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Summary Central banks in Japan and Europe continued to ease monetary policy, and Fed had just revealed its dovish side as two governors stood out to oppose the rate hike this year. GLD had formed a double bottom since August and reformed the uptrend on October 1 as oil got stronger and USD weakened. This sets the stage for stronger inflation, and GLD is about to get more valuable in its role as an inflation hedge. In this article, I am going to express my views on gold as seen on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA: GLD ). Basically, I am bullish on gold and see the current weakness as a mere retracement for the serious gold investor to build their gold stockpile at slightly lower prices. Gold serves as an inflation hedge throughout time. The current situation is making it easy for inflation to burst above the 2% inflation target suddenly and on a prolonged basis. This is because major central banks are all engaged in monetary easing, and there are no concrete signs that they are going to stop anytime soon. Japan & Europe To Continue on Easing Bias The Bank of Japan (BOJ) renewed its commitment to increase its monetary base by $80 trillion yen per year on its latest monetary policy statement on 7 October, 2015 . This is despite a moderately growing Japanese economy as inflation was still below its 2% target at 0.2% for August 2015. In Europe, inflation continued to be weak. Eurostat reported that inflation was negative 0.1% for the month of September 2015. This is one reason that the ECB continued to keep main refinancing interest rates at 0.05% and deposit facility interest rates at -0.20% . In addition to negative inflation, Europe is facing more risk to its growth as seen in the recent speech by ECB President Mario Draghi to the International Monetary and Finance Committee on 9 October, 2015 : “However, developments surrounding the slower growth in emerging market economies are posing renewed risks to the euro area outlook. Our monetary policy measures have supported, and continue to support, domestic demand, contributing to the euro area recovery and to a gradual improvement in the inflation outlook.” Hence it is clear that the ECB would not be changing its monetary easing stance soon and would continue to purchase $60 billion per month of public and private securities. Fed Steps Away For 2015 Rate Hike Most crucially, the Federal Reserve had just made it clear that it is doubtful over the lack of inflation in the US. The first hint came when the Fed failed to raise interest rates in its September 2015 meeting as widely anticipated. Next, the September meeting’s minutes were released, and it showed that the Fed officials were more worried about the lack of inflation despite the steady growth in the US. It was mainly blamed on low oil prices and the strong USD. After the minutes were released, Chair Janet Yellen and FOMC Vice Chair William Dudley stepped forward and made speeches to keep the hopes of a hike rate alive in this year, presumably in December 2015. However, recently, we have heard that two Fed governors had stepped out in opposition of a rate hike this year. It is rare to hear from Fed Governors Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo . Brainard made the case that he wanted to see a more robust recovery and Tarullo wanted to see a more robust inflation recovery. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the most recent consumer price index declined 0.2% for September 2015. Fed governors have a permanent vote on the FOMC, and it should be noted that both immediate past Chairman Ben Bernanke and current Chair Janet Yellen had to go through the appointment of Fed governor before their supreme appointment. Hence the fact that both Fed governors bothered to appear on record to make their stance is a highly noteworthy event. With such opposition, it would be very difficult for Chair Yellen to hike rates this year even if she felt that it was necessary to do so to get ahead of the curve. Externally, this dovish position is supported by the IMF. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that a Reuters survey showed that 55% of the polled economists expect a rate hike in December, and this is down from 60% in the previous month. Bullish GLD Formation Aided By Strengthening Oil & Weakening USD As we can see on the chart below, GLD had been on the rise since August and has since formed a double bottom. (click to enlarge) Source: StockCharts The Fed had overlooked the recent recovery of oil prices and has provided the ideal environment for inflation to grow. (click to enlarge) Source: StockCharts The other factor that would encourage inflation would the continued weakening of the USD, as seen in the chart below: (click to enlarge) Source: StockCharts Both effects require time to appear on the official reports which often come up with two months of delay. In the meantime, the market is actively pricing in higher inflation as gold prices have been on the uptrend since 1 October, 2015, in its latest wave up. Conclusion Gold prices are on the verge of a breakthrough as indulgent central banks around the world continue to either ease monetary policy or at the best stick to a neutral stance. The action of the Fed to signal clearly that it is unlikely to hike rate this year is a game changer. Don’t be too affected by the minor weakness on October 16. This is due to a strong consumer confidence report and this only provides a needed profit-taking opportunity. Gold should continue its uptrend after the retracement as fundamentals are in its favor. Scalper1 News
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