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United States Oil (NYSE: USO) seemed to discover support Monday after a week’s slide with energy commodity prices. After the disappointment from OPEC on the supply front, more recently we’ve received good news on the demand front. Fresh economic data from China appears to show the start of stabilization and data Monday on the Eurozone showed a pickup in growth. Given my view that supply side concerns are well-priced in and could be overdone if Iran fails to come to fruition as many expect, demand improvement should serve USO long-term. Finally, Russia’s foray in the Middle East and its tensions with Turkey also present a near-term upside catalyst I believe not incorporated in price today. The United States Oil (NYSE: USO ) had an important discovery Monday; it found support. Some are pointing to technical analysis for reasoning, but there are fundamental factors to point to. Energy prices have stabilized for now thanks largely to supportive economic data out of Europe and China. Still, given recent supply stubbornness, energy could require a geopolitical catalyst to really get going to the upside over the near-term. Because I give weight to that possibility, I can recommend immediate purchase for aggressive investors and a buy and hold strategy for all others on a positive change in demand dynamics. 5-Day Chart of USO at Seeking Alpha The United States Oil security suffered a serious setback with energy prices over the past several weeks. Most recently, the OPEC decision to keep production quotas unaltered was deflating to say the least. Energy prices still held that day thanks to the strong jobs report that lifted all ships, but the week that followed (see chart) reset a course for energy more in line with the bad news. However, with the new week Monday brought fresh data to look over. The news was very good from both China and Europe in recent days. From China : retail sales, industrial output and fixed-asset Investment all exceeded economists’ expectations. Industrial Output increased 6.2% in November, year-to-year, far exceeding the economists’ consensus view for 5.7% (by Bloomberg). Fixed-asset investment increased 10.2% through the first 11 months of 2015. Retail Sales soared 11.2%, marking the best rate of growth for all of 2015. It finally appears that China is stabilizing. From Europe, we learned Monday that eurozone industrial production increased by 0.6% in October, month-to-month, in line with expectations. It’s a level consistent with 1.9% growth year-to-year, versus 1.3% previously seen. Growth was broad-based, with capital goods growth at 1.4% and durable consumer goods growth at 1.8%. Most of the eurozone members produced growth, save for Greece. November may still present a challenge if there was a shock to the regional economy due to terrorism and concern about terrorism, but October’s data shows a regional economy that is improving long-term. Given the U.S. economy has been in growth mode, the recovery of Europe and the stabilization of China is welcome news for the demand side of the energy equation. Economic recovery in Europe would also lend to euro stabilization and as a result, dollar stabilization. If the dollar can give back some ground on such a result, then oil prices should find further fuel to stabilize and look toward better days. Obviously, the supply side of the equation remains problematic, and it has been the key factor in energy’s demise. OPEC did not allay any concerns on this front when it effectively took no action to cut production at its December meeting. However, the pickup in demand that the latest data seems to point to would help to allay concerns as U.S. production continues to come offline. Also, I’m not a pure believer in Iran’s long-term return to production, unless it strengthens its security and defense relationship with Russia. Otherwise, I wonder how far it will be allowed to progress with its nuclear program, despite recent agreement with the West. With regard to Russia, I believe it is more likely to be a catalyst for oil price rise than for decline, as it remains active militarily in the Middle East. This is made clear by its recent foray in Syria and its conflict with NATO member Turkey. I expect there is a greater chance of escalation than for calmer heads to prevail in this regard. A significant enough mistake should serve as an immediate boost to energy prices, given Russia’s importance to the market and its relationship with Iran. So, after the latest price revaluation, taking the United States Oil down to important historic lows, I see upside opportunity for buyers. Monday’s gain, however questionable after the last week’s trading, appears to illustrate stabilization. It comes on tangible footing, given the latest economic data from both China and Europe. The wildcard of Russia’s presence in the Middle East and its friction with Turkey present the possibility for swift upside reward, but I see a long-term case for purchase as well. Demand should increase as the economies of Europe and China stabilize and return to health, and that appears to be starting now. Supply remains at issue, but the issue appears well-understood and priced in enough so that any change, for instance with regard to Iran’s production, would also serve upside. Therefore, I favor long stakes in oil and the USO now. Scalper1 News
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