Category Archives: etf

Why Some Funds Become Closet Trackers

By Detlef Glow Click to enlarge Closet trackers or closet indexing funds are a hot topic in Europe. Market observers are questioning the added value delivered by active managers who follow their index very closely, and regulators are looking into the business models of those asset managers. A number of funds under review with regard to closet indexing charge active management fees. Even though this seems to be a worthwhile topic for discussion, the critical discussion may go too far, as Jake Moeller-Thomson Reuters Lipper’s Head of U.K. and Ireland Research-described in his article ” Closet Trackers – Storm in a Teacup ” published earlier this year. From my point of view the discussion of closet indexing misses two very important reasons that may lead fund managers to a closed indexing approach: the size of the fund and the risk management process employed by the asset manager. Fund Size One point often neglected when discussing closet indexing is that funds may need to move in the direction of the index when they grow in size. The reason for this is quite simple: The larger a fund gets, the higher the order volume in a given security becomes. Since the securities in the index normally offer the best liquidity, the fund manager may need to buy these securities to fulfill the liquidity needs of the fund and its investors. Other than a fund promoter limiting access to a given fund by subscription rules, there are two common strategies a fund manager, driven by fund flows, can use to avoid becoming a closet tracker. Neither strategy may favor the fund promoter, since they limit fund sales, but both strategies seem appropriate to protect a fund from becoming too big. The first strategy is the so-called soft closing of a fund, meaning that only investors who already hold shares of the fund can buy additional shares. This technique is very commonly used by fund promoters, but it doesn’t help when the existing investors continue to buy more and more shares of the fund. In this case it is time for a hard closing, meaning no one can buy additional shares of the fund. Since investors can still sell shares of the fund, there is a chance the fund will reopen. In some cases the fund promoter maintains a waiting list, and all redeemed shares are sold directly to an investor from this list. As with a closed-end fund, it is always possible to list an open-end mutual fund on an exchange so that the redemptions can be directed to investors looking for shares of the fund. Risk Management Process A second reason for being a closet tracker might be the risk management process of the asset manager. Risk in this case is defined as additional risk to the benchmark (index) of the fund and not the risk of losing money. The holdings of the fund are monitored against the constituents of the benchmark, and the portfolio manager has only limited room to move away from the benchmark in terms of sector, country, and regional weightings. In some cases fund managers also are restricted at the securities level, so that a negative view on a single security means this security has a 10% lower weighting in the fund than in the benchmark. For example, the weighting for the security in the index is 3% while it is 2.7% in the fund. Such internal rules and guidelines lead automatically to closet indexing, and one can’t blame the fund manager for this. Even though the risk management process is a very important part of the due-diligence process of fund selectors, selectors need to think very carefully about the impact on the fund manager coming from the overall portfolio and risk management process. From my point of view every fund that charges a fee for active management should not stick too closely to its index, since this limits the ability to deliver an above-benchmark return to the investors. But on the other hand, it is the duty of the fund selector to identify those limits and to make a decision about whether the fund is the right vehicle for the investor. For retail investors it is even harder to evaluate the performance potential of a fund, since retail investors often have the chance to select a fund only based on its past performance and the official documents such as the fund prospectus and the key investor information document (KIID). This means a retail investor has to monitor the performance of the funds in his portfolio even more closely, since that might be his only chance to identify closet trackers and to make a decision as to whether to continue holding the fund. I think litigation, especially when institutional investors are involved, such as that being undertaken in the Nordic countries, is the wrong tack, and it will/should not be successful. The investor bought the fund for a reason and needs to check it frequently to see that the vehicle is still the right product for reaching a predefined goal. The views expressed are the views of the author, not necessarily those of Thomson Reuters Lipper.

Five Top Picks In The Internet Sector With Strongest Fundamentals

The companies with the best fundamentals among large-cap Internet stocks are Facebook ( FB ), Amazon.com ( AMZN ), Netflix ( NFLX ), Alphabet ( GOOGL ) and Priceline ( PCLN ), says RBC Capital Markets. Internet trends for these top five in their respective sectors — online advertising, retail and travel — remain very consistent, with strong revenue growth year over year, RBC said in a research report. Online advertising seems to be flowing en mass to Google-owner Alphabet and Facebook, with the two now accounting for close to 55% of global online advertising revenue, up from 50% three years ago, says the report from RBC analyst Mark Mahaney. And Amazon continues to show dramatically greater-than-average growth in the online retail sector. “We believe online retail demand trends have remained solid, particularly highlighted by Amazon’s retail sales acceleration,” Mahaney wrote. But, he said, “there’s little ad oxygen for the likes of Yahoo ( YHOO ).” Online travel remains a duopoly of Priceline and Expedia ( EXPE ), while it’s increasingly hard to see anyone catching up to Netflix in terms of video-streaming subscribers, he wrote. Though shares of Netflix have continued to decline following Q1’s weak international sub guidance and domestic price change worries, “We view the fundamental global subscriber growth story as intact,” Mahaney said. Mahaney has a price target on Netflix of 140. Netflix stock was trading near 89, up nearly 2%, in afternoon trading in the stock market today . The stock is down 20% since reporting first-quarter earnings on April 18, and it’s on the IBD Swing Trader list as a potential short-sale opportunity. He has a price target on Priceline of 1,600, as growth and profitability trends remain intact. Priceline stock was up a fraction near 1,279 Monday afternoon. Priceline is down 6% since reporting Q1 earnings on May 4. On Alphabet, Mahaney’s price target is 1,000, as it remains one of the best portfolio plays on the biggest Internet trends. Alphabet stock was near 727, up a fraction, Monday afternoon. The stock is down 7% since reporting Q1 earnings on April 21. On Facebook, the price target is 165, with Mahaney saying the social media company is firing on all cylinders. Facebook stock was near 118, down 1%, but it’s up 8% since reporting Q1 earnings on April 27. The price target on Amazon is 800. Amazon stock was flat, near 709. Still, it’s up 16% since reporting Q1 earnings on April 28. It also is on Swing Trader, but as a long possibility.

Best And Worst Q2’16: Information Technology ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The Information Technology sector ranks fourth out of the ten sectors as detailed in our Q2’16 Sector Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the Information Technology sector ranked third. It gets our Neutral rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 29 ETFs and 122 mutual funds in the Information Technology sector as of April 18, 2016. See a recap of our Q1’16 Sector Ratings here . Figures 1 and 2 show the five best and worst rated ETFs and mutual funds in the sector. Not all Information Technology sector ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 25 to 384). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the Information Technology sector should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Five mutual funds are excluded from Figure 2 because their total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. The Van Eck Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA: SMH ) is the top-rated Information Technology ETF and the Fidelity Select Communications Equipment Portfolio (MUTF: FSDCX ) is the top-rated Information Technology mutual fund. Both earn a Very Attractive rating. The First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund (NYSEARCA: FDN ) is the worst rated Information Technology ETF and the Invesco Technology Sector Fund (MUTF: IFOAX ) is the worst rated Information Technology mutual fund. FDN earns a Dangerous rating and IFOAX earns a Very Dangerous rating. 506 stocks of the 3000+ we cover are classified as Information Technology stocks. Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO ) is one of our favorite stocks held by FSDCX and earns a Very Attractive rating. Over the past decade, Cisco has grown after-tax profits ( NOPAT ) by 7% compounded annually. Cisco has improved its return on invested capital ( ROIC ) from 14% in 2005 to a top-quintile 17% in 2015. The company has generated a cumulative $32 billion in free cash flow ( FCF ) over the past five fiscal years. However, in spite of the operational strength exhibited by Cisco, CSCO is undervalued and presents an excellent buying opportunity. At its current price of $28/share, Cisco has a price-to-economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 0.8. This ratio means that the market expects Cisco’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 20%. If Cisco can grow NOPAT by just 6% compounded annually for the next decade , the stock is worth $43/share today – a 54% upside. ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW ) remains one of our least favorite stocks held by IFOAX and earns a Dangerous rating. ServiceNow was placed in the Danger Zone in December 2015. Since going public in 2012, ServiceNow’s NOPAT has declined from -$29 million to -$154 million while its ROIC declined from -29% to -41% over the same time frame. The drastic decline in profits and profitability is in stark contrast to ServiceNow’s revenue growth, as the company adopted a “grow revenue at all costs strategy,” which clearly ignores profits. Making matters worse, when we placed NOW in the Danger Zone, its valuation implied significant profit growth and despite NOW falling 21% since the publish date of our report, those expectations remain unrealistically high. To justify its current price of $63/share, ServiceNow must grow immediately achieve 15% pre-tax margins (-15% in 2015) and grow revenue by 23% compounded annually for 13 years . In this scenario, 13 years from now, ServiceNow would be generating over $14 billion in revenue, slightly below Facebook’s (NASDAQ: FB ) 2015 revenue. It’s clear how the expectations embedded in NOW remain overly optimistic. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Information Technology ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Mutual Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.