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Summary A way to potentially boost your returns when building a concentrated portfolio is to start with stocks that are rated highly by quantitative analysis. The Governance Metrics International, or GMI, rating system uses quantitative analysis to assess financial reporting and corporate governance, and determine which stocks are likely to substantially outperform the market. With any quantitative system, there’s a risk the analysis will be wrong, or the market will move against you. Using the hedged portfolio method can limit your downside risk. We show how to create a hedged portfolio starting with top-rated GMI stocks, and provide a sample hedged portfolio designed to limit downside risk to a 20% drawdown. In the Wake of Enron, A Focus On Financial Reporting One of the forensic accounting firms founded in the wake of Enron’s fraud was Audit Integrity, which later changed its name to Governance Metrics International (GMI), and was acquired by MSCI ‘s ESG Integration Unit last year. GMI uses a proprietary quantitative approach to analyze the financial reports and governance practices of public companies. The best-known indicator GMI uses is its Accounting and Governance Risk ( AGR ) ratings, which range from “Very Aggressive” to “Conservative.” According to GMI, companies rated “Very Aggressive” are 10 times more likely to face SEC enforcement actions than those rated “Conservative,” and 4 times more likely to file for bankruptcy. GMI uses its AGR ratings to derive its AGR Equity Risk Factor, which it considers to be a leading indication of share performance. AGR Equity Risk Factor ratings range from 1 (“Substantially Outperform Market”) to 5 (“Substantially Underperform Market”). We’re going to start with the universe of GMI’s 1-rated stocks to build a concentrated, hedged portfolio. Why a Concentrated Portfolio The point of a concentrated portfolio is to invest in a handful of securities with high potential returns, instead of a larger number of securities with lower potential returns. As Warren Buffett noted in a lecture at the University of Florida’s business school in 1998: If you can identify six wonderful businesses, that is all the diversification you need. And you will make a lot of money. And I can guarantee that going into the seventh one instead of putting more money into your first one is going to be terrible mistake. Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea. But a lot of people have gotten rich with their best idea. Why a Hedged Portfolio Because we’re not Warren Buffett. We don’t have vast wealth to absorb large losses, and hedging limits our downside risk in the event that we pick the wrong stocks, or the market moves against us. There is, of course, a tradeoff between what we are willing to risk and our potential return. Risk Tolerance and Potential Return All else equal, with a hedged portfolio, the greater an investor’s risk tolerance — the greater the maximum drawdown he is willing to risk (his “threshold”, in our terminology) – the higher his potential return will be. So, we should expect that an investor who is willing to risk a 25% decline will have a chance at higher returns than one who is only willing to risk, say, a 15% drawdown. For the purposes of this example, we’ll split the difference and create a hedged portfolio designed for an investor with $100,000 who is willing to risk a drawdown of no more than 20%. Constructing A Hedged Portfolio We’ll summarize process the hedged portfolio process here, and then explain how you can implement it yourself. Finally, we’ll present an example of a hedged portfolio that was constructed this way with an automated tool. The process, in broad strokes, is this: Find securities with high potential returns (we define potential return as a high-end, bullish estimate of how the security will perform). Find securities that are relatively inexpensive to hedge. Buy a handful of securities that score well on the first two criteria; in other words, buy a handful of securities with high potential returns net of their hedging costs (or, ones with high net potential returns). Hedge them. The potential benefits of this approach are twofold: If you are successful at the first step (finding securities with high potential returns), and you hold a concentrated portfolio of them, your portfolios should generate decent returns over time. If you are hedged, and your return estimates are completely wrong, on occasion — or the market moves against you — your downside will be strictly limited. How to Implement This Approach Finding promising stocks In this case, we’re going to start with the universe of stocks rated by GMI as likely to “substantially outperform the market”. To quantify potential returns for these stocks, you can, for example, use analysts’ price targets for them and then convert these to percentage returns from current prices. In general, though, you’ll need to use the same time frame for each of your potential return calculations to facilitate comparisons of potential returns, hedging costs, and net potential returns. Our method starts with calculations of six-month potential returns. Finding inexpensive ways to hedge these securities First, you’ll need to determine whether each of these top holdings are hedgeable. Then, whatever hedging method you use, for this example, you’d want to make sure that each security is hedged against a greater-than-20% decline over the time frame covered by your potential return calculations (our method attempts to find optimal static hedges using collars as well as protective puts going out approximately six months). And you’ll need to calculate your cost of hedging as a percentage of position value. Selecting the securities with highest net potential returns In order to determine which securities these are, out of the list above, you may need to first adjust your potential return calculations by the time frame of your hedges. For example, although our method initially calculates six-month potential returns and aims to find hedges with six months to expiration, in some cases the closest hedge expiration may be five months out. In those cases, we will adjust our potential return calculation down accordingly, because we expect an investor will exit the position shortly before the hedge expires (in general, our method and calculations are based on the assumption that an investor will hold his shares for six months, until shortly before their hedges expire or until they are called away, whichever comes first). Next, you’ll need to subtract the hedging costs you calculated in the previous step from the potential returns you calculated for each position, and exclude any security that has a negative potential return net of hedging costs. Fine-tuning portfolio construction You’ll want to stick with round lots (numbers of shares divisible by 100) to minimize hedging costs, so if you’re going to include a handful of securities from the sort in the previous step and you have a relatively small portfolio, you’ll need to take into account the share prices of the securities. Another fine-tuning step is to minimize cash that’s leftover after you make your initial allocation to round lots of securities and their respective hedges. Because each security is hedged, you won’t need a large cash position to reduce risk. And since returns on cash are so low now, by minimizing cash you can potentially boost returns. In this step, our method searches for what we call a “cash substitute”: that’s a security collared with a tight cap (1% or the current yield on a leading money market fund, whichever is higher) in an attempt to capture a better-than-cash return while keeping the investor’s downside limited according to his specifications. You could use a similar approach, or you could simply allocate leftover cash to one of the securities you selected in the previous step. Calculating Expected Returns While net potential returns are bullish estimates of how well securities will perform, net of their hedging costs, expected returns, in our terminology, are the more likely returns net of hedging costs. In a series of 25,412 backtests over an 11-year time period, we determined two things about our method of calculating potential returns: it generates alpha, and it overstates actual returns. The average actual return over the next six months in those 25,412 tests was 0.3x the average potential return calculated ahead of time. So, we use that empirically derived relationship to calculate our expected returns. An Automated Approach Here we’ll show an example of creating a hedged portfolio starting with 1-rated GMI stocks using the general process described above, facilitated by the automated hedged portfolio construction tool at Portfolio Armor . Narrowing Down Our List of Stocks To get the universe of 1-rated GMI stocks we used Fidelity ‘s screener to screen for optionable stocks rated 1, or “substantially outperform” according to the GMI AGR Equity Risk Rating. Since over 1,000 stocks met those two criteria, we added a third: 52-week price performance in the top 20% by industry. That winnowed the list to 247 names, and we picked the top 5 to input into our automated hedged portfolio construction tool: ABIOMED (NASDAQ: ABMD ) Bassett Furniture Industries (NASDAQ: BSET ) Sketchers USA (NYSE: SKX ) JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ: JBLU ) Universal Insurance Holdings (NYSE: UVE ) Using the Automated Tool In the first step, we enter the five ticker symbols in the “Tickers” field, the dollar amount of our investor’s portfolio (100000) in the field below that, and in the third field, the maximum decline he’s willing to risk in percentage terms (20). In the second step, we are given the option of entering our own potential return estimates for each of these securities. Instead, in this case, we’ll let Portfolio Armor supply its own potential returns. A couple minutes after clicking the “Create” button, we were presented with the hedged portfolio below. The data here is as of Monday’s close. Why These Particular Securities? The site included all of the entered securities for which it calculated a positive potential return, net of hedging costs. In this case, that turned out to be three of the five stocks, ABMD, JBLU, and SKX. Since it aims to include four primary securities in a portfolio of this size, and only three of the ones we entered had positive net potential returns, Portfolio Armor added one of its own top-ranked stocks, Post Holdings (NYSE: POST ). In its fine-tuning step, it added Restoration Hardware (NYSE: RH ) as a cash substitute. Let’s turn our attention now to the portfolio level summary for a moment. Worst-Case Scenario The “Max Drawdown” column in the portfolio level summary shows the worst-case scenario for this hedged portfolio. If every underlying security in it went to zero before their hedges expired, the portfolio would decline 18.78%. Negative Hedging Cost Note that, in this case, the total hedging cost for the portfolio was negative, -0.26%, meaning the investor would receive more income in total from selling the call legs of the collars on his positions than he spent buying the puts. Best-Case Scenario At the portfolio level, the net potential return is 12.07% over the next six months. This represents the best-case scenario, if each underlying security in the portfolio meets or exceeds its potential return. A More Likely Scenario The portfolio level expected return of 4.93% represents a conservative estimate, based on the historical relationship between our calculated potential returns and backtested actual returns. By way of comparison, a hedged portfolio created on Friday using the same and decline threshold (20%), but without entering any ticker symbols (i.e., letting Portfolio Armor pick all the securities), had an expected return of 6.1%. You can see that hedged portfolio in a recent article (“Investing While Guarding Against Extensive Vertical Losses”). Each Security Is Hedged Note that each of the above securities is hedged. Restoration Hardware, the cash substitute, is hedged with an optimal collar with its cap set at 1%, and the remaining securities are hedged with optimal collars with their caps set at each underlying security’s potential return. Here is a closer look at the hedge for JetBlue: JetBlue is capped here at 14.25%, because that’s the potential return Portfolio Armor calculated for it over the next several months. As you can see at the bottom of the image above, the cost of the put protection in this collar is $1,050, or 5.7% of position value. But if you look at the image below, you’ll see the income generated from selling the calls is $735, or 3.99% of position value. So, the net cost of this optimal collar is $315, or 1.71% of position value.[i] Note that, although the cost of hedging this position is positive, the cost of hedging the portfolio as a whole is negative. Possibly More Protection Than Promised In some cases, hedges such as the ones in the portfolio above can provide more protection than promised. For an example of that, see this instablog post on hedging the iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (NYSEARCA: VXX ). [i]To be conservative, this optimal collar shows the puts being purchased at their ask price, and the calls being sold at their bid price. In practice, an investor can often buy the puts for less (i.e., at some point between the bid and ask prices) and sell the calls for more (again, at some point between the bid and ask). So the actual cost of opening this collar would have likely been less. That’s true of the other hedges in this portfolio as well. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Scalper1 News
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