Author Archives: Scalper1

Nothing New About Gold

By Roger Nusbaum, AdvisorShares ETF Strategist A big part of successfully engaging in markets (success defined as not doing yourself in with poor decision making and having enough money when you need it) is revisiting certain principles that although crucial can be forgotten when they are most important. A great example of this is holding onto a small allocation to gold for its low to negative correlation to equities. I’ve written about this regularly for more than ten years with the main points being that gold continues to not look like the stock market. That was true ten years ago when equities were flattish and gold went up, it was true during the worst of the financial crisis when stocks went down a lot and gold was kind of flattish, it was true in the most recent bull market when equities rocketed and gold sunk. It is playing out as true now as equities have rolled over for the last six months while gold and mining stocks too for that matter have gone up. Play around with some ticker symbols on Google Finance and you’ll see that the S&P 500 is down high single digits for the last six months while ETFs tracking gold are up about 10% and ETFs tracking miners are up in the neighborhood of 30%. While I don’t think too many investors will want to take on the volatility that goes with the miners, the point is still the same. I continue to believe that if gold is the top performing holding you have then chances are things are going so well in the world and that seems to fit right now. Questioning gold’s role as a portfolio holding gained momentum in the media and blogs as equities continued to rally which is in part about impatience which to the intro of this post is one behavior that does investors in. This ties into a slightly bigger concept or investing belief about defense being more important than offense or as I’ve described it; smoothing out the ride. Using gold to help with that objective can be done without having to be very tactical with it; you own it and without having to figure out when equities might turn down, you have the position in place for whenever they do. Clearly this does not resonate with everyone; if it does not resonate with you then you probably don’t own any gold and if it does resonate with you, then you do have some gold but the time to make this decision is not now when volatility is sky high and emotions/indecision might also be elevated. Bigger picture still, is the importance of remembering why you chose whatever you chose for your approach to investing and knowing what type of market environments play to your approach’s strengths and weaknesses. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Additional disclosure: To the extent that this content includes references to securities, those references do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold such security. AdvisorShares is a sponsor of actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and holds positions in all of its ETFs. This document should not be considered investment advice and the information contain within should not be relied upon in assessing whether or not to invest in any products mentioned. Investment in securities carries a high degree of risk which may result in investors losing all of their invested capital. Please keep in mind that a company’s past financial performance, including the performance of its share price, does not guarantee future results. To learn more about the risks with actively managed ETFs visit our website AdvisorShares.com .

Below Zero: Negative Yields, Negative Rates And The Price Of Baked Beans

The Japanese did it. The Europeans did it. Even the educated Swedes did it. So will the Fed ever lower interest rates below zero? Markets fell out of bed last week on fears the Fed might shift from a Zero-Interest Rate Policy (“ZIRP”) that alleviated the pain of the financial crisis to a Negative Interest Rate Policy (“NIRP”) to keep the monetary stimulus to the economy alive. Why does it matter The “feasibility study” being undertaken at this stage is a long way from a policy announcement, but would indicate a very different interest rate path to December’s announcement. This volte face alone would query the Fed’s credibility. Add to that the known unknown of how markets might operate in this Through the Looking Glass world where you pay to lend money to the lender of last resort, and some basic assumptions around the supply of, and return on, capital have to be adapted. How does it “work”? The short answer is: we’ll see. In theory, by charging financial institutions to sit on surplus cash, they are forced to put that cash to work, for example lending to corporates to keep their wheels turning. In this way, negative rates act as a stimulus to the velocity of money, rather than the quantum of money supply. What are the issues? Issue number one is that it turns the fundamental relationship between providers and users of capital on its head. Aside from that are the legal and technical issues around how NIRP can be implemented in any jurisdiction. But, as we have seen so far – where there’s a will there’s a way. The sector most vulnerable is the banking sector as negative interest rates wreak havoc on Net Interest Margins – the spread between banks’ borrowing and lending rates that is the cornerstone of their profitability. Hence the rather brutal round of price discovery that took place in the banking sector as a response to this new known unknown. From negative yields to negative rates Short-term real yields on government debt (i.e. nominal yields, adjusted for inflation) went negative in 2008 during the financial crisis. Short-term nominal yields on government bonds, issued by, for example, the US and Germany, have dipped in and out of negative territory thereafter, as a safety/fear trade signaling that those investors would rather pay governments to guarantee a return OF their capital, than demand corporates to promise a return ON their capital. So economically speaking, negative yields are not new. But what is new is that negative interest rates are being adopted as a central bank policy. How have markets reacted? Markets hates grappling with new concepts where there is no empirical data from the past on which to make hypotheses. Hence the “shock” increase in risk premia despite the ostensible further lowering of the cost of capital. Renewed interest in gold is the natural reflex for those scratching their head as monetary policy grows “curiouser and curiouser”. What next? Central b anks are adding NIRP to the armory of “unorthodox” levers at their disposal to achieve orthodox aims. To what extent this new weapon is deployed will depend on the underlying development in fundamentals around growth, jobless rates and inflation targeting. Those targets set the course to which monetary policy will steer. Whether the new policy levers have more efficacy than the old remains to be seen. Baked beans, anyone? The UK’s baked bean price war of the mid 1990s, provides a parallel to the topsy turvey economics of negative pricing. To gain and retain customer market share, the big three British supermarkets slashed baked bean prices to around 10p a tin. Tesco’s then broke ranks and slashed prices further to 3p a tin (subject to max 4 cans per customer per day). Not to be outdone by its bigger rivals, Chris Sanders of Sanders supermarket in Lympsham, Weston Super Mare made history by selling baked beans for MINUS Two Pence (subject to max 1 can per customer per day). Janet Yellen – you now know whom to call. While it didn’t alter the fundamentals of the retail sector, it did mark the end of an irrational era of skewed economics. For the optimists out there, perhaps NIRP heralds the same? Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

CFA Institute Study: Disclosing Fees, Conflicts Vital To Adviser-Client Relationship

What do investors want? It’s an issue of critical importance — and concern — to CFA Institute, an organization committed to the highest standards of ethics, education, and professional excellence in the investment profession. And at no time in the history of the investment management industry has this question mattered more. Longstanding business practices are under scrutiny, stoked by acrimonious debates in the United States over the duty owed by the person giving investment advice, and by the availability of low-cost automated financial advice globally. These issues are poised to change the investment industry as we know it. Simply put, understanding the needs of investors is critical to strengthening client satisfaction and loyalty in a rapidly evolving industry. For these reasons, CFA Institute partnered with global PR firm Edelman on From Trust to Loyalty: A Global Survey of What Investors Want . In it, we investigate trust within the investment community, surveying retail investors and institutional investors around the world to examine how much they trust the financial services industry, and comparing this to the general population surveyed in the annual cross-sector Edelman Trust Barometer . While investors have a slightly more positive view than the public, our survey shows there is much more room for improvement. When asked if they trust the financial services industry to do what’s right, 61% of retail investors agreed, 57% of institutional investors agreed, and only 51% of the public agreed. Moreover, the number from the public is up 8% from five years ago — an improvement, but hardly impressive in absolute terms. These findings have practical implications for the investment management profession. The survey also explored what dimensions influence that level of trust by giving respondents actions to rank in importance and satisfaction. The gaps are eye-opening and provide a roadmap for firms who wish to strengthen their value proposition and build loyalty with investors. Paul Smith, CFA, president and CEO of CFA Institute, has argued that shortcomings like these and a lack of trust are factors that hold the investment industry back. “Building trust requires truly demonstrating your commitment to clients’ well-being, not empty performance promises or tick-the-box compliance exercises,” he has said. “Effectively doing so will help advance the investment management profession at a time when the public questions its worth and relevance.” Assessing the Gaps Between What Investors Want and What They Get Both retail and institutional investors share the view that financial professionals are falling short on issues of fees, transparency, and performance. Among retail investors, the most important actions from an investment firm are that it “fully discloses fees and other costs” and “has reliable security measures.” These even surpass protecting their portfolio from losses. Among institutional investors, “acts in an ethical manner” rated as the most important attribute, followed by “fully discloses fees and other costs.” That’s not to say that performance is unimportant — 53% of retail investors and 60% of institutional investors cited “underperformance” as the biggest factor that would lead them to switch firms. This was followed by “increases in fees,” “data/confidentiality breach,” and “lack of communication/responsiveness.” Fee Transparency Even More Important Than Returns The survey reveals that the biggest gaps between investor expectations and what they receive relate to fees and performance. For many investors, understanding fees — how much they are paying and what they are paying for — ranks above returns in their priorities. Seventy-nine percent of retail investors said it was important to them that their investment firm clearly explain all fees before they were charged, and 73% said generating returns similar to or better than other firms was important. Click to enlarge Retail investors say they are prepared to pay fees, even higher fees, if they feel these costs will add value or deepen existing services. In what areas are retail investors willing to pay more? Better protection from portfolio losses (38% say they would pay more for this) Reliable security measures to protect their data (35%) Investors also want more context to understand specific portfolio management strategies, reflecting their increasing desire to be engaged. The top client service action retail investors want is that a firm “helps me understand why my portfolio is positioned the way it is.” This is expected by 70% of retail investors, but only 46% say investment firms are adequately delivering on this — a large gap that firms should close. Disclose Conflicts of Interest Investors surveyed also want upfront conversations about conflicts of interest, with fees structured to align with their interests. They want to be sure that their managers are acting in their best interest at all times, and it is in the best interest of investment managers to clearly communicate their commitment to conflict management and resolution. As regulators and industry professionals alike grapple with the conflicts of interest associated with a variety of investment advice business models, investor preferences are clear: They want the best solutions for their unique needs, and not just the lineup of products that the adviser can receive compensation for selling. Retail investors surveyed prefer to have access to the best product for their unique needs (76%), rather than choosing from a constrained set of products, even if choosing from constrained offerings would lower their out-of-pocket expenses for investment management (24%). Click to enlarge Institutional investors had similar priorities and concerns, and in addition, they identified gaps related to the depth of understanding an investment firm has in helping them solve their problems. For these investors, they expect a firm they hire to think beyond a specific mandate and show they truly understand their organization’s priorities, liability structure, and political dynamics. Rise of Robo-Advising The study reveals key regional and demographic differences in what investors value from financial professionals, with implications for robo-advisors. Looking ahead three years, the majority of investors in Canada (81%), the US (73%), and the UK (69%) say they will still value the guidance of an investment professional to help them versus having the latest technology and tools. However, the majority of retail investors in India (64%) and China (55%) and half of investors in Singapore believe having access to the latest tech platforms and tools will be more important to executing their investment strategies. Younger respondents also strongly preferred technology to human guidance, so this is an important trend for the future. What does this mean for financial professionals? It’s simple: Investors expect more than just performance. While markets may be uncertain, there are many factors that investment professionals can control in how they conduct their business and work with clients — and these are very valuable. From transparency around fees and investment decisions to aligning their interests with their clients’, investment firms have great potential to build greater trust among investors. Show your commitment to advancing ethics and trust: