Category Archives: etf

Netflix Gaining In Europe, But Faces Regulatory Mandates

Netflix ( NFLX ) is successfully fending off a host of rivals in Europe thanks to its mix of Hollywood and local content, analysts say. After examining the online video markets in the U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Spain, investment bank UBS concluded that Netflix is well positioned for growth. “We think Netflix is doing quite well across Europe despite intense focus from local competitors in each market, not to mention competition with Amazon ( AMZN ), who was earlier to enter the U.K. and Germany,” UBS analyst Doug Mitchelson said in a research report Sunday. Mitchelson reiterated his buy rating on Netflix stock, with a 12-month price target of 141. Netflix stock was up 2%, near 94.50, in afternoon trading on the stock market today , but it has been trading below its 50-day moving average since posting disappointing earnings last month. Netflix’s early success in foreign markets comes as the company is ramping up production of original shows in local languages. “Management continues to suggest that only about 20% of international viewing is from local content and that U.S. content continues to travel well everywhere, including in the rest of world markets launched this year,” Mitchelson said. “Thus, we expect Netflix to continue to focus the majority of its content budget on U.S. content, though increasingly originals and almost exclusively content with global rights.” Europe Seeking More Local Content From Video Services Last week, the Financial Times reported that Netflix and other on-demand video services could be forced to devote at least 20% of their catalogs to European movies and TV shows as part of an overhaul of the EU’s broadcasting rules. The services also would be required to prominently display European content. Streaming video services currently are not covered by laws that require national broadcasters to ensure that the majority of their content is European. Those same regulations force broadcasters to contribute financially to the production of European films and TV shows. Netflix has opposed the proposed regulations, the FT reported. Investors are increasingly focused on Netflix’s international growth, as its service nears the saturation point in the U.S., Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson said in a report Monday. He rates Netflix stock as overweight, with a price target of 122. “While in calendar year 2016 we expect international will account for 35% of revenue, we are modeling 50% by 2020,” Olson said. RBC Capital Markets analyst Mark Mahaney on Sunday maintained his outperform rating on Netflix stock, with a price target of 140. RBC’s recent surveys of online users found strong usage and high satisfaction for Netflix in the U.S. and rising demand in France and Germany, Mahaney said. RELATED: Netflix Signs Programming Deal With Hispanic TV Leader Univision

Q2 2016 Style Ratings For ETFs And Mutual Funds

At the beginning of the second quarter of 2016, only the Large Cap Value and Large Cap Blend styles earn an Attractive-or-better rating. Our style ratings are based on the aggregation of our fund ratings for every ETF and mutual fund in each style. Investors looking for style funds that hold quality stocks should look no further than the Large Cap Value and Large Cap Blend styles. These styles house the most Attractive-or-better rated funds. Figures 4 through 7 provide more details. The primary driver behind an Attractive fund rating is good portfolio management , or good stock picking, with low total annual costs . Attractive-or-better ratings do not always correlate with Attractive-or-better total annual costs. This fact underscores that (1) cheap funds can dupe investors and (2) investors should invest only in funds with good stocks and low fees. See Figures 4 through 13 for a detailed breakdown of ratings distributions by style. Figure 1: Ratings For All Investment Styles Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings To earn an Attractive-or-better Predictive Rating, an ETF or mutual fund must have high-quality holdings and low costs. Only the top 30% of all ETFs and mutual funds earn our Attractive or better rating. Absolute Shares WBI Tactical LCV Shares (NYSEARCA: WBIF ) is the top rated Large Cap Value fund. It gets our Very Attractive rating by allocating over 34% of its value to Attractive-or-better-rated stocks. Ameriprise Financial (NYSE: AMP ) is one of our favorite stocks held by WBIF and earns a Very Attractive rating. Over the past decade, Ameriprise has grown after-tax profit ( NOPAT ) by 8% compounded annually. The company has improved its return on invested capital ( ROIC ) from -2% in 2008 to 11% in 2015. Similarly, the company has increased its NOPAT margin from 11% in 2005 to 14% in 2015. Across all facets, Ameriprise is improving business fundamentals, yet the stock remains undervalued. At its current price of $99/share, AMP has a price-to-economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 1.1. This ratio means that the market expects Ameriprise to grow NOPAT by only 10% over its remaining corporate life. If AMP can grow NOPAT by just 6% compounded annually for the next decade , the stock is worth $132/share today – a 33% upside. ProFunds Mid-Cap Value ProFund (MUTF: MLPSX ) is the worst rated Small Cap Value fund. It gets our Very Dangerous rating by allocating over 37% of its value to Dangerous-or-worse-rated stocks. Making matters worse, total annual costs are a whopping 6.72%. New York Community Bancorp (NYSE: NYCB ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by MLPSX and earns a Dangerous rating. Over the past decade, New York Community Bancorp’s NOPAT has declined from -$294 million to -$80 million. Over the same time period, the company’s ROIC declined from 8% to a bottom-quintile -1%, while its NOPAT margins fell from 43% in 2005 to -13% in 2015. Worst of all, the stock has not followed this decline in operating performance and is significantly overvalued. In order to justify its current price of $15/share, NYCB must immediately achieve positive pre-tax margins of 18% (from -21% in 2015) and grow revenue by 31% compounded annually for the next 13 years . In this scenario, NYCB would be generating over $20 billion in revenue 13 years from now, which is equal to Aflac’s (NYSE: AFL ) revenue in the last fiscal year. It’s clear the expectations baked into NYCB are overly optimistic. Figure 2 shows the distribution of our Predictive Ratings for all investment style ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 2: Distribution of ETFs & Mutual Funds (Assets and Count) by Predictive Rating Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 3 offers additional details on the quality of the investment style funds. Note that the average total annual cost of Very Dangerous funds is almost four times that of Very Attractive funds. Figure 3: Predictive Rating Distribution Stats Click to enlarge * Avg TAC = Weighted Average Total Annual Costs Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings This table shows that only the best of the best funds get our Very Attractive Rating: they must hold good stocks AND have low costs. Investors deserve to have the best of both and we are here to give it to them. Ratings by Investment Style Figure 4 presents a mapping of Very Attractive funds by investment style. The chart shows the number of Very Attractive funds in each investment style and the percentage of assets in each style allocated to funds that are rated Very Attractive. Figure 4: Very Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 5 presents the data charted in Figure 4 Figure 5: Very Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 6 presents a mapping of Attractive funds by investment style. The chart shows the number of Attractive funds in each style and the percentage of assets allocated to Attractive-rated funds in each style. Figure 6: Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 7 presents the data charted in Figure 6. Figure 7: Attractive ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 8 presents a mapping of Neutral funds by investment style. The chart shows the number of Neutral funds in each investment style and the percentage of assets allocated to Neutral-rated funds in each style. Figure 8: Neutral ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 9 presents the data charted in Figure 8. Figure 9: Neutral ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 10 presents a mapping of Dangerous funds by fund style. The chart shows the number of Dangerous funds in each investment style and the percentage of assets allocated to Dangerous-rated funds in each style. The landscape of style ETFs and mutual funds is littered with Dangerous funds. Investors in Small Cap Value funds have put over 34% of their assets in Dangerous-rated funds. Figure 10: Dangerous ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 11 presents the data charted in Figure 10. Figure 11: Dangerous ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 12 presents a mapping of Very Dangerous funds by fund style. The chart shows the number of Very Dangerous funds in each investment style and the percentage of assets in each style allocated to funds that are rated Very Dangerous. Figure 12: Very Dangerous ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 13 presents the data charted in Figure 12. Figure 13: Very Dangerous ETFs & Mutual Funds by Investment Style Click to enlarge Source: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Hot Launches

By Jeff Tjornehoj Click to enlarge With just $23.9 billion in net inflows this year, exchange-traded products (ETPs) are having their slowest start since the first five months of 2010 when only $18.7 billion in net inflows were made. But the industry continues to launch new products anyway and through this week (May 18) another 88 products have been unveiled. We took a look to see which ones have had the best luck attracting cash. Through May 18 the fastest-growing ETP is the SPDR SSGA Gender Diversity Index ETF (NYSEARCA: SHE ) , which tracks a market-cap weighted index of large U.S. companies that that exhibit gender diversity in their senior leadership positions; it’s attracted $264 million this year. Not too far behind in the asset race, the WisdomTree Dynamic Currency Hedged International Equity Fund (BATS: DDWM ) has brought in $238 million. This fund holds a basket of dividend-weighted stocks headquartered outside of the U.S. and Canada and dynamically hedges foreign currency exposure for U.S. dollar investors. While three others have managed to accumulate $50 million in assets so far, the rest of this year’s launches are still waiting for investors to find them: the remaining 81 launches this year collectively hold $700 million or just as much as these five.