Category Archives: stocks

Does Analog Devices’ Soft Q3 Guidance Prove Apple’s iPhone 7 Cut?

Apple ‘s ( AAPL ) iPhone 7 expectations might have dug into guidance provided Wednesday by  Analog Devices ( ADI ), as the 3D Touch supplier topped Q2 expectations but guided to current-quarter sales that would dip 5% year over year. In early trading on the stock market today , Analog Devices shares were up a fraction, near 55.50. Fellow Apple suppliers Broadcom ( AVGO ), NXP Semiconductors ( NXPI ),  Skyworks Solutions ( SWKS ) and  Qorvo ( QRVO ) were up all by close to 2% or more. For its fiscal Q2 ended April 30, Analog Devices reported $779 million in sales and 64 cents earnings per share ex items, down a respective 5% and 12% vs. the year-earlier quarter. It was the first quarter in nine that Analog Devices’ sales have fallen and the second period of declining EPS. But both metrics beat the consensus of 29 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $777.6 million and 62 cents, as well as Analog Devices’ own guidance issued three months ago. Consumer sales toppled 27% year over year, leading a 3% fall in communications sales, Analog Devices said. Industrial and automotive sales — Analog Devices’ bread-and-butter segments — fell 1% apiece. For fiscal Q3, Analog Devices CEO Vincent Roche sees a return to consumer market growth and mid- to high-single-digit growth in the company’s business-to-business segments. But the high point of ADI’s Q3 sales and EPS guidance lagged Wall Street consensus. Analog Devices guided to $800 million to $840 million in sales and 66-74 cents, down a respective 5% and 9% vs. the year-earlier quarter, missing analysts’ model for $846.6 million and 75 cents. On average, Analog Devices’ Q3 sales have grown 13.5% year over year, trailing 20% growth in Q4. But recent reports indicate Apple might have cut its component orders for the iPhone 7, expected to be released in September.

Open Letter To Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund: Target Lions Gate Entertainment

Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund’s CEO Yngve Slyngstad recently told the Financial Times that the fund is looking to restructure compensations plans at certain companies in its portfolio. “We have so far looked at this in a way that has focused on pay structures rather than pay levels…We think, due to the way the issue of executive remuneration has developed, that we will have to look at what an appropriate level of executive remuneration is as well.” As the fund looks for a company it can target, we offer a candidate: Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF ). How Reforming Executive Compensation Creates Value For Investors We applaud the fund for looking at both the structure and the size of executive compensation packages. Many of the fund’s 9,000 holdings overpay their executives for hitting targets that don’t create shareholder value. Over the past several months, we’ve written a number of articles about the risks that excessive and misaligned executive compensation plans pose to investors. We’ve dissected examples of poor compensation plans leading to significant shareholder value destruction, from Valeant (NYSE: VRX ) to Men’s Wearhouse (NYSE: TLRD ). When boards of directors pay executives based on misleading and easily manipulated performance metrics, they harm investors in two ways. Immediate wasted money: the compensation going to executives, in the form of cash or equity, decreases the amount of cash flows available to investors. Long-term value destruction: poorly designed compensation plans incentivize behavior that leads to poor operational and strategic decisions with respect to the long-term interests of shareholders. For more evidence of the outsized impact of compensation plans on a business, look no further than Home Depot (NYSE: HD ). From 2001-2006, CEO Robert Nardelli earned $240 million in compensation. For comparison, his counterpart at Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW ) made around $30 million over that same time, about 1/8th of Nardelli’s compensation despite Lowe’s being between 1/4th to 1/3rd Home Depot’s size. In addition, Nardelli’s compensation was heavily tied to EPS-which he boosted by buying back billions of dollars of shares every year-and sales growth, which he accomplished by investing heavily in the company’s low margin, low return on invested capital ( ROIC ) wholesale business. These moves helped Nardelli’s bonus, but they created little value for investors. During Nardelli’s tenure, Home Depot’s stock was essentially flat. In the midst of a bull market and a housing bubble, Home Depot delivered almost no returns to shareholders! In 2006, activist Ralph Whitworth took a 1.2% stake in Home Depot and began agitating for a change to the company’s executive compensation practices. He was able to force Nardelli out, significantly reduce CEO pay to less than $10 million a year, and institute a compensation plan with long-term incentives for increasing ROIC. Figure 1: Stock Prices Move In Line With Return On Invested Capital Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 1 shows how Home Depot significantly underperformed Lowe’s stock during Nardelli’s tenure. It also shows how it significantly outperformed after Whitworth’s reforms, gaining more than 200%. This link between stock prices and ROIC is intuitive and well-known among more diligent investors. Increasing ROIC is the best way to create long-term value for shareholders . Linking executive compensation to ROIC has helped companies such as AutoZone (NYSE: AZO ) outperform the market for many years. Don’t just take our word for it either. S&P Capital IQ recently released a study showing a significant statistical link between ROIC improvement and outperformance. Finding A Target: Lions Gate Entertainment Lions Gate turned heads when it handed CEO Jon Feltheimer over $60 million in equity awards as part of a new five-year contract. The board lauded the company’s strong performance in 2014 as justification for the large stock award, but our numbers show that ROIC actually fell from 12.1% to 11.1% that year. As Figure 2 shows, the problem goes far beyond just 2014. Over the past five years, Lions Gate has spent a larger portion of its enterprise value on executive compensation than any of the companies in its self-identified peer group for which we have five years of data. Figure 2: High Executive Compensation + Poor Return On Invested Capital = Bad News For Investors Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings. “TTM” = Trailing Twelve Months. Figure 2 also shows that Lions Gate’s ROIC has dropped to just 2.3%, putting it near the bottom of its peer group. That’s due in part to disappointing results from several films this year. It also reflects a compensation plan that does a poor job aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests. Both annual and long-term incentive bonuses are tied to a non-GAAP metric called “adjusted EBITDA.” This metric does a poor job of measuring shareholder value creation for several reasons: Excluding depreciation and amortization means that executives are not held accountable for capital allocation. They can boost adjusted EBITDA by investing heavily in low return projects and excluding the costs. Adjusted EBITDA excludes stock-based compensation, which is a real expense and should be accounted for. Since executives are largely paid in stock, they get to largely exclude their own compensation when calculating profitability. Adjusted EBITDA makes a number of adjustments for purchase accounting, start-up losses, and backstopped expenses. These are real costs, and executives have a high degree of discretion when it comes to calculating these numbers so they can hit their targets. Tying executive compensation to such a flawed metric is a recipe for low ROIC and significant shareholder dilution. Sure enough, going back to 2005 Lions Gate has earned an ROIC below its cost of capital ( WACC ) in every year except 2013-2015, when it was buoyed by the success of the (now-ended) Hunger Games franchise. Over that time, its share count increased by 47%. Succeeding through creating original content is tough. It’s even tougher when management is not a responsible steward of capital. It should come as no surprise that the most successful company in the industry, Disney (NYSE: DIS ), is also one of the few that links executive compensation directly to ROIC. If Lions Gate wants to have any hope of creating long-term value for shareholders, it needs to cut back on executive compensation and better align compensation incentives with investors’ best interests. Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund should consider Lions Gate as its first target in its campaign against excessive executive compensation. Disclosure: David Trainer and Sam McBride receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Tesla Stock Getting Attractive At This Price, Says Goldman Sachs

Electric automaker Tesla ( TSLA ) got an upgrade Wednesday, as Goldman Sachs said the current share price isn’t accounting for the firm’s “disruptive potential.” Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault lifted his rating on Tesla stock to buy from neutral, though he kept his price target at 250, as the stock has fallen well below that level over the last three weeks. Tesla stock was up 4% in early trading on the stock market today , near 213. “While we believe the (production) volume targets are ambitious, Street and investor expectations seem more grounded, and following a 23% decline in the share price post the Model 3 unveil , we do not believe Tesla shares are fully capturing the company’s disruptive potential,” Archambault wrote in his research note. “This, combined with a more stable macro backdrop (relative to January/February) and increased confidence in Model 3 demand (from orders and our competitive benchmarking), drives attractive risk/reward.” Unlike his counterpart at Evercore last week, Archambault didn’t sound confident that Tesla could achieve its goal of 500,000 vehicles built by 2018, a new target CEO Elon Musk announced in Tesla’s its Q1 earnings report this month. The new goal is two years earlier than planned. But Archambault also thinks that most of Wall Street doesn’t really believe it either, lowering the downside risk. “While management was not clear why goals were set so aggressively, we view the adjustment as a target aimed at motivating employees and suppliers,” wrote the analyst. “We also believe these projections are heavily discounted with Street estimates for 2018 EBITDA and net income (excluding some of the more extreme outliers) coming in 21% and 24% below our base case.”