Author Archives: Scalper1

Applied Materials Q3 Guidance Tops By $300 Mil After Narrow Q2 Beat

No. 2 chip-gear maker Applied Materials ( AMAT ) toasted Wall Street’s current-quarter guidance expectations late Thursday and reported in-line Q2 metrics, prompting shares to rise in after-hours trading. Late Thursday, Applied Materials stock was up more than 4% in after-hours trading Thursday, after the company posted its Q2 earnings results. Shares closed down a penny in the regular session in the stock market today , at 19.91. Top rival ASML ( ASML ) stock fell 1.3% Thursday. Soon-to-merger KLA-Tencor ( KLAC ) and Lam Research ( LRCX ) stocks split the difference, down and up less than 1% each in the regular session. IBD’s 34-company Electronic Semiconductor-Manufacturing industry group fell nearly 1%. For the quarter ended May 1, Applied Materials reported $2.45 billion in sales and 34 cents earnings per share ex items, flat and up 17%, respectively, vs. the year-earlier quarter. Sales edged analyst views for $2.43 billion and EPS beat the consensus for 32 cents. Three months ago, Applied Materials guided to a 5%-10% sequential increase in sales, implying $2.37 billion to $2.48 billion, and 30-34 cents. Applied Materials guided to a 14%-18% quarter-over-quarter jump in current-quarter sales, implying $2.79 billion to $2.89 billion and topping the consensus of 22 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters for $2.51 billion. Sales would be up 14% vs. the year-ago quarter. EPS minus items guidance for 46-50 cents was a dime above Wall Street at the low point, and would be up 45.5%.

Junk Bond ETF ANGL Soaring: Will Its Flight Last?

Heightened volatility is driving investors to safe havens, making 2016 the year of the bond market. While long-term bonds are the undisputed winners, the high yield corner has drawn attention over the past three-months on investors’ drive for higher yields and a rebound in oil price. In addition, high-yield spreads have tightened significantly from 8.64 on February 12 to 6.36 currently, as per the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread , making junk bonds attractive. This suggests that investors are now demanding lower premium than comparable Treasury bonds to compensate for the risk. However, the risk of default is on the rise, dampening the appeal for junk bonds. This is because the resumption of the slide in commodity prices and renewed global growth concerns are weighing on companies’ profits and balance sheets yet again. As per Moody’s Investors Service, global junk bond defaults will accelerate to 5% by the end of November, up from the previous forecast of 4.6% one month ago, and 3.8% in March. Fitch Ratings expects high yield bond defaults to climb to 6% this year from 4.5% last year and touch the highest level since 2000 (read: Junk versus Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETFs ). Given the heightened credit risk and low rate environment, investors thronged the high yield quality fund – VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: ANGL ) . The fund gained 12.3% in the year-to-date time frame, outperforming the broad bond fund (NYSEARCA: BND ) and junk bond fund (NYSEARCA: JNK ) by wide margins. ANGL in Focus This ETF seeks to track the performance of the BofA Merrill Lynch US Fallen Angel High Yield Index, which focuses on the ‘fallen angel’ bonds. Fallen angel bonds are high yield securities that were once investment grade but have fallen from grace and are now trading as junk bonds. This unique approach gives the portfolio 248 securities that are widely spread across them, with none holding more than 1.65% of assets. The fund has an effective duration of 5.67 years and year to maturity of 9.33. Additionally, the product mainly comprises BB and B rated corporates, which together make up for 85.3% of the asset base. Bonds from energy and material sectors occupy the top two positions with 25.2% and 22.1%, respectively, while financial and communications round off the top four with double-digit allocation (read: all the High Yield Bond ETFs here ). ANGL has amassed $158.7 million in its asset base while trades in moderate volume of 82,000 shares a day on average. It charges a relatively low fee of 40 bps per year from investors and yields 5.20% per annum. Behind The Success of ANGL The fallen angels strategy is immensely successful this year as the number of fallen angels has increased substantially on a series of debt downgrades among energy and material firms – the top two sectors of the ETF. In this regard, Moody’s snatched investment grade ratings from 51 companies and gave them the junk status at the end of the first quarter, up from eight in the fourth quarter and 45 for the whole of 2015. These downgrades have boosted the performance of the ETF as bond price generally rebounds after losing an investment grade rating. Additionally, the rebound in oil prices from the 12-year low reached in mid-February injects further strength into these bonds and the ETF. As a result, fallen angels bonds tend to have lower default rates than their more traditional junk bond counterparts, thus offering better risk-reward profiles. These have a history of outperformance in nine out of the last 12 calendar years, according to Market Vectors. Moreover, the outperformance of ANGL was spurred by its higher average credit quality as about three-fourths of the portfolio carry the upper end rating (BB) of the junk category, leaving just less than 4% to the risky CCC-rated and lower. Link to the original post on Zacks.com

Fed To Hike In June? Expected ETF Moves

Taking most investors by surprise, minutes from the Fed April meeting pointed to interest rate hike possibilities in June. While this seemed unfeasible a few days back, a volley of upbeat economic data lately sparked off possibilities for further policy tightening. Also, plenty of positive vibes were felt in the market, including a healing labor market and the latest uptick in global sentiments buoyed by stabilization in China and oil. All these opened the door for a likely hike in June. Most Fed officials sought signs of economic improvement in the second quarter including a strong employment and inflation scenario. Inflation rose at the quickest clip in three years in April, as the consumer price index jumped a seasonally adjusted 0.4% (read: TIPS ETF (NYSEARCA: TIP ) Hits New 52-Week High). Upbeat Data Points Though April’s non-farm payroll reading of 160,000 was below the estimated 205,000 and the prior-month reading of 208,000, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5%. Other key indicators including workweek and average hourly earnings showed increases. Hourly earnings in April rose 0.3% month over month and 2.5% year over year. Meanwhile, overall retail sales expanded 1.3% in April from March, representing the largest gain since March 2015. April retail sales beat economists’ forecast of a 0.8% rise . The University of Michigan indicated that its consumer sentiment index rose 6.8 points to 95.8 in early May, marking the strongest reading since June (read: Retail Sales Back to Health; ETFs to Watch ). Since consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. GDP, April retail sales data indicates that the U.S. economy is progressing at a decent clip to end Q2 and is less likely to falter like it did in Q1. In the first quarter, the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.5%, marking a two-year low. The housing market is also giving bullish signals. Lately, the economy was gifted with strong new home construction and building permits data. All these might encourage the Fed to take the next policy tightening decision sooner than expected. The last hike was seen in December 2015. Investors’ Perception Following the release of the minutes, investors’ bet over the possibility of a June hike shot up to 34% from 19% (according to CME Group) as indicated by the prices for futures contracts on the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate. And by late Wednesday, traders wagered on a 56% possibility of a hike by July, up from 20% on Tuesday. Possible ETF Moves Some subtle moves in various markets and asset classes are likely to be observed if the Fed goes hawkish in June or July. Below we discuss a few ETFs that were among the biggest movers and could remain in focus ahead. PowerShares DB USD Bull ETF (NYSEARCA: UUP ) As widely expected, the U.S. dollar will likely gain strength. The U.S. dollar ETF UUP was up about 0.7% on May 18. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: IEF ) The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury jumped 11 bps to 1.87% on May 18, following the Fed minutes. The ultra-popular bond ETF IEF shed over 0.8%. But since global growth worries are still extensive with Brexit fears looming large, the intermediate and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds should be in fine fettle. SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA: KRE ) Banking stocks should rally if the Fed hikes in June as these perform better in a rising rate environment. KRE added 4.24% on May 18, 2016. PowerShares FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PXH ) Emerging markets ETFs will likely be losers if the Fed goes ahead with a hike. Dearth of cheap money inflows would hit this space. PXH was down about 1.4% on May 18. iShares Select Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA: DVY ) The dividend ETFs, one of the biggest beneficiaries of subdued Treasury yields, might stall a bit if the Fed hikes sooner than expected. However, it all depends on how the global market shapes up and investors’ appetite for risk. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEARCA: VTI ) Normally, the initial reaction of a rate hike is a slide in stock prices. However, the reaction should vary across capitalization and the turbulence should settle down with time. Total stock market ETF was down 0.01% on May 18, and may be under pressure immediately after the tightening move. Link to the original post on Zacks.com