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Regional growth is very dependent on China’s economy. The fund is very heavily weighted in financial services. A few of the holdings operate in unique niches, with little competition. A proverb is timeless and has application generation after generation. For example, in Southeast Asia one might often hear that ‘ a tray full of money is not worth a mind full of knowledge ‘. That proverb will no doubt catch the attention of any ‘experienced’ investor. There’s quite a difference between “not knowing something” and “not realizing something”. The former seems to imply a lack of information: not knowing. The latter seems to imply that the information is there, but not understood: not realizing. Unfortunately, investors are often lost in the misty in-between of not knowing and not realizing. However, logic dictates that in either event, the odds are not in your favor. With that in mind, the question must be asked: has the emerging market expansion run its course? A critical bit of information is determining whether the Chinese economy is experiencing a normal correction, or looking for a sustainable bottom in an ongoing economic contraction. It’s difficult to say. There is one certain fact, though: the amazing bull market expansion of China’s once emerging economy pulled the entire global economy along with it and, in particular, the economies of Southeast Asia. Hence, are the odds in favor of a rebound in Southeast Asia? Picking and choosing individual investments from among countries with different varied rules and regulations would be a daunting task. If an investor were to choose an ETF, there’s only one way to enter that market: Global X Southeast Asia ETF (NYSEARCA: ASEA ) . According to Global X, the fund ” …seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE/ASEAN 40 Index …” The fund employs a passive methodology; 80% of total assets are invested in American Depository or Global Depository receipts; hence, most of the companies will be listed on OTC exchanges. The index is one of the five FTSE ASEAN Index series. The selected stocks of all of the ASEAN indexes are selected from “… Bursa Malaysia, Hanoi Stock Exchange, Ho Chi Minh Exchange, Indonesia Stock Exchange, The Philippine Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Thailand… ” According to FTSE-Russell, the FTSE/ASEAN 40 index “… is designed to represent the performance of the largest companies in the ASEAN region’s markets …” So, the first bit of basic information is to know the geographic allocation of the fund. Data from Global X A quick overview of the included country’s annualized growth is outlined in the table below. Country Annualized GDP as of Q3, 2015 Core Inflation Debt/GDP Unemployment Rate Sovereign 10-Year Bond Ratings S&P, Moody, Fitch Singapore 1.9% 0.3% 99.3% 2.0% AAA, Aaa, AAA Malaysia 4.7% 2.5% 52.5 3.2% A-, A3, A- Indonesia 4.73% 5.02% 25.02% 6.18% BB+, Baa3, BBB- Thailand 2.9% 0.88% 45.7% 0.9% BBB+, Baa1, BBB+ Philippines 6.0% 1.8% 45.4% 5.7% BBB, BAA2, BBB- Averages 10.93% 3.60% Data from Trading Economics No doubt, these particular emerging markets have experienced a rate of growth that is the envy of the entire region, even when compared to the larger, more established economies such as Japan and Korea. However, this seems to be the ‘modus operandi’ of emerging markets throughout history. So without the economic pull of China, can these economies readjust and grow organically? Data from Global X Clearly, the fund heavily weights the Financial sector. Of the fund’s 40 holdings, 14 holdings, totaling 35% of the fund, are financials. Several of these financial services companies are global and importantly, most offer Sharia compliant financial services in a region of the world where 240 million Muslims or 40% of the entire population resides. Of the 14 financial holdings, there’s only one REIT. Also, six are either ‘holding companies’ or ‘groups’. This may serve as an advantage as the financial services of these holding companies are well diversified among the full spectrum of financial services, and in several cases, diversified internationally. Lastly, DBS Group Holdings ( OTC:DBSAY ) , Malayan Banking ( OTCPK:MLYNF ) , CIMB Group Holdings ( OTCPK:CIMDF ) , and Bangkok Bank ( OTC:BGKKF ) all have offices in the UK or New York, thus established in the major global financial centers. Financials 48.72% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap ( USD Billions) Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business DBS Group Holdings OTC: DBSAY 7.44% $41.267 3.66% 9.55 12.95% Global Financial Services Holding Company; Full line from retail to wealth management; Main subsidiary in London, UK; operations in Asia Overseas Chinese Banking OTC:OVCGF 7.02% $35.528 4.18% 9.48 12.23% Financial Services group; retail banking, insurance; equities and futures trading; headquartered in Singapore United Overseas Bank OTCPK:UOVEF 5.87% $30.935 4.44% 9.95 10.68% Banking Services from retail through corporate levels; asset, wealth and venture capital management; Clearing operations; Singapore Public Bank Berhad OTC:PBLOF 4.74% $16.316 3.02% 14.60 12.06% Banking group, retail, corporate lending, proprietary trading,, securities trading, some property holding; Kuala Lumpur PT Bank Central Asia OTC:PBCRF 4.23% $24.419 1.29% 18.43 19.07% a.k.a. Bank BCA conventional and Sharia retail services; underwriting and brokering; Jakarta Malayan Banking OTC: MLYNF 3.68% $18.736 6.84% 10.97 NA Holding Company for Maybank Group; offices in Singapore, Malaysia, New York, London Hong Kong and Bahrain; HQ: Kuala Lumpur Bank Rakyat OTCPK:BKRKF 2.995% $20.037 2.72% 10.90 26.92% a.k.a. Bank BRI; retail services, lending, and Sharia services; Jakarta PT Bank Mandiri Persero OTCPK:PPERF 2.12% $15.320 2.43% 10.21 20.47% a.k.a. Bank Mandiri; retail conventional and Sharia services; insurance, business finance, securities brokering; Jakarta CapitaLand OTCPK:CLLDF 2.05% $13.421 2.87% 11.79 -0.47% Real Estate investment; consulting, development, holding; shopping malls, residences; HQ Singapore CIMB Group Holdings OTC: CIMDF 2.04% $8.723 1.80% 16.89 -1.17% Financial services holding company; conventional and Sharia services; Offices in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia and London, UK; HQ Kuala Lumpur SM Investments Corp. OTCPK:SVTMF 2.01% $13.851 1.29% 22.03 11.23% Investment holding company property, retail and banking service; convention centers, hotel holdings; merchandise trading; HQ Pasay, Philippines Siam Commercial Bank OTCPK:SMCBF 1.96% $11.665 4.86% 8.82 20.77% Financial service for retail and small-medium size business; non-performing loan solutions; Bangkok Kasikornbank PLC OTCPK:KPCPF 1.82% $10.207 2.61% 8.36 25.66% Commercial Banking; small-medium size business, credit, home loans, insurance, international transaction, security services; Bangkok Bangkok Bank Public Company OTC:BGKKF 0.75% $7.982 4.32% 8.15 12.06% Commercial Bank; retail, cash management, project and trade financing, credit; China, Hong Kong, US, UK, Singapore, Indonesia, Laos, Vietnam, Philippines; HQ: Bangkok Averages 3.48% $19.17 3.31% 12.15 1 14.04% 1 Excluding MLYNF Data from Reuters, Yahoo! The main reason mobile communication rooted itself so well in so many emerging markets is because it was far more cost efficient to construct cell-phone towers, or transmit content via satellite, than it was to run thousands of miles of copper across the country or countries . These are not so much ‘outstanding companies’ as much as they are necessary , particularly in rural areas. Telecom Service 20.05% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business Singapore Telecommunications OTC:SGTCF 7.16% $43.402 4.56% 15.80 -0.66% Telecom investment holding company; consumer, enterprise, digital solutions; Singapore, Australia, Asia, Africa; HQ : Singapore PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia NYSE: TLK 3.82% $21.323 2.75% 19.31 -24.81% Domestic and international telecom services; internet, Wi-Fi, data and satellite services; HQ: Bandung, Indonesia Advanced Info Services OTC:AVIKF 2.35% $15.902 6.47% 15.27 16.60% Mobile, call centers, broadband; IT solutions; Bangkok Axiata Group OTCPK:AXXTF 2.24% $12.350 3.62% 22.16 4.84% Telecom investment holding company; network services, mobile services; Kuala Lumpur Digi.com OTC:DIGBF 1.59% $9.047 4.81% 20.66 15.21% Telecom investment holding company; mobile, internet and services; Malaysia; HQ Kuala Lumpur Maxis OTC:MAXSF 1.45% $11.386 4.71% 30.70 -3.44% Telecom investment holding company; mobile, fixed line, international, broadband Philippine Long Distance NYSE: PHI 1.31% $8.984 6.63% 13.51 -5.62% Telecom services; fixed line, wireless, satellite and fiber networks; Makati, Philippines Averages 2.85% $17.48 4.79% 19.63 0.30% Data from Reuters, Yahoo! The industrial companies, again, are often diversified holding companies which span many other sectors. For example, Jardine Cycle & Carriage ( OTCPK:JCYCF ) may be considered a consumer discretionary holding via its marketing and sale of motor vehicles, but it also has investments in heavy equipment manufacturing, mining, agriculture and infrastructure management. Similarly, Sime Darby ( OTCPK:SMEBF ) has investments in agriculture, property holdings, equipment leasing, energy, utilities and land management. The most notable, unique and focused holding in the sector is Singapore’s Kepple Corp. (STI: KPLM) . Kepple is one of the few global, large scale, diversified marine engineering and construction companies. Further, its base of operation is centered among the busiest seaports on the planet. Industrials 9.69% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business PT Astra International OTCPK:PTAIF 3.20% $18.103 3.66% 14.31 13.82% Diversified vehicle component manufacture; financing, service; agri-logistics and IT; Jakarta Keppel Corp. Ltd. STI: KPLM 2.32% $8.199 7.55% 6.30 2.13% Marine construction, service, management; ship construction, repair, refitting; Singapore Sime Darby OTC: SMEBF 2.01% $10.347 3.46% 21.02 20.11% Industrial agriculture investment holdings; property, equipment; energy, utilities; palm oil, rubber, land management Wilmar International OTCPK:WLMIF 1.53% $13.079 2.78% 11.71 -7.97% Industrial agri-investment holdings; palm products, oil seeds, grains, sugar; Singapore Singapore Airlines Ltd. OTCPK:SINGF 1.39% $9.351 2.46% 23.58 11.70% Passenger and cargo transport; air charter services; operations managements, maintenance services; Singapore Airports of Thailand OTC:AIPUF 1.33% $11.811 2.00% 24.96 55.81% Airport and hotel management and services; Bangkok SM Prime Holdings OTC:SPHXY 1.24% $12.885 0.99% 21.90 4.60% Property Developer: malls, residence, office, hotel and convention centers; Pasay, Philippines Jardine Cycle & Carriage OTC: JCYCF 0.97% $9.473 3.46% 12.32 9.90% Auto and motorcycle, heavy equipment, mining manufacturer, mining, agribusiness, infrastructure management Averages 1.86% $11.97 3.27% 17.86 14.31% Data from Reuters, Yahoo! The utilities sector is pretty much focused on just that: utilities. These three companies focus on gas and electricity distribution, with some overlap in the energy sector via exploration and drilling. Utilities 5.60% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business Tenaga Nasional OTC:TNABF 3.90% $17.086 2.21% 12.12 13.05% Electric Utility; generation and distribution; Kuala Lumpur Petronas Gas OTC:PNAGF 1.50% $10.340 2.56% 19.88 NA Gas utility; processing, storage, transport and distribution; Kuala Lumpur Perusahaan Gas Negara OTCPK:PPAAF 0.70% $4.338 5.82% 9.91 3.36% Gas Utility; natural gas distribution; oil and gas exploration; Jakarta Averages 2.03% $10.59 3.53% 13.97 2 8.21% 2 Excluding PNAGF Data from Reuters, Yahoo! In consumer staples, CP ( OTC:CPBQF ) has a unique niche as the exclusive manager of all 7-Eleven stores in Thailand. Consumer Staples 4.69% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5 Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business CP All Public CPBQF 1.79% $10.421 1.92% 30.44 15.27% Convenience store management; includes 7-Eleven; bakery, coffee shops, health and beauty; Bangkok Unilever Indonesia Tbk OTCPK:UNLRF 1.03% $20.052 2.19% 45.05 13.52% Household, personal care and food products under a dozen brand names; Jakarta Averages 1.41% $15.24 2.06% 37.75 14.40 Data from Reuters, Yahoo! There’s only one discretionary holding, Genting ( OTCPK:GIGNF ) , a diversified hospitality company. What makes it interesting, on its own merits, is its global reach, managing properties not just in Southeast Asia, but also in Australia, the UK and the Bahamas with plans to expand to China and Japan. Consumer Discretionary 4.64% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business Genting Singapore PLC OTC: GIGNF 1.18% $6.558 1.31% 54.22 NA Resorts, Hotels and Casinos, Australia, Bahamas, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, UK. Other regions in development Data from Reuters, Yahoo! The ‘drag’ on any fund these days is the energy company holdings, particularly the smaller scale exploration and drilling companies. The current market price simply cannot justify costs. Energy accounts for 3.12% of the fund. Energy 3.12% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business PTT Public OTC:PUTRF 1.95% $17.460 5.00% 12.65 1 -1.59% Gas and petroleum fuel and chemical products domestic and overseas distribution; Bangkok PTT Exploration and Products PCL OTCPK:PEXNY 0.75% $6.177 4.46% 15.15 1 -4.15% Petroleum exploration and production; pipeline and general energy investment; Bangkok Averages 1.35% $11.82 4.73% 13.9 -2.87% 1 Approximate Data from Reuters, Yahoo! Similarly, many materials manufacturers, like building and plastic related chemicals, have experience decreasing demand during the regional economic slowdown. The two materials manufacturer holdings are in those sub-sectors: chemicals and building materials. Materials account for 2.92% of the fund. Materials 2.92% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business Petronas Chemicals Group OTC:PECGF 1.61% $12.31 2.40% 20.72 NA Material investment holdings; chemicals, olefins, glycols, polymers, aromatics, fertilizers; Kuala Lumpur Siam Cement OTC:SCVPF 1.28% $14.203 3.40% 11.94 6.67% Industrial Supplies and building materials, ready mix, concrete, pulp, and chemicals; Bangkok Averages 1.45% $13.26 2.90% 16.33 ——– Data from Reuters, Yahoo! Lastly, the most defensive sector, Health Care, accounts for only 1.48% of the fund with IHH Health Care ( [[ IHHHF]]) . In a perhaps ‘over bought’ health care sector, this company occupies an interesting niche as a hospital management company with services in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. Health Care 1.48% Ticker Fund Weighting Market Cap Yield P/E 5-Year EPS Growth Rate Primary Business IHH Health Care BHD OTC: IHHHF 1.48% $0.416 0.48% 68.38 Health Care holding company; hospital management in CEE, Middle East, N. Africa and Malaysia; Kuala Lumpur Data from Reuters, Yahoo! As for the fund itself, it first listed in February 2011. It’s comparatively small with $13.7 million in net assets. Its yield is relatively good, although it must be seen in the context of an ‘EM’ region with slowing growth. Management fees are rather high at 0.65% and the 3-month average daily volume is low at approximately 9,500 shares a day. The returns reflect the region’s economic slowdown: -19.57% year to date, -22.50% in the past year and -6.14% over 3 years. Since inception, the fund has been essentially flat, totaling a -1.26% return. If the fund presents any advantage, it’s in the list of those 40 companies. A few have what seems to be great future potential when the region turns the corner. (click to enlarge) Currently, there’s more risk on the downside than there is on the upside. The chart demonstrates clearly that. The shares traded at an all-time low in mid-August and well off the May 2013 all-time high. There’s absolutely no doubt that Southeast Asia has made remarkable strides among emerging markets. However, these cycles simply don’t go on forever. Even the arguably second largest global economy, China, has admittedly met the end of its externally sourced expansion and is now transitioning to a domestically driven economy. It’s just as reasonable to expect that China’s economy will find a bottom and start an expansion cycle again. Hence, the point of the matter is that, right now, realizing the risk is worth far more than knowing that there will be a turnaround, eventually. Editor’s Note: This article covers one or more stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks. Scalper1 News
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