Scalper1 News
With global markets (esp. EM) stumbling, the upcoming FOMC meeting, political instability worldwide, and weak US domestic data, it may be time to bet on an increase in volatility. September through December are going to be some of the most volatile months in the year. Several options for investors: ETFs/ETNs that track volatility, such as TVIX, VXX, UVXY, derivative strategies, or going bearish/long-term on stocks. What a summer it’s been and September is only half-way over. Just overnight (as of Sept. 14th, 2015), Asian markets dipped again on poor economic data, with the mainland Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) ending on -2.67% (at one point, nearly falling under 3k) and the Nikkei Index falling under 18k at -1.63%. Unfortunately, for international investors, this is not news . With the stock market crash that started in June and the subsequent desperate attempts by the Chinese authorities to prevent the crisis from getting any worse, everyone can at least agree on one thing: the ‘Asian century’ is faltering (for the brief three decades that it lasted) and the annual 8% GDP growth figures are a thing of the past. And considering China’s is a pseudo-market system run by an aging regime that grew up out of the throes of Mao’s Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution, recent events should come as a surprise to no one. From the real estate sector to the financials sector, China has been one giant bubble bound to burst. Below is the SHCOMP 1yr with Jean-Paul Rodrigue’s ‘phases of a bubble’ superimposed. (Source: Bloomberg Business) As to be expected, capital investment has been pouring out of China as illustrated below. And China’s isn’t the only market international investors need to be worried about. All of the emerging markets, especially the BRICS, are going to be very volatile. Between Brazil’s immense debt and failing presidency or Russia’s falling ruble and dependence on oil , emerging markets are going to be in quite a lot of pain in the coming months, especially since central banks are running out of options as most have already exhausted their QE (quantitative easing) measures. (Source: JPMorgan) (Source: Reuters & NASDAQ) Speaking of central banks, on September 16th-17th, the Feds will finally meet, in what was probably one of the anticipated and over-analyzed FOMC meetings in recent times, to discuss the results of their votes on a Fed rate hike. As grossly aggrandized as the possibility of a rate hike has been, it is an important element to consider, especially since EM countries gobbled up so much dollar-denominated debt back when it was cheap. Not only that, but the private-sector credit to GDP gaps in EM countries is growing fast; China’s alone is off 25.4% from its long-term trend, the highest of any major country, with Turkey and Brazil following close behind with 16.6% and 15.7%, respectively, far above the recommended ratio of less than 10%. A rate hike, which the CME Group predicts is a 75% probability for the upcoming meeting, is going to add to the enormous strain that the financial sectors of these countries will face. All of these factors piling up seem to spell doom-and-gloom for the rest of the world, but what of the U.S.? Well, to the excitement of the Fed, employment data, which was a serious concern during the 2008 financial crisis, is looking more and more positive month after month. As of August, the official unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, with some officials celebrating the return to ‘full unemployment’ levels . However, despite all the jubilation, productivity and actual GDP growth is still lagging way behind. Macroeconomic expert Chris Varvares estimates that “capital-equipment, software and buildings-per worker has grown just 0.3% a year so far this decade, by far the worst in at least 40 years.” Thus, real wages are also stagnant, as the yearly change rate is still hovering around 0-2% . With less cash to spend and winter months approaching, American consumers are not going to be rushing to get in line for Wal-Mart’s Black Friday sales, they’re going to be running to the banks to deposit and save. Great news for the banks, but bad news for consumption which drives the American economy. So, with the general consensus being that emerging markets will suffer greatly in the short-term at least, and that American consumer confidence and demand will slow as well, what does that mean for the average investor? Volatility. To determine volatility is to simply measure the size of changes in a security’s value over time, e.g. a higher volatility means larger fluctuations in a stock’s price in a short timespan. Volatility means different things to different people, that is, central bankers, for example, work to keep volatility at a minimum as part of their Dual Mandate to keep the prices of goods and services stable. However, speculators willing to take the risks involved can profit greatly from volatility…in the same way someone betting at the horse races can profit greatly betting on a lame horse, if you have the magic of foresight and/or are very lucky. But in all seriousness, certain investors can benefit in taking a smart position in indices which track volatility. (Source: Bank of International Settlements) (Source: Yahoo Finance) One such index tracker is the VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETN (NASDAQ: TVIX ) which tracks two times the daily performance of the S&P’s 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. The iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA: VXX ) and the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (NYSEARCA: UVXY ) are more bearish options with lesser expense ratios (0.89% and 0.95% v.s. TVIX’s 1.65%) and there are even more options, such as inverse VIX ETFs (which are essentially the opposite, i.e. betting on stability). Now , before you get your contrarian pitchforks out, there are some points that I will concede. I think Dan Moskowitz of Investopedia puts it best – “the only way to win playing TVIX is by having impeccable timing.” Going long TVIX is a sure-fire way to lose money as common sense dictates high volatility is not a permanent condition. Even further, on the contrarian side of things, TVIX has depreciated 99.97% since its 2010 debut, 77.92% over the past year! Clearly, it is a very risky game to play, yes (but so is the lottery and that’s a multi-billion dollar industry). However , the timing is perfect now. With all the recent domestic political turmoil across the world, emerging markets crashing, and the Fed signaling a tightening of monetary policy, I cannot see, save for a miracle from the Feds, the markets getting by unscathed without a few twists and turns. And speculators would seem to agree with this. According to the CTFC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as of Sept. 1st, speculators achieved an all-time record of net long VIX futures contracts, with 32,239 contracts added, double the previous record set in early February and the largest ever bet on a rise in the VIX. This is very significant; even the contrarians who would immediately disregard it and go bullish on stocks in spite have to admit that. (Source: J. Lyons Fund Management Inc.) For the average investor out there (such as myself) staying long on stocks and bonds, sticking to ETFs, or cashing out may be some of the best options available to avoid getting strung along for the ride as the markets reel and spiral. But for you aspiring speculators, hedge fund managers, or simple millionaires, this might be a very profitable time to be betting on increased volatility. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News