Category Archives: stocks

How To Get Statistically Significant Alpha In A Hurry: Financial Advisors’ Daily Digest

MFS Investment Management argues active management can consistently deliver alpha; Mark Hebner says investors would be better off seeking beta. Ronald Surz says investors need not wait decades to determine statistically significant alpha; he offers “microwave alpha,” a quick way to measure manager skill. Jack Waymire gives five reasons why mobile-optimized websites are no longer a luxury for financial advisors. To frightened investors who sense something bad is due after a seven-year bull market and amidst a wobbly economy, MFS Investment Management’s commercials touting a “significant advantage to active management” may be striking just the right chord. These investment pros are working to reduce “downside volatility” and to “consistently deliver alpha,” says the investment firm’s one-and-a-half-minute commercial on the power of active management. But of course, not everybody’s having it. RIA Mark Hebner, a proponent of indexing, applies statistical tests to MFS’ fund lineup and suggests just one out of 87 funds has any alpha to offer (and even that one could be a fluke, Hebner further argues). He concludes that investors would be better served seeking beta. Hebner has previously argued that it could take something like a century to evaluate investment skill in a statistically significant way. Comes along SA contributor Ronald Surz, an innovative thinker, and proposes a method to deliver statistical significance in years rather than decades: “microwave alpha,” he calls it . This quick-cooking alpha is achieved through portfolio simulations: “The breakthrough determines statistically significant success in the cross-section rather than across time… A portfolio simulator creates all the portfolios the manager might have held, selecting stocks from a custom benchmark – thousands of portfolios… To state an extreme example, a return of, say, 1000% is significant, and you don’t have to wait 50 years to declare it significant.” With no further ado, we’ve got many other advisor-relevant stories to start your week with: Your comments on any of the above are, as always, most welcome below.

Cisco Pressured By Enterprise Trends Ahead Of Fiscal Q3 Earnings

Negative trends in the enterprise market — large companies and government agencies — are lowering expectations ahead of Cisco Systems ‘ ( CSCO ) fiscal Q3 earnings, due out Wednesday after the market close. Many large companies are outsourcing business computing workloads to cloud computing service providers such as Amazon Web Services, part of Amazon.com ( AMZN ), lessening their need for the routers, switches and other networking gear sold by Cisco and others. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate Cisco earnings minus items will rise 2% to 55 cents, though they see revenue falling 1% to $11.97 billion. “We see three major issues into this earnings release, including weak IT data points, all signaling industrywide IT spending weakness, less visibility around service provider spending, and global macro exposure,” Kulbinder Garcha, a Credit Suisse analyst, said in a research report. “Year to date, we have seen weak IT spending indications from large bellwethers including IBM ( IBM ), EMC ( EMC ), Juniper ( JNPR ), Brocade ( BRCD ) and SAP ( SAP ),” added Garcha, who has an underperform rating on the stock. JPMorgan analyst Rod Hall, in a research report, cited negative enterprise market commentary from Intel ( INTC ), Oracle ( ORCL ) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( HPE ). Reports of slower tech spending was a factor in the stock market’s plunge early in the year. With many tech companies struggling to meet expectations recently, an in-line quarter for Cisco might be good enough to move shares higher, said Citigroup analyst Jim Suva. RW Baird’s Jayson Noland was another analyst citing slower spending of late. “Our partner survey results indicate a softer-than-expected April quarter, with improved prospects for growth for the remainder of calendar 2016,” Noland wrote in a research note. Cisco stock, up 1% near 27 in early trading in the stock market today , is about even in 2016. Cisco stock is up 20% since touching a two-year low in early February.