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Targa Resources’ (TRGP) CEO Joe Bob Perkins on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Targa Resources Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Earnings Webcast. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce you host for today’s conference, Ms. Jennifer Kneale. Ma’am, you may begin. Jennifer Kneale Thank you, Laura. I’d like to welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full year 2015 investor call for both Targa Resources Corp and Targa Resources Partners LP. Before we get started I’d like to mention that Targa Resources Corp., TRC or the company and Targa Resources Partners LP, Targa Resources Partners or the partnership have published the joint earnings release which is available on our website at www.targaresources.com. We’ll also be posting an investor presentation on the website later today. I’d also like to remind you that on February 17, Targa Resources Corp posted its acquisition of all the outstanding public units not already owned by TRC of Targa Resources Partners LP. Any statements made during this call that might include the company’s or the partnership’s expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements and are covered by the Safe Harbor Provision of the Securities Acts of 1933 and 1934. Please note that actual results could differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our SEC filings, including the partnership’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Joe Bob Perkins, Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Meloy, Chief Financial Officer will be our speakers today. And other members of the management team are available to assist in the Q&A session if needed. With that, I will turn the call over to Joe Bob. Joe Bob Perkins Thanks, Jen. Welcome and thanks to everyone for participating. Before we turn to the Targa’s results, I’d like to briefly discuss the closing of our buy-in transaction and also discuss our recently announced $500 million preferred private placement. Targa’s management team and our Boards of Directors are very pleased that we closed TRC’s acquisition of outstanding common units of TRP on February 17. From our perspective the simplification of Targa’s ownership structure may have been one of the most important transactions in Targa’s history and I want to thank our shareholders and common unit holders for their strong support of the transaction. But overwhelming the positive results of our shareholder and common unit holder votes reflect investor understanding that this was the right move for Targa. Targa is now better positioned from a leverage credit profile and dividend coverage perspective and that positioning creates financial flexibility as exceedingly important in uncertain markets. Looking forward we recognize that there are continued investor concerns around every company in the energy industry related to risk associated with capital markets access, risk from lower prices, risk of lower producer activity levels and volumes, counterparty credit risks and high interest in how each company will manage their balance sheet and dividends. We’ll try to address each of these topics related to Targa in some detail during the call. And we’ll try to provide you with color on our views of our risks, mitigation, how we think about the industry challenges that we face today. Let’s start with our financial flexibility and our financial strength. When we announced that TRC was buying TRP on November 3 rd , we provided two illustrative scenarios. The street consensus case and the price sensitivity case showing those cases over a three year forecast period. Additionally, in our public presentations before and after that time, we’ve provided current EBITDA sensitivities for NGOs, natural gas and crude oil price changes. One can use the information previously provided in the price sensitivity case and the EBITDA sensitivities for commodity prices to extrapolate additional scenarios for different price and volume scenarios. And in so doing one of the likely resulting conclusion should be that Targa has financial flexibility across a wide range of potential scenarios. Also Targa is the solid high yield credit and does not have rating agency created constraints relative to maintaining an investment grade rating. And separately, Targa has significant cushion relative to complying with our financial covenants. That cushion, that flexibility has further increased by the preferred private placement that we announced last week. A week ago today, we announced that we had entered into binding commitments with affiliate of Stonepeak infrastructure partners to purchase $500 million of 9.5% series A preferred stock. This is a great transaction for Targa and for our new Stonepeak investment partners. One that we structured knowing that Stonepeak and other investors share a fundamental view that the strength of Targa’s asset footprint are operational capabilities and track record of execution are not currently reflected in our current common stock and debt trading levels. From our perspective this structure accomplishes many of the objectives that we have and we announced about six months ago that we would seek alternatives to public common equity funding. The preferred pace in 9.5% dividend and the addition of warrants provides upside to our financial partner and to Targa’s common shareholders. This structure mutually benefits Targa and Stonepeak under any recovery commodity price scenario. We stated publicly in a presentation in early September that we were going to find attractive funding sources other than public equity and we patiently work to develop an attractive addition to Targa’s capital structure. With this preferred equity we are not trying to solve for any one specific variable or achieve any one specific metric instead consistent with what’s been going at Targa over the last year and a half and throughout the history of Targa and we identify a capital market opportunity or some other opportunity to do something to strengthen Targa for the future we have. In this case we indentified an opportunity to meaningfully improve our balance sheet and capital structure flexibility at very attractive terms. I think this is another example of our forward-looking mindset, similar to our small retailer preferred in October and our high yield offering in September. This is consistent with how we have always approached the business and will continue to do so in the future. We know there are significant uncertainty in the market, but one thing is certain Targa is blessed with tremendous workforce and a well positioned asset set, well positioned capabilities we will continue to identify opportunities to improve our balance sheet, maximize our financial flexibility and enhance our operational and commercial performance so that we are positioned to create a long term shareholder value regardless of the environment. We are also very excited to have Stonepeak as an important financial partner of ours. And we welcome Scott Hobbs as an observatory contributor to our board. Scott is a 35 year energy industry veteran and is well known by the Targa team. We expect to use the proceeds from the $500 million of preferred to reduce indebtedness which on the pro forma basis importantly reduces TRP’s year end compliance leverage ratio to 3.6x debt to EBITDA and we have approximately $2.2 billion of liquidity. I would like to pause here for a minute and discuss our leverage position as we see it, so that we can clear up any misperceptions that might be out there. Pro forma for the buy-in, the only real change to our capital structure is that we no longer have publicly traded units of NGLS. Our basic corporate structure remains the same in the placement of the debt. At TRC we have about $670 million of revolver, about a $160 million of term loan deal. At TRP we’ve a $1.6 billion revolver, a $225 million accounts receivable facility and publicly traded notes. There is a compliance covenant of 5.5x at TRP, but there is no other meaningful covenant or constraints on TRP leverage, TRC leverage or consolidated leverage. Pro forma for the $500 million preferred TRP compliance leverage is 3.6x versus that 5.5x compliance covenant. My simple math that means to me we have almost two turns of cushions. And with our long term often repeated target range for compliance leverage having been 3x to 4x we believe that Targa is currently in a very strong balance sheet position from a Targa historical perspective and probably relatively to others in the industry. Compliance leverage at the partnership level is the relevant constraint to overall Targa leverage. And we are appropriately comfortable managing Targa leverage at the TRP compliance level. As we move forward in time and peruse attractive growth opportunities managing the resulting consolidated leverage will be one factor for consideration. And any assumption that management won’t be focused on managing leverage is inconsistent with our track record. Just as managing leverage and managing our balance sheet is consistent with the Targa track record, Targa also has a track record for outperforming relative to other controllable factors. We are never satisfied with any set of internal forecast and I can promise you that the decision making associated with our company is fluid and evolving always seeking to outperform our internal forecast and expectations. We will continue to focus on taking the right forward looking steps for Targa, trying to improve on all controllable factors or any range of potential commodity price and activity levels. We spend each day focused on long term value creation that is our track record and that is our mindset. So in the phase of uncertain prices, uncertain activity levels and related uncertain volumes perhaps may even more uncertain by oil prices breaking $30 several times over the last month and a half, you will now be hearing a new Targa 2016 forecast, but what I hope you hear from me is confidence. Confidence that we have already taken significant steps to position Targa for success and a lower for longer environment and confidence that we will continue to identify ways to best position Targa for the future. Summarizing the reasons for that confidence, in the context of the uncertainties that I just mentioned strong 2015 results and strong business performance driven by an exceptional workforce and a premier asset footprint. Solid year end leverage and coverage we finished 2015 strong on multiple dimensions, substantial liquidity and impressive results in managing costs and improving margins. Over the long term we know that with our premier asset position we are well positioned to benefit from the upside potential of some of the following factors. NGL pricing improvements, ethane and other components and other commodity price improvements, increased ethane extraction, additional cost savings and continuous improvement in that area, increased exports, capture of new gathering and processing and capture a new downstream volumes. Continued contract restructuring to Targa’s benefit and yet to be identified opportunities for high return capital projects. Let’s now turn to discussing Targa’s performance in 2015. Despite significant commodity price headwinds throughout the year, 2015 adjusted EBITDA was $1 billion $191 million. A 23% increase versus 2014. I want t o pause on that EBITDA number for a moment and provide some additional context. At the beginning of 2015 we developed and our board approved a formal plan in January of last year using the best information we had at the time for the expected performance of Targa and including the expected impact from the addition of the assets acquired in our mergers with Atlas. Looking back at actual prices in 2015 compared to the estimated commodity prices assumptions that we used for our 2015 board approved plan, our adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by about $130 million based on price alone. Meaning we were about a $130 million in the whole to solely for price variance. But our final adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion $191 million beat the 2015 board approved plan by about $25 million, the biggest compensating drivers for VAT mitigation, we reduced OpEx across the asset footprint, improved contract margins, lower G&A and better than expected downstream LPG export and storage performance. I am incredibly proud of the collaborative work of our employees to identify best practices related to OpEx maintenance capital and contracts and then applying and continuing to apply those best practices across all areas of our operations. I am also incredibly proud of the focus of our employees to deliver savings and operational results without sacrificing safety or environmental compliance and without saving today at the expense of tomorrow. Very important work in focus continues in 2016 and we expect continuous improvement in these areas. Our 2015 results provided for a year-over-year dividend increase of 24% at TRC and modest distribution growth of 5% at TRP as we held TRP distributions flat in the second, third and fourth quarters in response to the industry cycle. Pro forma for the completion of TRC acquisition of TRP under the price sensitivity scenario presented at announcement on November 3, then published again on December 3, we showed an estimated dividend growth of 10% of TRC in 2016 versus 2015. If we compare today’s environment to that price sensitivity scenario presented less than four months ago, strip prices are significantly lower, producer volume forecast are lower and even more uncertain and equity and debt market volatility and pressures have increased. So what does that mean for Targa? Means that we will continue to make decisions the way we have throughout our history thoughtfully, prudently and patiently. We have taken steps to provide Targa with cushion which means we have time to continue to monitor markets, and to continue our dialogues with investors related to appropriate dividend strategy for Targa in this environment and across the cycle. For the fourth quarter of 2015, we elected to maintain our quarterly dividend of $0.91 per common share. Growing our quarterly dividend in the face of uncertainty didn’t make sense to us or our board. Similarly, making a rash decision to meaningfully change our quarterly dividend didn’t feel appropriate to us or board. We have many levers available to us as we think about our ability to execute in 2016 at market remains challenged, levers such as continued cost savings from OpEx, CapEx and G&A reductions. Pursuing identified opportunities to enhance EBITDA to improve volumes, contracts, high return in capital projects etcetera. Pursuing not yet identified opportunities to enhance EBITDA through similar cost savings or commercial actions. Consideration of assets sales or asset level joint ventures was strategic or financial partners and of course selected private equity placements or financing as demonstrated by the Stonepeak transaction. We are already pulling some of those levers. As evidenced by our results and actions in 2015 and early 2016. Other levers and actions along with future dividend policy will continue to be thoughtfully considered over time. So, that concludes my perhaps too long introductory remarks. Thank you for your patience and we hope that the remarks help reinforce how we were thinking about managing target in the current environment. I’ll now turn the call over to Matt. Matthew Meloy Thanks, Joe Bob. I’d like to add my welcome and thank you for joining our call today. Before we cover Q4 results, I just want to make sure there’s nothing fusion about the goodwill issue mentioned in our press release from February 9. As discussed in that release and quantified today, the partnership identified the material weakness in the control related to its review of the purchase accounting calculations used to estimate the preliminary fair value. As of the accusation date of the assets and liabilities acquired in the ATLS Merger. Goodwill at the merger date has been restated and we subsequently recognize a non-cash provisional loss of $290 million associated with the impairment of goodwill in our Field G&P segment. This loss was non-cash and does not affect EBITDA. Now, turning our attentions to Q4, other Q4 results. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 325 million, compared to 258 million for the same time period last year. The increase was primarily driven by the inclusion of TPL. Overall, operating margin increased 14% for the fourth quarter, compared to last year. And I will review the drivers of this performance in our segment review. Net maintenance capital expenditures were 25 million in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared to 24 million in 2014 bringing full-year 2015 maintenance CapEx to 98 million. And for 2016, we expect approximately a 110 million of maintenance CapEx. Turning to the segment level of summarized fourth quarter’s performance on a year-over-year based is starting with our downstream business. Fourth quarter 2015 logistics and marketing operating margin was 15% lower than the same quarter last year driven a lower fractionation in LPG export margin. LPG export margins were down 15% from the fourth quarter of 2014, when we benefitted from record volumes. On our third quarter earnings call, we mentioned that we saw, we could continue to benefit from increased ship availability, growing waterborne LPG market, and globally competitive [indiscernible] prices with propane and butane which we expected to result in fourth quarter volumes being similar to the prior quarter. However, we exceeded those expectations in the fourth quarter of 2015 and exported 5.9 million barrels per month, an increase of 4% versus the third quarter of 2015. The first quarter has been strong today, but there is variability across quarters, some seasonality, and we believe that 5 million barrels per month of LPG exports is a good estimate for 2016. Fourth quarter fractionation volumes decreased 12% from the fourth quarter of 2014, driven by lower volumes as a result of cold weather impact on producer and processing plant operation, as well as some lower customer volume and small amount of contract roll out. We have received questions over the last several months related to frac contract expiration. So, want to provide some additional color. Over the next three years, less than 5% of Targa’s frac contract expire in less than 10% over the next five years. Turning now to the Field Gathering and Processing segment. Our fourth quarter 2015 operating margin was up 64% versus the fourth quarter of 2014, driven by the inclusion of TPL, which more than offset the decline in commodity pricing. Fourth quarter 2015, natural gas plant inlet for the Field Gathering and Processing segment was 2.6 billion cubic feet per day. The overall increase in natural gas in that volume was due to the inclusion of TPL volume in West Texas, South Texas, South Oak and West Oak, and increases in volumes at SAOU, the Badlands, and Versado. At Sand Hills, volumes were essentially flat, given the system is basically full and we continue to move volume from Sand Hills to SAOU on the Midland County pipeline. Volumes declined in North Texas as a result of reduced producer activity. In the Badlands, crude oil gathered decrease to a 109,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, a 6% decrease versus same time period last year, primarily as a result of several produce for customers, shutting in existing production to frac new wells late in the fourth quarter of 2015. For the segment, commodity prices were 45% lower, natural gas prices were 44% lower, and NGL prices were 43% lower, compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. In the Coastal Gathering and Processing segment, operating margin decreased 24% in the fourth quarter compared to last year. Now, let’s move on to discuss liquidity, capital structure and hedging. Pro forma for the 500 million preferred equity private placement with Stonepeak, Targa has liquidity of approximately 2.2 billion. As Joe Bob mentioned, this means that on a debt compliance basis, which provides us adjusted EBITDA credit for material growth project that are in process but not yet complete and makes other adjustments. Our pro forma leverage at the end of 2015 was 3.6 times that to EBITDA, versus a compliance covenant of 5.5. Our fee based operating margins was 76% in the fourth quarter of 2015, and we had 74% of margins and fee-based operations for the full-year 2015. For 2016, we estimate more than 70% of fee-based operating margins. For the non-fee based operating margins, relative to our current equity volumes from Field Gathering and Processing, we estimate that we have had approximately 40% of 2016 and 20% 2017 for natural gas volumes, approximately 40% for 2016 and 20% for 2017 of common state volume and approximately 20% of 2016 and 10% of 2017 NGL volumes. We have continued to look at opportunities to add hedges and expect to add some hedges over time through a combination of swaps in cashless collars. Moving to capital spending, in our January investor presentation, we published a preliminary estimate of 525 million or less of net growth capital expenditures in 2016, with approximately 275 million committed to four major projects. CBF Train 5, the Noble Group, and condensate splitter, the Buffalo plant in West Texas, and the joint venture with Sanchez and South Texas. All four major projects will contribute to cash flow in 2016. We have another 250 million of previously identified projects and expect to spend at least a 175 million of this amount. A larger part of that capital is expected to be spend in the Badlands where we will continue to build out our infrastructure and where as you have heard from us many times before, we have been delayed by right away on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. The Badlands growth capital will add infrastructure to net producing gas and oil to our system. Natural gas volumes being flared and crude oil volumes being trucked. These projects result in immediate additional cash flow and have a quick payback. Similarly, any additional capital spend in this category will generally only be spend if the returns are significantly in excess of our funding cost and we’ll likely generate near term cash flow. Next, I’ll make a few brief remarks about the result of Targa Resources Corp. January 19, TRC declared fourth quarter cash dividend at $0.91 per common share at $3.64 per common share on the annualized basis, representing in approximately 17% increase over the annualized rate pay with respect to the fourth quarter of 2014. TRC standalone distributable cash flow for the fourth quarter 2015 was 55 million and dividends acquired were 52 million. For the full-year 2015, TRC standalone distributable cash flow was 214 million compared to a 125 million in 2014. As of January 31 st , TRC had 452 million in borrowings outstanding under a 670 million senior secured credit facility and 15 million in cash resulting in total liquidity of 233 million. The balance on TRC’s term loan fee was a 160 million. I want to provide some additional information related to the tax attributes of TRC’s acquisition of TRP. Based on TRP’s equity value and total debt on the date of the acquisition closed, we estimated a starting tax basis of approximately 7 billion. Some of that will be depreciated on a 15-year straight line basis, and some on a more accelerated basis. The net reduction in tax full income means, we do not expect to be a cash tax payer for at least five years. I also want to briefly cover some of the details related to our preferred plus one structure as published in an 8-k on Wednesday. We announced at Stonepeak because it’s agreements to invest 500 million at closing which is expected in mid-March. Quickly running over the structure. Stonepeak will receive 500,000 shares of newly created series of 9.5% preferred stock that will pay quarterly dividend. At our option, Targa may pay quarterly dividend in additional preferred shares and warrants during the first two years after closing, a two year pick option. Additionally, Stonepeak will receive approximately 7 million warrants with a strike price based on the view of the 10 day trading, of the 10 trading days prior to announcement or $18.88. Stonepeak will also receive a second tranche of warrants of approximately 3.4 million warrants with a strike price based on a 33% premium to the [indiscernible] of the 10 trading days prior to announcement, or $25.11. The warrants are detachable but cannot be exercised for six months after closing. The warrants will also net settle as Targa’s option for either cash or shares. After the fifth year, Targa can redeem the preferred shares for cash at 110 and after the sixth year and beyond at 105. If the preferred shares have not been redeemed after 12 years, Stonepeak can convert into common shares and Targa can also convert the preferred into common stock under certain conditions. From Targa’s perspective, our base case assumptions that we were redeemed the preferred share between year six and year 12, which is another one of the attractive elements of this structure as we believe that is a significant period of time to redeem at a lower all in cost of capital. With that, I’ll now turn the call back over to Joe Bob. Joe Bob Perkins Thanks, Matt. Okay. I’m never going to live that down. That was my phone that rang just a second ago, after often being the one who reminds people to have their phones off. Taking a step towards your asked questions, one of the most consistent questions that we’ve got from analysts and investor is related to counter party credit exposure. From my early days, is a start-up midstream company, we’ve always taken our counter party credit exposure very seriously. And always focused on understanding and managing the implications of each contract, going both directions to a significant extent we benefit from a highly diversified portfolio of customer positions across our multiple businesses and across our multiple geographic areas. Our forecasting process takes into account the financial position of our counter parties and we try to appropriately risk volumes and margins as their situation changes. We also monitor and manage our customer exposures on a customer-by-customer in contract-by-contract basis and we always have. And in this environment, those normal processes are on high alert. We try to not publicly discuss specific customers or customer contracts, but believe we are well positioned to manage through risk associated with potential counter party default or bankruptcy and will continue to stress our forecast with full consideration to credit risk and lower commodity price environments. Just as we constantly try to assess the volume implications of those price scenarios. I understand your concern and I believe that the best way to summarize our current situation is to state that separate from the volume and activity level when certainties that we’ve already talked about, we do not currently believe that Targa has any significant unmitigated producer contract exposures, nor do we have any significant unmitigated fractionation contract exposures that we should highlight to our investors. We understand the concerns and the interest in the questions related to counter party exposure and hope that that simple statement helps alleviate your Targa specific concerns. On our third quarter earnings preliminary color, on our expectations for Field Gathering and Processing volumes, in 2016 versus 2015. As prices have moved significantly lower since then, I think the easiest way to summarize our view of Field G&P volumes today is to say that producer activity level uncertainties are even greater now. And that our expectations for 2016 versus 2015 have been tempered. We previously said that for 2016, we expected our overall Field G&P volume growth to be flat to single digits versus 2015. In today’s environment, I still believe that overall Field G&P volumes will be positive for 2016 versus 2015. But the uncertainties associated with 2016 volumes are significant and could push us to flat or slightly negative. Providing some additional detail on that summary statement. In the Permian, recent activity has created volume growth around our West Texas system in the Midland basin, and our Versado system in the Central Basin platform and Delaware Basin. To handle the growth in the West Texas system, and to provide some relief to that system, which has been operated well over a capacity for quite a while. The 200 million cubic feet per day Buffalo plants will be in service in the second quarter of 2016. We are forecasting growth, still in 2016 for WestTX due to increased drilling efficiencies, improved well results despite the current commodity prices and decreasing rig counts. We expect volumes in the Versado’s system to be slightly higher in 2016. Driven by activity in the Northern Delaware Basin, and frankly driven by progress to-date even as we look on uncertainties into the future. So, across the Permian, we expect average volumes to increase for 2016 over 2015, but the Permian Basin rig count continues to decrease. And our view of the magnitude of the volume increase is lower relative to our last earnings call. Moving to the mid-continent. We expect volume decline in North Texas, West Oak and South Oak, to a greater extent than on our November call. Still, to some extent, price appreciation from today’s level could result in SCOOP volumes in South Oak, surprising to the upside. In the Badlands, we expect natural gas volumes to increase for 2016 versus 2015 even at the current prices. And for crude to be at similar levels, 2016 versus 2015. Both due to some continuing producer activity, and as Matt mentioned earlier, continued infrastructure buildout to capture volumes from wells already producing on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. In October 2015, we announced the joint venture with Sanchez and that agreement will result in some additional volumes in 2016, going to our Silver Oak facilities. So, in conclusion, across our Field Gathering and Processing system, based on the best information we have today, we believe that the expected volume increases in the Permian, South Texas and the Badlands were likely offset the declines in the mid-continent but not to as great of an extent as we thought in November. Downstream, as we have previously stated for LPG exports, we expect 2016 to average at least 5 million barrels per month of propane and butane exports. We’re off to a good start in 2016. And I would like to mention how proud I am of the commercial and operational team that manages a flexible and competitively advantage mix of handy mid-sized and VLCC services, as well as the competitively advantage mix of butane and propane cargoes. That benefits Targa and our customers. I guess, in closing, I want to reiterate that I am incredibly proud of our employees and want to thank them for their efforts in 2015 and 2016. Their focus, dedication, and operational and commercial execution drove strong results in 2015, despite significant headwinds from commodity prices. That focused dedication and execution will continue to translate into results in 2016 and beyond. So, with that, we’ll open it up to questions, and I’ll turn it back to you operator. Question-and-Answer Session Operator Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from TJ Schultz from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Joe Bob Perkins Good morning, TJ. TJ Schultz Good morning. Matthew Meloy Good morning. TJ Schultz I understand the commentary that you’ve bought some time to discuss dividend policy going forward. We can extrapolate, there’s some headroom on coverage, if we assume flat dividends and you certainly have other levers you can still pull. So, how’s your view over the medium term of walls to point where there is a specific dividend coverage level that you see as most appropriate for the business or is there a level of coverage too low that now you just don’t want to operate that and then would push you to change dividend policy. Just anything further you can provide on stability of the current dividend in this commodity environment? Joe Bob Perkins Thanks for the question, TJ. I would say that us thinking has not changed dramatically, and that we have time to listen to the markets. There are disparate views in the markets. Our equity in our debt are certainly dislocated in the markets. And that we don’t have additional clarity to the extent that your question suggests. TJ Schultz Okay, fair enough. You have a lot of levers on the cost side. How much more room is there on this lever in 2016, whether through OpEx or G&A, just trying to gauge how hard you’ve already pushed this through the fourth quarter result? Joe Bob Perkins First of all, I’m very proud of what’s been pushed through, good term, in 2015. Smart, well thought out cost reductions, really across our companies, across the multiple businesses, to continue to drive, for example, operating cost reductions, savings on maintenance capital without sacrificing safety or saving dollars that will cost us to spin more dollars later. That continuous performance improvement, for example, root cause analysis are taking the best performance of the top [indiscernible] of those business and rolling it to the other businesses is ongoing. Operations team has stretched targets that they believe they will achieve for 2016 [Audio Gap] continued performance improvement in those areas. We expect continued performance improvement in those areas. Matthew Meloy And just to add to that, I agree with Joe Bob in all those front. There are some factors that are going to lead in the opposite direction to higher OpEx, right. The CBF Train 5 coming on Buffalo point. We have some additional facilities coming on. So, if you’re looking at in terms of run rate, you’re going to have to increase for additional expansion at facilities coming online. Joe Bob Perkins And now, I’ll go so far as to say, now with those additional operations coming out and they’re not insignificant, you may not see increases, right, yes, okay. TJ Schultz Okay, got it. Just one more. Joe Bob, in your prepared remarks, you did walk through the potential the benefit from several things to the upside if and when things turn and you also mentioned some of the levers that you have to act on right now. And one of those that was kind of in both buckets was the potential from possible contract restructurings to your benefit. If you can expand on that opportunity where you may be seeing some need to restructure now or the potential to restructure some of the contracts and how some of that impacts EBITDA? Joe Bob Perkins Sure. First of all, I’d expand on it by saying that’s not really new for Targa. And we sometimes get questions because of companies that are sort of going from zero to 180 on a portfolio change. Ours is more like one contract at a time across our businesses and we see that as influential in today’s environment. It’s been part of the improvements we had in 2015 and we expect it to be part of the improvements we have in 2016. It insures that individual projects achieve an attractive return or they’re not done for example. And it is on every commercial person’s right on scope, but they don’t have any EBITDA estimate for you. It will be one of the mitigating factors and part of the results that we deliver. TJ Schultz Okay, thank you. Operator And our next question comes from Darren Horowitz from Raymond James. Your line is open. Darren Horowitz Joe Bob, I’ve got a G&P question for you. You had mentioned the 30% or less forecast of 2016 margin, that obviously has a little bit more POP contract exposure. And I understand the commodity price sensitivities that you previously detailed. If we were to back out the benefit of the fee-based projects that you guys have coming to service over the course of this year. And just look at the base business. Where do you want that fee-based profile to be exiting this year? And as you look to next year, upon some of those contract restructuring opportunities, how do you balance that fee-based component of cash flow versus the ability to participate in what you said a price upside potential scenario should it occur? Joe Bob Perkins I think the short answer to your question is that all of our investor would like to see that fee-based component go down, because commodity prices went up. But what we don’t have is a magic dial of saying where do we want it to be. We’re managing at in the context of the opportunities that have been presented to us over a multiyear of path. The balancing is sort of one opportunity at a time, not a magic formula that we can change from quarter-to-quarter. Darren Horowitz Okay. And then my last question. Just with regard to counterparty risk. In near terms you said that you don’t have significant unmitigated contract exposure. And I’m just wondering if you could quantify the threshold either in EBITDA o revenue terms that is co-significant by your definition? Joe Bob Perkins Okay. First of all, the traditional measure of counter parties on revenue terms is not terribly useful. We can provide those rankings, but it doesn’t help when you think about EBITDA exposure, which is what we’re trying to manage and you are interested in. Way I characterized it was reviewing it with our commercial leadership in our credit committee, one contract at a time, I don’t see a significant one, meaning hitting the radar scope of a discussion with our investors as being out there and unmitigated. I understand other companies and the issues that are being discussed and published, we don’t have anything that comes close to those levels. So, I’m not giving you a magic number. I’m giving you that consistent with what we bring to these earnings calls consistent to what we bring to our investor presentations, which is a level of interest in significance and changes to expectations. There is not anything out there. Okay? Darren Horowitz Thank you. Joe Bob Perkins I should say there is not currently anything out there, because I just looked at it three days ago. Okay. And I know commodity prices are getting worse and that a lot of EMP companies are in trouble. But we don’t have a significant unmitigated position that I would feel should have been brought to this discussion. Operator And our next question comes from Brandon Blossman from Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Company. Your line is open. Brandon Blossman Good morning, guys. Joe Bob Perkins Hi, good morning. Brandon Blossman Let me start with something positively easy. What’s the objective here as we go through the bottom of the cycle in terms of hedging and leading some exposure to the upside for ’16 and ’17? Matthew Meloy Yes. We have had as it going to track quarter-to-quarter we’ve added some hedges, but we really have not added much, where we see rally and your relative rally is anyway gas or crude. We may layer on some additional hedges. We’re not at this point looking to catch up to make up to our targeted exposures. So, we can find pockets where it may make sense to hedge an NGL component or maybe some additional gas or crude. We’ll take a look at that so sort of a significant rally in those commodity prices, I don’t see us looking to make up our head position. Brandon Blossman That’s fair enough and any general estimates down where your mark-to-market on 40% hedge positioned for 2016 you are? Matthew Meloy That will be the case that we file you will see full details on the mark for assets and liabilities when we file that. Joe Bob Perkins we got a question last call about make that already see road down on a estimate of how, it’s positive no surprise it’s positive whether we would take that off the table that’s unlikely to occur. Brandon Blossman Okay fair enough. And then Joe Bob, I appreciate the need to — here but just purely conceptual not from a defensive perspective needing to reflect the balance sheet or providing amount of cushion at dividend policy on a go forward basis as it relates to where the equity is trading at and what the markets telling you about their expectations of the dividend policy how do you spread that needle between giving cash out when the market doesn’t at this point in time appreciate that cash in terms of dividend? Joe Bob Perkins I understand your question, I think it’s interesting describing threading the needle of what the market, I pulled them with strain, cut your dividend to zero or cut it to x and other people on the call would scream you should say you would never cut your dividend that’s not much of a needle that’s a giant gap in market perceptions and we hear them both constantly as I am sure other midstream companies are hearing. So we are trying to listen to the market, the market on the margin right now the market on the margins is irrational about Targa’s equity pricing in my opinion and with cushion we have time to see how things are sorting out without making rash moves I think that’s a luxury, I am not trying to parse words I am trying to tell you exactly how I am thinking about it. Brandon Blossman Okay understood and actually appreciate that color Joe Bob that’s all from me. Joe Bob Perkins Thank you. Operator And our next question comes from Sunil Sibal with Seaport Global Securities. Your line is open. Sunil Sibal Hi good morning guys and congrats on nearly a strong quarter. Joe Bob Perkins Thanks good morning. Sunil Sibal Couple of questions from me, first off starting off with some of the areas which I mentioned seeing lot of weakness in terms of producer activity, I was kind of curious if you have any thoughts about around industry consolidation in some of those areas any opportunities you see either way? Joe Bob Perkins No I ran into a friend of mine at breakfast, why am I answering this way he is from the oil field services industry and talks about this is the time to oil field services industry will shake out and the opportunities will occur before the upturn. Having been through multiple cycles we believe there are opportunities in downturns even without trying to pick the particular time and consolidation is naturally occurring now without even transactions. Volumes are moving to the strong from the weak. You can see on the MP side struggling companies there were ownership will change in the midstream side ownership of assets in companies will change. We have said before that we are mostly looking our round, our strong asset footprint that’s the best place for us to look for opportunities. That may just be an opportunity to consolidate a volume from someone who can’t service it. It maybe a minor asset acquisition, it maybe a deal with another midstream provider to more efficiently do something those are the kind of opportunities that fall in that bucket you described this consolidation and we will keep an eye out for and part of our financial flexibility, part of the benefit of that financial flexibility is try not to turn down high return opportunities. Sunil Sibal Okay that’s helpful and then if you could talk a little bit about the Stonepeak transaction, how it kind of came about was that something again you are looking at for some time and how it really going to precipitated? Matthew Meloy Yes sure. We have been talking about preferred and looking at about is kind of a tool in our financing toolkit back, it’s the acquisition so that’s been years we have been considering whether it makes sense to do a preferred or convertible preferred. As industry conditions worsen over the course of last year as Joe Bob said earlier, I think it was early September we putting our presentation with NGLS common unit price frustrating, we were looking at alternate financing. And that included preferred, convertible preferred, potential asset sales and we executed on retail preferred offering shortly thereafter of $125 million. Really since we said that at the conference in early September we received a number of term sheets whether they are assets level preferred up to the corporate level whether it’s TRP or TRC, we had a lot of incoming and a lot of term sheets about potential structures and ideas so we have been working that really pretty hard all through last fall and the transaction with Stonepeak came together relatively quickly over in 2016 period but we have been, this is something we have been working on for months and the structure and exact terms of course change as you are going through the process but this is something general like this we have been working on for quite a period of time. Sunil Sibal Okay that’s helpful. And then couple of bookkeeping questions from me, in terms of your OpEx, I was wondering if you could provide some sensitivity of that OpEx to gas prices or even NGL prices? Joe Bob Perkins When I am talking about OpEx savings, our primary focus has been on the controllable OpEx savings much of operating cost associated with natural gas or in the case of electric power driven facilities, much of that is passed onto our customers. We keep an eye on it, we manage it to the greatest extent we can but all of the cost savings descriptions that I gave earlier in my comments we are not focused on pass through fuel type saves. Sunil Sibal Okay got it. And then, lastly how much was the cash interest expense this quarter? Matthew Meloy Yes, I think we are getting to, it looks that interest expense line you will see it looks relatively low, if you look through some of the details there we had a $30 million non-cash interest income which was an offset to the interest expense and that was due to change in the redemption value of our JV partnership for the West Oak and West Texas assets they are in a JV partnership and so there were redemption value change flows to interest expense so there is additional $30 million of non-cash interest income in that line. Sunil Sibal Okay got it, thanks guys and congrats once again. Matthew Meloy Okay thank you. Operator Our next question comes from Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies. Your line is now open. Chris Sighinolfi Good morning Joe Bob. Joe Bob Perkins Good morning Chris. Chris Sighinolfi Thanks for the added colors. Just a couple bookkeeping questions Matt with the preferred offering you have the option to take those distributions in the first couple of years and I was just curious what we should assume or if you had made a formal assumption in your modeling on what you’re going to do? Matthew Meloy No, we have not determined whether we are going to pay in cash or pick, we will determining that in our normal quarterly distribution and I guess now dividend declaration so that will be a decision made by management and the board at that time. Chris Sighinolfi Okay. And then, I apologize from my events on this, but what does the board observer mean, what I mean Scott being added to your board but you have mentioned in the release and then today on the call as an observer and I was just curious what the distinction was, as he is not sitting on a committee that he have a voting position could you just help clarify that? Joe Bob Perkins Yes, I am happy to help clarify that the primary distinction between an observer and other board member as we will operationalize it, is just official ability to vote. We’ve had a board observer in the past at TRC it was a Merrill Lynch private equity a board observer when they joined on the midstream acquisition through interest sold by over thinkers and without mentioning that person’s name they did just sit an observer on the board they contributed and brought their experience and industry understanding and that’s what we expect Scott to do as well. When you have a board vote he doesn’t officially vote and he would not be officially part of creating a quorum to vote and he will not be assigned to our compensation or audit committee, would not qualify to serve on this. Chris Sighinolfi Okay, thanks a lot. Kind of what I expected but appreciate the clarity. And then Matt, I am sorry if I missed this if you had said it in your prepared remarks, but I think typically you gave a hedge percentage on the products? Matthew Meloy Yes that is 40 and 20 for gas and 15% and 10% 2017. Chris Sighinolfi Okay and do you did you say at what levels. Matthew Meloy No that will be in our K when we file. Chris Sighinolfi Okay. And then finally, and I just wanted to quickly go back to Joe Bob so I could understand if I am interpreting what you have said correctly obviously with the roll in the cash savings associated with the roll in and then the preferred offering you have an incredible amount of head room certainly relative to much of your peer group on the compliance leverage covenants, significant amount of current liquidity not a terrible amount in terms of the near term growth CapEx that’s you have to do. And then, somewhat schizophrenic market view as to what you should do with your dividend and so am I just to interpret that flexibility is going to be forward you an ability to sort of wait and making major decisions overtime as conditions either improve or do not improve? Joe Bob Perkins There was the first part of your statement that was talking about the context I think you nailed it. And I am not trying to put new words in your mouth, I believe that the measured response that’s thoughtful response overtime trying to weigh the factors we see today and the factors we will be seeing tomorrow is the right way to interpret what I was saying. And it is a luxury to have that space to not be forced into a rash decision and that’s not poking at you, companies that were hanging on or being forced into those rash decisions that’s not where target is. We have the luxury of being thoughtful about how we balance sheet strengthen which we have and intend to keep and how we are serving our shareholders over time with dividend policy if you put it. Chris Sighinolfi Okay. Thanks so much for the time this morning, I really appreciate. Joe Bob Perkins Thanks a lot. Matthew Meloy Okay thanks. Operator Our next question comes from Helen Ryoo from Barclays, your line is open. Helen Ryoo Thank you, good morning. I have just a couple of questions when you talk about the… Joe Bob Perkins Your phone broke up a lot, can you start over. Helen Ryoo Sure, sure. Could you hear me better? Joe Bob Perkins That’s better. Helen Ryoo Okay great. Thank you. So yes, on your CapEx comment just to clarify I guess the 175 you referenced does that imply there is about 75 million of sort of wiggle room to reduce your CapEx budget for the year and also on that 175 is mostly [indiscernible] related and what’s the lead time for that the project in that 175 number? Joe Bob Perkins Okay let’s start over a bit what Matt pointed to was other projects currently showing at about 250 million and our prediction that we would spend debt lease to 175. First of all, any dollar we spend in that category is an attractive return and almost all will be immediate 2016 cash flow. So as an investor you want dollars being spent there and I just want to make sure that’s clear to everybody we are not going to be spending dollars in that category that aren’t well spent. And that investors don’t want us to spend and we have the luxury in that category of looking and being careful about the dollars we spend. That probably includes the category of unidentified projects if something comes up it will need to be very attractive return compared to the funds that will require to support it and quick cash flow is better than delayed cash flow. What Matt said was the largest piece of projects was from the battle, and then he used that as an example of immediate cash and attractive return and then said that other expenditures in that category would be similar. Does that help? Helen Ryoo Yes that does. But just to clarify so 250 is a sum of the four projects that were already identified that will cancel in 2016? Matthew Meloy No ma’am, no. Helen Ryoo Okay sorry so that’s the additional 275 is and 250 is outside of that number? Matthew Meloy Right 275 is the four projects, 250 is just coincidence that they are about the same magnitude. 250 is our estimate for a set of identified projects from a few months ago and 175 or more is the estimate of how much of that we will spend in 2016. Helen Ryoo Got it. Got it okay that is very helpful. And then the noble project it’s not coming online till 2017 but are going to get that cash flowing starting 2016 so are you… Matthew Meloy That’s not right either. Noble projects expected to come on the first quarter of 2018, but we will get cash flow in 2016 as a function of what has been a couple of renegotiation around the terms of that project or projects. We said from the beginning that we would not be economically disadvantaged by essentially one year auction as noble re-evaluated exactly what they wanted to do and payments in 2016 are a function of that. Helen Ryoo Okay that’s helpful. Just going back to your comments on counterparty risk just curious I guess you did have a little bit of Quicksilver exposure and it seems like that contract got rejected pretty early in their bankruptcy process just curious how was there anything special about that contract that made vulnerable or should we think a lot of these just transmission type of projects or contracts or typically more vulnerable in that situation if you could provide your view? Joe Bob Perkins you mentioned Quicksilver contract — currently other don’t have a problem with that what I can say is what I told you previously there is nothing significant that I need to talk to you about and if that particular contract were included I would still say there is nothing significant I need to talk to you about. That’s really the best I can do with that one right now. And I would certainly not characterize any relationship I might have with that company or we are in renegotiation around that contract as being at all typical or having duplicates in line fractionation contract portfolio. Helen Ryoo Okay. And then just lastly Joe Bob on your comment about 130 million of negative effect with the commodity downturn after Atlas acquisition is that pre, does that take into account the hedge protection that came with Atlas or is that without that number? Joe Bob Perkins Well, first of all it was only looking at performance relative to a single forecast which was the official board approved plan and yes it was after taking into effect hedge. Helen Ryoo Okay, great. Thank you very much. Joe Bob Perkins Yes, thank you. Operator And our next question comes from Jeff Birnbaum from Wunderlich, your line is open Jeff Birnbaum Yes, good morning everyone. I got kicked off the call so I apologize if I duplicate any questions, but Matt did you mention if there were any deficiencies payments that you guys received in the quarter and if not were there? Matthew Meloy No we didn’t give a break out, we typically do receive some deficiency payments on our take or pay contract whether it be fractionation or on the GMP side, we didn’t provide that detail. We didn’t feel it was significant enough to give that color. So there is some seasonality to our logistics business where we get some of those payments in Q4, but we didn’t give detail on that this time. Jeff Birnbaum Okay. Thank you and then just on the, back to LPG exports obviously you have, as you commented you seen some good strength the fourth quarter it seems like the first quarter to-date has been strong, I guess just given your comment about five million barrels a month being a good number to use this year relative to those kind of a more recent results. Can you talk a bit about how you see that driven either by seasonality or perhaps the first half relative to the back half and I mean you guys loved talked about this but have you added contracted balance since you last updated the market or not and then is that something you can quantify for us? Joe Bob Perkins I love to cross the table and Scott Pryor runs that business smiled at me. You don’t have anything long enough to hit me with so I am going to, but he can find me. Our five million barrels per month average for 2016 we believe is a good number for you and we gave that number actually some time ago. We said that 2016 was all to a good start there is some published reports where people look at ships leaving docks and that sort of thing and I guess we are saying yes, those published reports are probably right and our 2016 has gotten off to a strong start. We haven’t had a whole lot of annual performance from our docks, it’s relatively new business but there is a little bit of seasonal effect, the light first quarters going into second quarter as a function of global seasonal usage of water borne LPG and impacts something on the margin. You can see it in the last year’s performance we kind of half way expected and this year’s performance and I think that’s why either Matt or I mentioned some seasonality on average for 2016, we expect five million barrels per month I do not expect five million barrels every month. Is that help at all? Jeff Birnbaum Yes, Joe Bob thank you, it does help I guess just sort of as we think about sort of the current rate and then sort of once you get pass that seasonality I guess would you I guess the question is, do you expect a normal impact from seasonality or is there something greater this year that is taking it to the I guess what you call the five million barrels a month and accurate, a conservative number or a best guess number perhaps? Joe Bob Perkins Yes, I think you are parsing my statement. I think I said towards end of last year that I don’t better about that five million barrels a month estimate then we first put it out there and I feel at least that good. Does that help? Jeff Birnbaum It does. Okay thank you. Operator And our next question comes from Eric McCarthy from Citadel, your line is open. Eric McCarthy Hi good morning. Thanks. Joe Bob Perkins Good morning. Eric McCarthy You touched on ethane recovery in prepared remarks earlier, can you quantify or approximate ethane rejection across the system occurring? Joe Bob Perkins How much rejection is occurring? Eric McCarthy Yes. Joe Bob Perkins I don’t have that number for you I would characterize it as there is still significant amount of that thing rejection occurring among gathering and processing facility Targa and others who come into our systems where they can most economically do so you should assume that all participants are making economic decisions every week or every day about what they should reject or recover and that most of those parties are thinking about what some cost they might have in NGLs, when they make those decisions we are on a long way from significant ethane extraction relative. Eric McCarthy I guess, your peers talk about how big the opportunity is over the next three years and if I think back to how much ethane out list was rejecting and then compare that to you system or just look if I take the approximately 250,000 barrels a day of NGLs being produced, I would say it’s 50% – 75% I think rejection because that’s along the order like 50,000 – 60,000 barrels a day they are being rejected? Joe Bob Perkins Yes, not providing a Targa number I have got a question for you when people are quantifying that what price do you think they are using for OpEx? Eric McCarthy I would imagine by 2018, 2019 if there is big demand there is going to be some uplift of those residual fuel value right. Joe Bob Perkins Well, I think you definitely got to the key, you have to inset the ethane to be extracted and if the ethane is being incentive to be extracted you got to increase in ethane prices ethane won’t go up by itself there will probably be a propane response propane and ethane will probably go together. The potential for that is a combination of volumes for fractionation and volumes and price for other NGLs and you said some upside potential for Targa, but there are a lot of variables to assume to come up what is that dollar potential. And it doesn’t make sense for Targa sort of pick one volume and one price and one outcome in 2018 to try to quantify for you right now. I don’t think. Eric McCarthy Okay. On the build out of that system do you have an approximate number of the current volumes that are being trucked out either on your acreage dedication or nearby? Joe Bob Perkins Its 1000 of barrels, okay. Eric McCarthy Okay so it’s and when you talk about building that system out further is that the opportunity is to capture those volumes currently being trucked or is it to expand to the wells that are scheduled to be completed over the course of the year? Joe Bob Perkins What Matt was characterizing relative to capital investment on the band lands. Primarily additional infrastructure on the Indian reservation where we have been working for some time to capture both gas volumes being flared and oil volumes being trucked. And I think what I think you also heard and this is part of the equations is that we still expected gas to be up 2016 versus 2015 in the band lands and that all factors included, well declines we expected oil to be similar 2016 versus 2015 that are current view of activity levels. Eric McCarthy Okay alright that’s it from me thank you. Operator At this time I am showing no further questions I’d like to turn the call back over to Mr. Joe Bob Perkins for closing remarks. Joe Bob Perkins Thanks operator. To the extent anyone has any follow-up questions you are free to contact Jen, Matt or any of us. Thank you again for your time today and your interest and look forward to speaking with you again soon. Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. However, we view them as an important resource for bloggers and journalists, and are excited to contribute to the democratization of financial information on the Internet. (Until now investors have had to pay thousands of dollars in subscription fees for transcripts.) So our reproduction policy is as follows: You may quote up to 400 words of any transcript on the condition that you attribute the transcript to Seeking Alpha and either link to the original transcript or to www.SeekingAlpha.com. 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California Water Service Group’s (CWT) CEO Martin Kropelnicki on Q4 2015 Results – Earnings Call Transcript

Operator Welcome to the California Water Service Group Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2015 Earnings Results Teleconference. Today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Shannon Dean, Vice President, Corporate Communications. Please go ahead. Shannon Dean Thank you, Nova. Welcome everyone to the fourth quarter and year-end earnings results call for California Water Service Group. With me today is Martin Kropelnicki, our President and CEO, and Tom Smegal. A replay of today’s proceedings will be available beginning today, February 25, 2016 through April 25th, 2016 at 1-888-203-1112 or at 1-719-457-0820 with a replay pass code of 4899398. As a reminder before we begin today the company has developed a slide deck to accompany the earnings call this quarter. The slide deck was furnished with an 8K this morning and is also available at the company’s website at www.calwatergroup.com/docks/earningsslidesfebruary2016.pdf Before looking at this quarter’s results, we would like to take a few moments to cover forward-looking statements. During the course of the call, the company may make certain forward-looking statements. Because these statements deal with future events, they are subject to various risks and uncertainties and actual results could differ materially from the company’s current expectations. Because of this, the company strongly advises all current shareholders and interested parties to carefully read and understand the company’s disclosures on risks and uncertainties found in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Now let’s look at the 2015 results. I will pass it over Tom. Tom Smegal Thanks, Shannon. Good morning everyone. Martin and I will be going through our presentation today a little bit differently than in the past and we will be walking through the slide deck that we distributed. So we’ll refer to page numbers as we go through to follow along on where we are on the slides and I will be and just to summarize we’ll talk about the financial highlights for the year. We’ll talk about the drought of course. Our regulatory update whether California GRC, some slides that we’ve developed relating to our adopted rate base and return on equity and lastly to talk about what we expect some of the things we expect for 2016. So very briefly turning to slide 5, our financial results, our operating revenue was down just a little bit that has to do with the unbilled revenue that we will discuss in a moment. Our operations expense was relatively flat, that is lower purchase water cost offset by higher costs in other areas particularly pension costs. All of those things are subject to balancing account protection in California, our main service area. I will highlight that our net income is down 11.7 million or 20.7% and the EPS is down $0.25 of that same 20.7%. Turning to slide 6 for a little bit of explanation and just as a reminder we talked about this for a number of calls in a row here but our unbilled revenue has been a factor for us all year and just to give an update on the accounting, unbilled revenue is excluded from our revenue decoupling mechanisms. The WRAM and the MCBA track, the actual bills that are sent out to customers and so as a water utility that does billing on an everyday, every workday cycle. We will have a period of time at the end of every accounting period where there are customers who have used water and are owing us money but have not been billed for that yet. So that’s excluded from the ramp. We just show how that’s calculated and the variance there really has to do with customer demand, rate design, weather and the number of days since the number of days left in the year from the end of the billing cycle. So it can vary from year to year and we did have a dramatic variance for 2015 versus 2014. In 2014 we had a revenue increase of 6.8 million that is comparing December of 2014’s accrual to December 2013’s accrual. The effect there is warm dry December 2014 as well as higher service charges that were adopted in the 2014 GRC decision. In 2015 we saw a revenue decrease by 0.5 million due to a cool wet December of 2015. The net difference there is 7.3 million when you take the tax effect of that, that’s the 4.9 million difference in net income. Our tax benefit we talked about in the third quarter 4.8 million received in 2014 that did not recur in 2015. Our incremental drought expenses for the year ended at 4.4 million and that reduces net income by 2.8 million. Again that expense is tracked in a memorandum account. We don’t get immediate recovery but we have to apply for recovery at the commission and once we do that we can book — we can collect that revenue. Finally the last item is maintenance costs and those increased 1.6 million for the year, again pretty much drought related we believe has to do with mains and service repairers, a lot of overtime was spent this year working weeks that we wanted to fix the day that they were discovered. That’s a policy change that we made in the drought to make sure that we’re doing the right thing and we’re out there in front of any water wasting that goes on. On slide 7 it’s just a graphical representation of what I mention that shows you the bridge from a $1.19 in 2014 down to the $0.94 in 2015. I won’t go over that in any detail. On page 8, I will highlight some important positive developments from a financial standpoint and this we’re really proud of the first item is that we spend a 177 million on capital improvements this year. If you recall I think our target was 125 million to 145 million. We’re anticipating the ramp up as we go into the 2015 general rate case cycle and if you’ll recall the 693 million of capital that we’ve asked for there, our engineering group did a really excellent job in our districts putting in all the capital improvements this year really exceeded our budget expectation really dramatically. That’s going to drive our rate base growth in the future and the rate base growth as we’ll talk about later does drive earnings growth in the future. The other big item which is important for us is that our WRAM decoupling balance which has been a problem issue for us really since the beginning of the decoupling era in 2008 that actually as a result of the drought surcharges that declined to 40.6 million. So the receivable balance is 40.6 million. It was in the range of 45 million at the end of last year that is a really positive development considering all of the drought savings that we had. As you also know we completed a successful debt offering in the fourth quarter and that was a 100 million debt offering long term debt and as well as 50 million that we expect to receive as a delayed draw in March of 2016 and we also re-upped our line of credit so we have 450 million on the credit lines we did that earlier in the year. So company is on very good footing financially, lots of liquidity the ability to do the CapEx that we’re going to discuss in the deck. And we did just get a reaffirmation from S&P of our A plus stable, AA minus for our first mortgage bonds. The next thing I wanted to point out is of a little bit of a difference in how we look at return on equity versus how you would look at it just from a from 10k and income statement balance sheet review. Our California adopted return on equity which is the bulk of our business remember 94% of our businesses in California. The adopted return on equity is 9/43% and just as an addendum there we did get a delay in the cost of capital proceedings so that will be our adopted return on equity for 2016 as well for the entire year. Our GAAP ROE if you calculated from the 10-K that will be filed later today is 7.1%. In California we are not including construction work in progress actually none of the states we include construction work in progress in our rate base. So by deducting the equity equip we value our return on equity really at this 8.45%. Now that’s not at the adopted level and so we’re certainly not jumping up and down over that but we wanted to make you aware that there is a difference between what you see straight from the balance sheet and what we’re allowed to earn based on the regulation. Right now with the regulation we’re booking the interest during construction or the AFUDC, on all of our planned projects into the ending values of the plant. So we do collect that money over time later but we don’t have a return on construction work in progress. The last item on that table, is just a demonstration of what would the ROE under this scenario have been if we didn’t have the drought cost and that’s almost 9% really relatively close to the authorized ROE. Now I’m going to turn it over to Marty. Martin Kropelnicki Thanks, Tom. Good morning everyone I want to give everyone a update on what’s happening in California with the drought. Starting off talking about kind of where we are and what it shaping up to be for ’16 and then on slide 11 I’ll talk about some of our results of our efforts for 2015 to save water. First and foremost California is entering potentially the 5th straight year of a record drought. So far we have had good — our precipitation up and down the state but it has warmed up pretty quick from a water supply standpoint if you look at the major reservoirs where they are today versus where they were a year ago. They’re mostly about the same, there hasn’t been a big change in reservoir conditions year over year. The thing that has changed is the snow back and act as earlier this week as of 23rd February our snow pack for the state was 93% of normal. If you go back to the end of January, the snow pack was 124% normal and that will give you an idea how much it’s warmed up over the last 30 days in the state. So it’s good to see the snow pack is at 93% that’s certainly better than last year, but we like to see that snow pack a little higher and not have the warm weather that we’ve been having throughout the state. So the snow pack is good but really what’s going to happen they’ll do a snow pack measurement in April and that will determine kind of our next steps with the drought. Having said that the state has extended the drought emergency through October 31 as I mentioned the final allocations and targets will be set at the snowpack reading later this spring. In the updated provisions that the State Water Resources Control Board has published, it’s basically the same kind of program but they did add three provisions to the calculations. One there’s a provision for growth. So when you look at a city like Visalia for us for example, Visalia growth 3% or 4% a year. So when you locked in the drought targets based on the 2013 consumption there was no modification of those targets for growth and population connections and so that’s very difficult to deal when you have a growing city to try to hit those targets. They have added a provision for the growth modifier. They added a climate adjustment modifier. So you if you think about the drought in the state of California whether if you were coastal, you had an allocation that was potentially the same as someone who is inland where it’s much harder. So they’ve added a climate adjustment mechanism and then they added a third piece a modifier which is a drought what they call a drought resilient supply modifier. Though as you bring in recycled water projects or desalinization that will allow you to adjust your targets within a given geographical area. So as of right now applying these provisions looking at what the potential targets might be for 2016. We anticipate approximately a 2% to 4% adjustment in many of our districts depending on whether located throughout the state to be finalized after that final snow pack reading in the spring. So the drought is going to continue, it’s going to continue to be a challenge for us. We will keep our drought team fully intact. We will be making some modifications as we move forward as those rules are finalized with the State Water Resources Control Board. Having said that we do believe we have positioned well and manage well during 2015, if you go to slide 11 our customers achieved a net reduction of 28.6% exceeding the state’s requirement of reduction target of 25%. To just put that into perspective of how much water that is that 68,000 acre feet or 22 billion gallons of water say by Cal Water customers to take it one step farther that’s 46,000 gallons per connection and that’s enough water to provide everyone in California 580 gallons of water. So that’s a real big savings and we were very, very happy with the results of our drought outreach and our drought team that has done a fantastic job. Having said that to give an idea what it took to achieve those targets I just pulled some statistics from the team throughout the seven month drought period in 2015 we ran over a 1000 radio ads. We designed and we ran 23,000 plus cable TV ads, we designed and we ran in movie theaters over 73,000 radio ads. We distributed and helped install over 10,000 low flow toilets. We had processed over 50,000 of rebates for water efficient appliances and we processed and issued over 190,000 rebates for turf replacement projects. So when we talk about our drought cost you could see where a lot of the money was spent it was clearly spent on outreach and trying to work with the customer with our customer first approach to help all of our customers set their targets. As Tom mentioned that the decoupling mechanism we believe worked well and we believe it’s the right rate design, if you think about the way the rate design is working. There were a few analysts reports that were published that was worried about that the WRAM account ballooning. The way we designed the rate design was for people who were hitting their targets. They had no change in their rates. But people who went above their targets when they hit first unit above their budgeted amount was two times their highest rate. And any drought surcharge that the company received was then used to offset the WRAM balance. So people who are abusers of water were panned on the WRAM balance to the people who were doing the right thing. So we continue to believe that it’s the right rate design and we believe it’s worked well. The incremental cost associated with the drought as Tom mentioned that’s a $0.06 impact for the year that was recorded in an incremental cost memorandum account, those costs are everything I just talked about in terms of the outreach we have a full time team of 39 employees that have been working on the drought nonstop. We believe those costs are recoverable and we will have them — we will be filing for recovery later this spring and they are subject to a prudent sea review and [indiscernible] review by the CPU but we do believe they will be fully recovered. On the customer surcharges in the WRAM balances, it gave us an extra cash flow of $36.9 million and ultimately when we apply that and the changes to revenue that go through the WRAM when it all nets out we had a net reduction in our WRAM balance of 4.6 million or 10.2%. So very happy with the rate design, very happy with how the WRAM has worked in 2015 with the drought. In addition as you may recall we recently adopted a sales reconciliation mechanism and due to the conservation and the significant drop in consumption the sales reconciliation mechanism will be filed and most of our districts will have a reset on the rates that we will file for here shortly as well. So that’s another mechanism that will keep the WRAM balance from growing and keep the adopted numbers closer to what actual [indiscernible]. So it’s a nice tool to have to keep the WRAM balances minimal and keeping rates close to what the actual costs are. Moving ahead to the next slide, as Tom talked about you know we had a great year in engineering. We got a lot of capital done as you may recall we spent a good part of 2015 reorganizing our engineering division, our engineering department including a new Vice President that we hired from outside the company. We did that because of what we were anticipating in the rate case, we did file the rate case in early July seeking about $95 million in 2017 and then 23 million in steps for ’18 and ’19, 80% of that rate increase of that 95 million is capital related and so in addition we made a commitment its rate case to keep expense headcount flat. So where we really been focused on capital, what’s embedded in the rate case is a proposed capital budget of $693 million over three years. So we’re well into the process now, we are scheduled to get the advocates or the ORA report next week. We will have about 30 days to respond to it and then we move into the next phase of the GRC process which is a settlement process. So there will be more to come and more to talk about on the first quarter earnings call. Looking at one of the big drivers of capital for us on page 13, as we’ve talked about and we’ve had in our investor slides we own and operate over 600,000 miles of main and I always like to tell people that’s equivalent from flying to San Francisco to New York J.F.K and then fly back and add 500, 600 miles and you will get that’s the amount of mains that we operate. We were on a 300 year main replacement cycle which is too long and with the drought as Tom mentioned we’ve put a program in place to fix leaks same day. So it’s 24/7 if we had a leak we wanted to fix it but ultimately those main should be should be changed out every 100, 150 years and if you look at the American Water Works Association they recommend a 100 year main replacement cycle. So in this rate case we have proposed going from a 300 years cycle to a 200 year cycle. Most of our peer companies in the state of California are already at a 100 to 150 year replacement cycle. So we think we’re on the right approach with the main replacement program and look forward to working through that with the commission. In addition we have in the rate case we’re very focused on water supply reliability, more tanks, more wells doing a brackish desalinization study for here in the Bay Area. So there is a lot of capital projects, there’s one large project but most of these projects are kind of the routine kind of capital maintenance capital improvement and it’s what’s going to drive our rate base growth going forward. In addition, we had one policy change, Tom do you want to take them to the policy change we applied for? Tom Smegal Thanks, Marty. This is an item I talked earlier about the construction work in progress and it’s exclusion from rate base. We did have comments in the last rate case cycle from the rate advocate actually suggesting that it would be better for us from their perspective to move to construction work in progress instead of accumulating interest in construction into project costs. So we did make that request in the rate case. We think it will be adopted based upon the earlier motivation of or [indiscernible] and just remember that there would have an immediate effect on our adopted rate base in the rate case we’ve asked for 80 million which represents a long term average of construction work in progress and 80 million would be added to rate base on an annual basis and that roughly translates to 4 million of net income or $0.08 on a per share basis if that is adopted. Turning to slide 14, just to give you a graphical representation of our CapEx and how well we did this last year. What you can see with the yellow bars is that we have increased over the last eight years from a capital expense of 76 million, 100 million moving up, 177 million. The blue bars for ’16, ’17 and ’18 represents what we filed for in the general rate case the 205s that I showed there in 2016 that represents what we filed in California plus what we expect to spend in the other states. And we have given a range in our 10-K that we expect to spend between 180 million and 210 million in 2016. So we will forward already working on the CapEx for this year as you would expect and we look forward to that level of CapEx continuing into the future based upon the main replacement program moving to a more normal level of a 200 year cycle. Flipping to page 15, again this is a graphic representation of the company’s authorized rate base. If it’s application in California were adopted as proposed. So a lot of caution particularly on ’17 and ’18. These are the numbers we proposed to the commission there’s always changes to the rate case process but just to give you an idea that our authorized rate base in California and all the other subsidiaries about 977 million in 2014, 1 billion of [indiscernible] in 2015 and a little bit more in ’16 so there’s not much incremental rate base in ’16 but a tremendous increment in ’17 and ’18 based on the rate case CapEx as well as the inclusion of the construction work in progress. And again just to reiterate these are projections that are based upon the regulatory filing and certainly will change based upon the outcome of that proceeding. Flipping to slide 16, just to get everyone in the mind set of what that means for the company and for its earnings potential. As we’ve talked throughout the call and over the quarters since 2008 we have adopted a decoupling of revenue from earnings and that means that there’s a very — it’s very unlikely for us in our regulated arena to earn more than our authorized rate of return. So the table on slide 16 shows that based on the rate base that we have authorized and the capital equity structure that we have with the debt equity ratio there’s a maximum allowable regulated earnings and you see that for ’14, ’15 and ’16. Remember that that does not include such things as regulatory lag, any cost that we’re not recovering through the process. Other income and expense is outside the regulation area and regulatory tax differences. The point of this slide is to get us in the ballpark of where we would expect our earnings to be in ’14, ’15 and ’16 and then for ’17 and ’18 it’s really going to be dependent and the earnings of the company are really dependent upon the rate base that’s authorized particularly in California as well as by the other state regulators and the numbers that are reflected on the right hand side of the table again are the rate basis for ’17 and ’18 assuming that the application in California were granted in full and we do know that that isn’t typically the case. So now I’m going to turn it back to Marty for slide 17. Martin Kropelnicki Great. So let’s talk about 2016 and what to expect. First and foremost as I mentioned earlier, continued drought conditions and mandatory restrictions in the State of California. We don’t see that going away now until the end of October and this will be a standing kind of agenda item that will update everyone on the quarterly calls. Based on current conditions we expect drought expenses to reduce earnings per share between $0.05 and $0.10 a share and again those costs will even though they are expensed in the period they will be recorded in a drought memorandum account that’s already been authorized and we apply or recovery of that at a later date. It’s the third year of rate case cycle. So you we know limited rate relief, we had $5 million in escalation plus a miscellaneous advice letter filings. It’s the greatest period of regulatory lag. One of the questions people ask me is well you have a year round balance in account which covers your revenue, you got your production costs balancing account you’ve got a health care balancing account, you’ve got a pension balance account, well what else is there well? Well there’s labor and as Tom mentioned with the leaks we told our team across the state you fix leaks 24/7, you don’t let water run. Any incremental costs like that are going to hit the labor line. You’ve chemicals, you have filters, as water conditions change throughout the state change. It can become more challenging from a water quality perspective. So those cost of treating water are not covered by any type of balancing account, those are forecasted into the rate case and any significant changes in water supply that we have to change treatment we have to absorb those cost and try to get them back in the next rate case. So it’s the greatest period of regulatory lag. So we’ll be very, very tight with our operating budgets this year. We did put in the slide deck here the 2015 tax rate which is 36% and we anticipate a tax rate of 38% in 2016. We did noticed and some of the questions we got from our investors is that they were missing some of the tax estimates or they would take a one-time tax adjustment and take it out in perpetuity. And when you have things like the maintenance repairs, deduction and currently congress is extended bonus depreciation that will cause the tax rate to move around but for us in terms of 2016 we’re anticipating a 38% tax rate. In addition we have a capital range which is a new all-time high for the company of $180 million to $210 million subject to the adjustments of the pending rate case that’s a big capital program for us and that’s why the reengineering or engineering was really important to us. So we did reorganize the department to focus on expedited capital delivery and getting all the projects done on scope, on schedule, on budget. A couple things to mention as well to keep on everyone’s radar screen we do have two commissioners in the State of California that will term out at the end of 2016 so we’ll be watching that and see who will become two of the commissioners, one of them is Commissioner Sandoval who has been our water commissioner. So that will be worth watching in the state to see how that plays out. In addition we announced in the fourth quarter we have a new board member that I believe is very significant. We hired Greg Aliff we invited him to join our Board, Greg has 38 years with Deloitte & Touche. He has a CPA. He recently retired as Vice Chairman and Senior Partner of Deloitte and Head of their U.S. Energy and Natural Resources. In his career he’s done a lot of things most of it’s centered around utilities including heading their sustainability practice. He also served on the Board of the Deloitte U.S. practice. So Greg truly is a utility expert and another financial expert. He’s our third financial expert that we have on the Board that really has a grasp of the regulatory mechanisms and processes and how they work and so are very, very honored to have Greg on our Board and look forward to working with them. So what are our focal points for 2016? First and foremost the drought, continue what we’ve been doing to help our customers hit their mandatory conservation targets. We don’t see that changing anytime soon. Second thing is the GRC, the GRC is a big deal. A lot of resources get burnt up and used up in the process but it’s going to be a focal point of the company and our goal is to try to drive up the GRC to conclusion before the end of the year on schedule. And the third thing is one of the capital program. Make sure that we are getting that capital on the ground, that we’re getting it closed and that we’re getting it embedded in rates and that will be our 2016 which will be a blink of an eye and I’ll be a year later we will be here talking about what we achieved in 2016. So with that operator we would like to open it up for questions please. Question-and-Answer Session Operator [Operator Instructions]. And we will take our first question from Spencer Joyce with Hilliard Lyons. Spencer Joyce Just a couple of quick ones from me, first off I know you mentioned the drought memoranda account had grown to about 4.4 million and I was hoping you could refresh us on the time table for making a recovery filing. I guess correct me if I’m wrong, at some point we will work that even as somewhat of an addition to the general rate case. Is that correct? Martin Kropelnicki Well it’ll be incremental to the rate case so essentially we will file an advice letter later most like an advice letter later this spring and then once that’s approved we will book that revenue. It used to be before we decoupled when we had memoranda accounts we would book the revenue as it was billed. So as that account balances worked out it was incorporated in rates and that’s when we recognized the revenue. Now that we have decoupled the balance in accounts it will happen as once the commission completes it’s prudency review and they authorize the collection of that memorandum account we will book all that revenue at once as it’s collectible. Spencer Joyce Okay. So if we file this spring would — is it correct to assume that we would only be filing for amounts accrued to that point so say if we file May 1st, we may go kind of May 1 through December and not accrue that additional expense? Martin Kropelnicki Yes. That’s right there’s going to be a delay for the 2016 expenses because the memorandum account deals with incremental expenses, there’s a proving to the commission that these expenses are actually incremental that you know we backfill the positions that we’re assigned to this drought task and all that. So we’re really looking at the 2015 costs and the small amount that was in 2014. Those costs are what we would file for in 2016. Any costs that are incurred in 2016 are likely to be filed in 2017. Spencer Joyce So those costs that we file for in 2016 that would likely be a net income benefit at some point in 2017? Well it depends on the length of time of the commission review. This is an informal review not a application filing. So I would anticipate that the review would take 90 to 120 days. So we’re talking about most likely what would that be? Probably a third quarter type event but it could be early or it could be later. I would hope that we would get recovery of that within 2016. Operator [Operator Instructions]. We will take our next question from Jonathan Reeder with Wells Fargo. Jonathan Reeder So I might have missed it in your remarks Marty, the 2% to 4% adjustment you said in the conservation goals kind of across the district that you expect this spring. Is that like allow more usage or would it just increase the level that they have to conserve? I miss which direction it’s going? Martin Kropelnicki It would allow for more usage. So essentially if you look at the comments of the State Board right now they’re anticipating — we had a 25% kind of total target for the state last year in 2015, they are talking about an approximate 20% target for ’16 but again that’s subject to the final snow pack reading here in April. So it’ll allow customers to use a little bit more water essentially and it’ll vary by region by region which is nice. The other thing I’ll tell you from a rate design perspective that we’re looking 70% to 80% of our customers are doing a great job and hitting their targets and we have that 20% that are going over their numbers. We’re looking at trying to incorporate in our rate design to call the dead band, you know that’s not a technical rate making term. But for example if Tom has a water budget of 10 units and he uses 11, on that 11th unit Tom will pay two times the highest rate and if you assume Tom hit his target all year [indiscernible] pretty mad when he gets that one unit at the super high rate. So a dead band essentially would put a little bit of a buffer in there before the surcharges kick in and again we have been very happy with our customer responses across the Board and we serve a very diverse slice of California from low income areas to very, very high income areas and overall just 70% to 80% of our customers have just done a fantastic job at hitting those targets. Jonathan Reeder Okay. So if you implement that dead band and that might I guess impact how quickly you I guess recover — under recovered WRAM balance, is that right how you made some headway there because of the surcharges? Martin Kropelnicki That would reduce the surcharges, remember also that Marty mentioned the sales reconciliation mechanism. So the extent that we had a 28% drop in our sales in ’15. We’ve adjusted our sales targets within the rate design by 10% to 15% across the Board. So they were actually collecting more cash throughout the year in base rates. So that is going to have the opposite effect and hopefully the combination that you won’t change the pace of recovery of the WRAM balance. Tom Smegal I think the other thing too, Jonathan again the surcharges are being paid by 20% to 25% of our customers who go well above their targets, their authorized water budget. So that dead band will basically give the customers who are been doing the right thing a little bit of breathing room. But the ones who really you know basically where we have collected the majority of the surcharges, I think they’re going to continue to go away over their budgets and those are people who tend to be less price sensitive and they just continue to write the check. So it’ll be interesting to see a year from now how that plays out. Jonathan Reeder Okay. So that’s good there and then I guess the other part the you mentioned the higher usage. If it does move to 20% that should hopefully help the unbilled revenue issue in ’16 where that’s actually may be a tailwind turnings, is that accurate? Martin Kropelnicki Again it’s very hard to say because it’s so dependent upon really the usage in December and so month the month it may have an impact really comes down for the annual basis it really comes down to December of ’15 versus December of ’16. And remember we’re incorporating – we’re as good as we are based upon the surcharges because we’re incorporating the unbilled surcharges as well, the drought surcharges into that number. If we get to October and that drops off we could still have a problem of unbilled in ’16 and expected to normalize later. Tom Smegal Yes I think Jonathan , a lot of times I think people get — the unbilled can be complicated but it’s just a revenue accrual at the end of the quarter. So if consumption is going down your revenue accrual is going to go down, if consumption starts going up at the end of the accounting period your revenue accrual is going to go up. So it’ll follow that and then it’s just subject to you know weather conditions and where we have seen more of the violent swings in the unbilled balance or the revenue accruals is been where we’ve had significant shifts in weather. So as Tom mentioned a warm dry December it was a $6 million pick up and now this year we had a really a wet December, a lot of rain in December and it ram back the other way. Jonathan Reeder Unfortunately unbilled not going through WRAM and just been kind of a timing issue, it creates a noises for the quarter, for the year and for the investors that maybe aren’t paying as close of attention. Martin Kropelnicki Right. And really that’s kind of why we’re pointing in those last few slides of the deck to sort of what’s the core earnings potential of the company just to get focused on that. It is noise related to that unbilled issue and it does float up and down and try to kind of pass through that and say what should we really expect this company to earn. Jonathan Reeder Right. So turning to the rate base forecast. What you showed does that included the 80 million pick up from the [indiscernible] or would that be incremental to your forecast? Martin Kropelnicki That does include that. The 1.3 billion – 4 billion estimate for ’17 is California GRC as filed which includes [indiscernible]. Jonathan Reeder Okay. And then why wasn’t there much of an increment to rate base in 2016 given you know the high level of CapEx in ’15? Martin Kropelnicki Remember this is the authorized, this is not the actual rate base that we went in and calculated what’s there on the balance sheet as far as the rate base goes. This is what ended up being additional authorized rate base. Two things drive that, one is that if you look at our CapEx, the 177 million about 60 million of that, 65 million of that is still in SEWIP and so it’s not earning a regulated return. There was an increase to the SEWIP balance from ’14 to ’15. So that’s part of it. There’s also timing issues associated with the rate case, they’re looking at an weighted average plant and a lot of our CapEx was at the end of the year so we’re looking at 177 million through the end of the year. A lot of it is necessarily going to get incorporated into ’15 whereas it would get incorporated for the following year. Jonathan Reeder Okay. And so the projections you’re showing are they average rate base or are they year end balances? Martin Kropelnicki Those are average rate base, so that is the weighted average rate base that we’ve applied for with the commission for ’17 and ’18 plus what we in the other states. Jonathan Reeder Okay. So that’s the total company rate base not just California? Martin Kropelnicki That’s right. That’s the total company rate, yes. Jonathan Reeder And then I guess last question and then I will let some other people get in there but the higher level of CapEx that you’re doing so does require that advice letter recovery for the portion that was above the authorized amount in the last GRC and I guess there is like a little bit of a lag involved there, is that how to kind of think about those higher amounts? Martin Kropelnicki Yes. I think there’s two things, remember in the GRC process. The last year GRC was filed in mid-2012 and so to forecast out what we’re going to spend and what we’re authorized to spend in 2015 is a little bit of a stretch from that vantage point from the vantage point of when you initially file. So part of the CapEx for ’15 is anticipating the recovery in the 2017 test year. So we do have potentially a lag between what the actual rate base and what’s the adopted rate base for ’16. That kind of what you’re talking about there. Some of these projects are advice letter projects and we will be filing for recovery of some of the advice letter projects throughout the year. The difficulty in predicting those into our earnings for ’16 is really the timing of the commission’s authorization for recovery as we go through the year as you get later, later in the year you get less and less of a recovery within the year. So we do have a number of advice letter capital projects that we expect to file but that the amount of revenue that we can expect from that is fairly limited based upon when we think we’re able to file that during the year. Jonathan Reeder So last thing to understand, you were talking about kind of the headwinds against achieving that maximum regulate earnings should we also think I guess [indiscernible] on SEWIP is I guess offsetting a portion of that? Martin Kropelnicki Well I mean those are it’s really timing differences, so when we say the AFUDC on the SEWIP what we’re talking about is including those costs and we have for the last 15 years included those costs in our rate base figures as the products are completed and recognized in rate base and so that adds whatever it adds 2% to 5% of the project cost based upon how much interest happened during the period that the project was under construction. So what you’ll see is an initial bump based on the SEWIP and the trend will be that for each project going forward there will be no capitalized interest included in the project cost of the trajectory of CapEx would decline somewhat over what it would have been including interest during construction. Jonathan Reeder Right, but until that potential change like for 2016 when we look at what you said the maximum allowable regulated earnings I guess why you’re still accruing AFUDC that potentially offset some of the cost recovery and regulatory lag those kind of headwinds. Martin Kropelnicki It does but you don’t see it right away, I think that’s what I’m getting at. That gets capitalized and incorporated into the plant that’s built in 2016. Operator [Operator Instructions]. It appears we have no further questions in the queue at this time. Martin Kropelnicki Okay. Well thanks everybody for joining us and we look forward to discussing our first quarter results at the end of April. Thanks very much. Tom Smegal Thanks everyone. Operator And that does conclude today’s conference. Thank you for your participation. Copyright policy: All transcripts on this site are the copyright of Seeking Alpha. 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Department Store Stocks Rally Hard In ’16: Are They Back From Dead?

Are department store chains sitting ducks in the new retailing jungle of the Amazon.com ( AMZN )? It seems that in 2016 so far, bullish investors would disagree. IBD’s Retail-Department Stores industry group has a trashy rating for six-month relative price performance — at No. 158 out of 197 groups and subgroups as of Thursday’s newspaper — the group is also up more than 10% since Jan. 1. Only four other groups, including Food-Meat and Mining-Gold, can match that performance. What’s more, a positive trend within the Retail sector is emerging; five more retail subgroups — discount & variety, leisure products, apparel and shoes, restaurants and auto parts — show year-to-date gains of 3% or more. The S&P 500 is down 5%. Macy’s ( M ) has the largest market cap in Retail-Department Stores at $13.6 billion. The 37 RS Rating is wretched. Yet the stock is up more than 23% since Jan. 1. Even with the stout gains, Macy’s is still 41% below its 52-week peak of 73.61. Macy’s continues to see slumping sales; in the past four quarters, they fell 1%, 3%, 5% and 5% below year-ago levels. Yet the big box retailer is still profitable; Wall Street sees earnings in fiscal 2017 (ending in January next year) slipping only 3% to $3.80 a share. That’s still sharply above the $1.29 it pocketed in fiscal 2009 amid the Great Recession. Macy’s has mastered the practice of making every week feel like Black Friday. Customers are bombarded with big-discount coupons nearly every week via email, the Sunday paper or by snail mail. It seems to be working. Its one-day Saturday Sale events have brought loyal customers into its cavernous stores. Macy’s strives for innovation; on Feb. 18 it unveiled a new line of men’s clothing with snowboarding and skateboard superstar Shaun White. The collection pledges to reflect White’s “adrenaline-pumping, eclectic style.” Macy’s has driven its annual pretax margin to the 7% to 8% level over the past five years, up from the 3% to 5% range seen from 2008 to 2011. Nordstrom ( JWN ), No. 2 in market cap at $9.6 billion, has rebounded in recent days following its Q4 report of a fifth quarter in a row of declining EPS (-11% to $1.17, despite a 4% pickup in sales) and is up more than 5% year-to-date. Watch to see if the stock can climb back near its 200-day moving average, near 63 for now. Kohl’s ( KSS )  ($8.7 bil market cap) and Dillard’s ( DDS ) ($3 bil), both forecast to grow FY 2017 profit by 6%, are also struggling to regain their long-term 200-day moving averages.