Author Archives: Scalper1

Is Amazon Ocean Shipping Worth Millions In Free Cash Flow?

With annual ocean shipping hauling in $350 billion a year in revenue, there is good reason why Amazon.com ( AMZN ) is interested in the business. E-commerce leader Amazon is planning to launch a global shipping and logistics operation that will compete directly with UPS ( UPS ) and FedEx ( FDX ), Bloomberg reported Tuesday, saying it had reviewed documents for the plan, called “Dragon Boat.” Bloomberg wrote that the new operations would expand Fulfillment By Amazon (FBA), which provides storage, packing and shipment of goods from third-party sellers. Such sellers make up a significant portion of its e-tail growth. An ocean shipping business alone could generate substantial returns — more than $100 million in free cash flow, Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen told IBD. That’s assuming the goods would be ingested into FBA’s supply chain — which aims to eventually squeeze out the middlemen, paperwork and headaches from logistics and delivery. The cost savings Amazon expects to see by owning the supply chain end to end, and the charges it could levy third-party sellers (or other merchants) would generate that free cash flow, generally defined as cash generated by operations minus capital expenditures. “It’s attractive for Chinese merchants to get into Fulfillment By Amazon centers right now,” Petersen told IBD. “Even with my conservative model, which would not make Amazon a large freight forwarder (though) less than a fraction of 1% of the overall ocean shipping business, it could easily earn more than $100 million in free cash flow.” Peterson says Amazon’s 90 or so fulfillment centers in the U.S. would easily be able to handle 450 containers every week. (The number of fulfillment centers is from Flexport’s data, Amazon does not disclose that). Based on current shipping costs, that would easily net Amazon $100 million in free cash flow, Petersen says. His estimate also assumes ocean shipping prices dig themselves out of the current slump. Rates are about half of what Petersen expects in the long run. San Francisco-based Flexport provides software and expertise that simplifies the international shipping process. Alibaba, Amazon Competition Grows The Bloomberg story said Amazon’s Dragon Boat program also will pit against its Chinese counterpart Alibaba ( BABA ) to gain share of cross-border e-commerce, which is expected to grow to $2 trillion by 2020. The world’s largest retailer , Wal-Mart ( WMT ), already does something similar when it takes possession of freight in China. But Wal-Mart doesn’t re-sell the freight shipping service, and Amazon might, according to analysts. Wal-Mart did not return requests for comment. Southington, Conn.-based Ocean Audit founder Steve Ferreira agrees with Petersen that ocean shipping could be lucrative for Amazon, and he says the company could well disrupt the shipping market. Ocean Audit specializes in detecting errors in ocean freight billing errors. The fact that Amazon last August filed initial paperwork for what might be the Chinese-side of Amazon’s ocean shipping division, Ferreira told IBD, suggests to him that the company is far along in developing its shipping operations. Amazon Would Be ‘Game Changer’ Ferreira calls Amazon’s potential entry into the ocean freight business a “stunning game changer.” He says the Seattle-based e-commerce firm could “theoretically enter the market and start moving goods at below the current market cost.” Amazon might well be gearing up to do just that. Ferreira says he believes Cong Pan , a Beijing-based Amazon attorney, is getting all the “paperwork” for Amazon Ocean set up. He says Beijing-based Amazon Vice President Brian Xue would run the ocean freight operation. Amazon did not return requests for comment. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has often repeated his mantra of putting customers before profits. Additional free cash flow could be used to lower the cost of Amazon’s goods or begin to offer essentially free parcel shipping for shoppers willing to wait, says Peterson. “If I had to read the mind of Jeff Bezos, he might not go after the free cash flow,” Petersen said. Baird analyst Colin Sebastian agrees with Petersen’s assessment. “I would caution that Amazon likes to use projects and other things to subsidize its core business,” Sebastian told IBD. “Amazon might not see any free cash flow because it would be absorbed into other businesses.” Sebastian says  he expects Amazon will move in stages into the transportation and logistics sector. “Amazon takes an incremental approach to new businesses, and they’re not going to create a competitor to DHL right away,” he said. But Sebastian says he sess enormous potential. “There’s a lot of potential disruption,” he said, “if Amazon plays its cards right.”

Time For Buy-Write ETFs?

The year 2016 saw an appalling start on the bourses as last year’s headwinds spilled over this year with deepening woes. This is especially true as the world’s second-largest economy is not showing any sign of reviving anytime soon and the global oil market continues to be overloaded. These two issues have been thwarting global economic growth and raising threats of deflation (read: 5 ETF Plays for a Bear Market ). In fact, both the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded their projection for world economic growth. The World Bank cut its growth forecast to 2.9% for this year from 3.3%, while IMF expects the global economy to grow 3.4% this year, down 0.2% from its previous estimate. Moreover, IMF warned that the global economy is on the verge of another financial meltdown. The World Bank stated that persistent weakness in China and a worse-than-expected slowdown in Brazil and Russia have worsened an already bleak global economic outlook. Further, on the domestic front, weak Q4 corporate earnings, a strong dollar, uncertain timing on the next interest rates hike and a spate of weak economic data are weighing heavily on investors’ sentiments. In particular, the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace of 0.7% in the fourth quarter after having advanced 2% in the third quarter and 3.9% in the second. With this, the rate of economic expansion in 2015 is the same as that of 2.4% in 2014. In such a sluggish backdrop, investors are looking to provide capital appreciation opportunities in the equity world with simultaneous downside protection. A gainful option for now could be the ‘Buy-Write’ strategy. Buy-Write Strategy in Focus A buy-write is an option strategy that involves buying a stock or a basket of stocks and then selling or writing call options on those same assets. With this process, the portfolio aims to generate additional monthly income from the call option (premiums collected). If the product stays flat or declines slightly, investors keep the premium and their stock. However, if prices rise, investors only receive the premium and the stocks are sold at the price that was agreed upon on the covered call. As such, the products would probably underperform in bull markets, as this strategy eats away the potential gain especially in a short time frame. However, investors seeking to make a play on the broad U.S. equity indices using this strategy could consider the following ETFs (read: 6 Quality Dividend ETFs for Safety and Income ): PowerShares S&P 500 BuyWrite Portfolio ETF (NYSEARCA: PBP ) This fund tracks the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index, which measures the performance of a hypothetical buy-write strategy on the S&P 500 Index. This strategy includes holding a long position of the stocks in the S&P 500 and selling a succession of covered call options, each with an exercise price at or above the prevailing price level of the S&P 500 Index. The fund has amassed $314.6 million in AUM and trades in average daily volume of nearly 180,000 shares a day. The product is a bit pricier than the other choices, charging 75 bps in annual fees. The ETF has an annual yield of 2.34% and has shed 5.8% so far this year. Horizons S&P 500 Covered Call ETF (NYSEARCA: HSPX ) This ETF seeks to match the performance of the S&P 500 Stock Covered Call Index, which holds a long position in the stocks of the S&P 500 Index while at the same time, short (write) call options on option-eligible stocks in the S&P 500 Index. The fund has accumulated $57 million in its asset base and charges 65 bps in fees per year from investors. Volume is light as it exchanges less than 5,000 shares in hand on average daily basis. The ETF has 5.43% in annual dividends and has lost 7.7% in the year-to-date timeframe (read: Buy-Ranked Large Cap Value ETFs in Focus ). Recon Capital NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (NASDAQ: QYLD ) This ETF follows the CBOE NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Index, which is designed to buy a NASDAQ-100 stock index portfolio, and writing (or selling) the near-term NASDAQ-100 Index covered call option, generally on the third Friday of each month. The product has $30.2 million in AUM and trades in light volume of under 18,000 shares a day on average. Expense ratio came in at 0.60% and annual dividend yield is higher at 10.45%. QYLD has lost 9.7% so far this year. AdvisorShares STAR Global Buy-Write ETF (NYSEARCA: VEGA ) This fund is actively managed and looks to provide investors with consistent, repeatable returns across all types of market environments. This may be done by using a proprietary strategy known as Volatility Enhanced Global Appreciation. VEGA is primarily a fund of funds and employs a Buy-Write or Covered Call overlay for its global allocation strategy using ETPs. The ETF has amassed $20.5 million in its asset base, while trades in average daily volumes of 4,000 shares. It charges a higher fee of 2.15% a year from investors and is down 5.7% in the same time period. iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN (NYSEARCA: BWV ) This is an ETN option and tracks the similar index as that of PBP. Unlike PBP, the ETN carries credit risk from the issuing institution – Barclays. The note is less popular and less liquid as depicted by its AUM of $9 million and average volume of under 1,000 shares. The ETN charges 0.75% in fees and expenses and has lost 6.9% in the year-to-date timeframe. Bottom Line Though these products have delivered negative returns from a year-to-date look, yields are impressive, making up for most of the losses incurred so far. As such, these are appropriate for investors seeking high levels of current income and a hedged exposure to the large cap U.S. equities. It is worth noting that the funds will lag significantly during a boom time, but will be an interesting choice in flat or declining markets, especially for investors seeking extra income in a volatile environment. Original Post