his lifestyle. But, we also discussed that his income will probably be high enough in retirement that his income tax rate may be more than 30 percent. One never knows what will happen to income tax rates in the future so having as much tax-free income as possible is a good thing to plan on. The thing to remember is that we are trying to create multiple streams of future income. So far we have developed two future sources of income from savings. But wait! There’s more! Yes, as I mentioned in the previous segment of the series, we assumed that he would not be able to save much in a taxable account during the first 17 years. Why? Well, he will need transportation, entertainment, and who knows but that he might even get married and have children. Then there’s the house, another car (or a van), saving for the kids’ college expenses, and all the extra expenses that accrue to a family with children. He will be saving in a taxable account, but I explained to him that he would probably not be able to hold onto much of it for quite a few years. There will be a down payment for car(s) and car payments, a down payment for a house and the additional maintenance expenses, and family vacations can be expensive (four people usually costs nearly four times as much as one). It will be hard, but eventually his income (and that of his wife if she works) will grow enough to allow for additional savings that can targeted for retirement. One other item that we discussed is that he needs to build a savings account as a buffer for emergencies. If he gets laid off or his wife does and there is a need to meet expenses while searching for employment, he will need to have an emergency fund to draw from. My wife and I have tried to keep the equivalent of six months living expenses in our emergency savings account. We have needed it several times for things like moving, a new HVAC system for the house, a new roof, a new appliance, etc. It gets drawn down and then we build it back up again. After talking it through my son understood the need for an emergency savings account. We decided, after some negotiation, that he might be able to begin saving for retirement in a taxable account in about 18 years. He, of course, is hoping to get there sooner but we agreed to 18 years for the plan. So, he will be saving in that taxable account for 22 years before retirement and we assumed an annual compound rate of growth of seven percent to allow for paying taxes on the dividends, interest and gains when necessary. His plan calls for him to save $5,000 in the first year and then increase the savings by $1,000 each year ($6,000 in year two, etc.) until he reaches $10,000 per year. He plans on continuing to save $10,000 per year until retirement. We estimate that he should accumulate $506,565 by age 62 in his taxable account. His total savings from all three sources (401K, IRAs and taxable savings) should be $3,448, 769. Future income streams After concluding his savings plans we moved onto identifying all future streams of income for retirement. The Air Force has a generous retirement plan. I am not certain but believe it pays two percent per year of service time the average of the high three years of salary. We estimated that the average of his last three years of income from the Air Force would be about $180,000. Thus, two percent times 30 years of service is 60 percent of that amount to calculate his annual pension. That results in a first year pension of about $108,000 that he could begin to draw at age 52. We assumed an annual average of two percent cost of living adjustment until his death. If I am wrong and the Air Force has adjusted the pension to be one percent of the high three years average, then his pension would be half as much. Still, it is just one stream of future income. There are more. The second potential stream of income would be social security. This one is tough to estimate because we assume that there will need to be adjustments made to the plan and benefits (probably later age requirement and reduced benefit). So, we tried to be conservative and estimated that he would be eligible for approximately $18,000 of annual benefits in today’s dollars and that he would not be able to begin receiving benefits until he reaches 65 years of age. We also assumed that over that time the cost of living adjustment would average two percent. At age 65 he would be able to collect $41,350 (adjusted for inflation) and that amount would increase to $55,652 by age 80. That makes two income streams so far. Now we need to look at the retirement accounts for additional income for when it is needed. The first one we will look at is the taxable account since it does not continue to accumulate on a tax-deferred basis like the IRAs. My son will probably roll over his 401K savings from the Air Force into a traditional IRA account. Whether he rolls his private employer 401K over into a traditional or Roth IRA account will depend on the options he has when he begins his employment. If they offer a Roth 401K, he may go that route. Whatever is the case, he will likely roll over each account to an IRA of similar tax treatment. Likewise, which account he decides to draw from will depend on what his marginal tax rate is during retirement each year. The Roth IRA income will be tax-free. It went in after tax and as it comes out there are no taxes owed (unless Congress decided to change the rules). The withdrawals from the traditional IRAs will be fully taxed as earned income. The taxes were only deferred. None of the savings in the traditional IRAs will have had any taxes paid until the withdrawals begin. We decided, for simplicity, to combine the 401K and IRA accounts into one stream and labeled it retirement savings income. He will take what he needs from whichever account makes the most sense to him at the time of withdrawal. Of course, there is a required minimum withdrawal that he will need to make from the traditional account(s) once he turns 70 1/2, so the IRS will have its say in at least part of the decision. We assumed that he would have at least a two percent annual return from those accounts including dividends and interest, and that income would likely increase each year. We also assumed that there would be some appreciation, but that he would be investing very conservatively (read: mostly fixed income), so we also assumed that he could take out three percent each year and that he could increase his withdrawal by two percent per year. Our reasoning is that at such a low rate he should not need to draw down principal, making his savings last indefinitely. He has no idea how long he will live! If he begins withdrawals at age 62 he could add a third retirement income stream of $90,278 per year. Adding the incomes together, we get a total of $224,572 per year. If we adjust for and average rate of inflation of three percent that would equal about $70,909 in today’s dollars, more than his goal. That is good because it is always more realistic to aim a little high and hope you come close. If he wanted, he could simply use only $158,351 in his first year of retirement. That is how much $50,000 would equal at a three percent average annual rate of inflation. Now, if I was wrong about the Air Force pension plan and his income would be calculated at the one percent rate instead of two percent, then his income in his first year of retirement would be $157,425 in year one. Funny how that is less than six tenths of one percent from what his original goal. Summary The point of this exercise and the series is that a well-defined plan, consistent execution and reasonable goals can work for most people resulting in financial security. Obviously, there are setbacks and no plan will work perfectly but as shown here, even if he fell well short of his goals and got behind his milestone targets, my son would still end up in relative good shape. If he had no plan and started later in life, as most people do, he would probably not come close to achieving the wherewithal to retire as comfortably. Everyone will have different long-term objectives and goals. Thus, everyone needs to create a plan that is personalized and can help them achieve those goals. A person who has lesser ambition and expectations will, nonetheless, need a plan to be able to retire at their own level of comfort. It will not be any easier just because someone needs less to make them happy. No plan, haphazard savings or swinging for the fence with every investment are all sure fire ways to end up with less than one needs. I had hoped to include how we adjusted my son’s plan to accommodate his change in career paths, but the article is getting too long. I will cover that in the next installment and then I will cover how I determine with relative confidence when the market is likely to have changed trend directions. Readership of the series continues to fall off with each new installment. Thus, I will probably wrap up the series with eleven parts. I had wanted to include a few installments that pertain to how my version of buy-and-hold investing has worked over the years by highlighting the performance of some of my holdings, but I believe those might do better in separate articles with titles unrelated to this series. I will add link to those articles in the instablog I created for the series, though. The instablog for the series can be found by clicking on the following title, ” How I Created My Own Portfolio Over A Lifetime .” As always I welcome comments and questions and will do my best to provide details and answers. This is one of the best aspects of the SA community. We can learn from each other and share our perspectives so that other readers can benefit from the comprehensive knowledge and experience represented here. That works out to a compound annual increase of four percent over 30 years. Scalper1 News
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