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Big biotech Gilead Sciences ( GILD ) hit a two-month high Monday after two analysts delivered bullish outlooks for the company. On Sunday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Michael Yee lifted his Q1 EPS estimates due to a stock buyback and noted several recent pieces of “incremental” good news. For one, he cited late Friday the successful patent suit that Merck ( MRK ) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals ( IONS ) had brought, which resulted in a somewhat lower damages award ($200 million) than Wall Street had expected. He also noted that weekly prescription data from IMS Health ( IMS ) suggest that Gilead’s hepatitis C drugs, Sovaldi and Harvoni, were holding up reasonably well in the face of competition from Merck’s Zepatier, which launched in late January. Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges made this point more emphatically Monday in a research note that called Merck a “pretender to the HCV (hepatitis C virus) throne.” Porges noted that a survey of top payer plans backed this up. “Seven weeks after the launch of Zepatier, Sovaldi and Harvoni retain a relatively favorable position in 65% of the top 20 largest commercial plans and 70% of the top 10 largest government plans relative to AbbVie ’s ( ABBV ) Viekira Pak (20%, 30%, respectively) and Zepatier (0%, 10%),” Porges wrote. “Further, in the top 20 Medicare plans, while Harvoni is covered by 100% of plans, 85% of plans do not cover Viekira Pak, and none cover Zepatier.” Porges affirmed his outperform rating on Gilead stock, with a price target of 127. Gilead shares rose 1% Monday. The stock has climbed about 13% from the 20-month low it hit on Feb. 2, but it still has a weak IBD Relative Price Strength Rating of 29, meaning the stock’s performed in the lowest 29% of all stocks the past 12 months, with an emphasis on the most recent months. Alder BioPhama Soars On Trial Small biotech Alder BioPharmaceuticals ( ALDR ) soared nearly 50% to a two-month high Monday after its migraine drug candidate succeeded in a midstage trial, positioning it to compete with some giant rivals. Alder said that a single intravenous infusion of Alder’s monoclonal antibody, ALD403, had significantly reduced migraine days over a 12-week period, compared to a placebo. Depending on the dose, between 44% and 57% of patients experienced a 50% reduction in migraine days, while 27% to 33% experienced a 75% reduction. “Evaluation of ALD403 continues to exhibit a potential best-in-class profile, which includes immediate, significant and durable migraine prevention with infrequent quarterly dosing,” Alder CEO Randall Schatzman said in a statement. “With our commitment to the accelerated development of ALD403 reinforced by today’s positive results, we look forward to advancing our development plan, and assuming FDA approval, independently marketing ALD403 in the U.S. to meet the critical medical needs of the 13 million patients nationwide who are candidates for migraine prevention therapy.” Alder’s decision to market its drug without a Big Pharma partner, unusual for a small biotech, could pit it against some very big competitors developing similar drugs. ALD403 is an anti-calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) antibody, similar to migraine candidates that Amgen ( AMGN ), Teva Pharmaceutical Industries ( TEVA ) and Eli Lilly ( LLY ) are developing. Quarterly dosing distinguishes Alder’s drug: Amgen and Teva’s drugs are injected once a month, while Lilly’s is biweekly. ALD403 would also compete against Allergan ’s ( AGN ) Botox, which is also quarterly but involves 31 separate shots. Credit Suisse analyst Vamil Divan wrote that ALD403’s results seem roughly equivalent to Teva’s in terms of effectiveness, but he did note that there was no significant improvement over the placebo in the number of patients who experienced a 100% reduction in migraine days. Between 4% and 8% of patients on the drug achieved this, which was lower than the 16% who had been headache-free in a previous trial. Alder shares are rising from a deep decline. Scalper1 News
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