Author Archives: Scalper1

Best And Worst Q1’16: Information Technology ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings

The Information Technology sector ranks third out of the ten sectors as detailed in our Q1’16 Sector Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter , the Information Technology sector ranked second. It gets our Neutral rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 28 ETFs and 109 mutual funds in the Information Technology. See a recap of our Q4’15 Sector Ratings here . Figures 1 and 2 show the five best and worst-rated ETFs and mutual funds in the sector. Not all Information Technology sector ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 25 to 397). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings. Investors seeking exposure to the Information Technology sector should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The PowerShares Dynamic Semiconductors Portfolio (NYSEARCA: PSI ) is excluded from Figure 1 because its total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5 Click to enlarge * Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity. Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings The Fidelity Advisor Communications Equipment Fund (MUTF: FDMIX ) is excluded from Figure 2 because its total net assets are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums. The Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA: SMH ) is the top-rated Information Technology ETF and the Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund (MUTF: VITAX ) is the top-rated Information Technology mutual fund. Both earn a Very Attractive rating. The ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK ) is the worst-rated Information Technology ETF and the Rydex Internet Fund (MUTF: RYINX ) is the worst-rated Information Technology mutual fund. ARKK earns a Dangerous rating and RYINX earns a Very Dangerous rating. 511 stocks of the 3000+ we cover are classified as Information Technology stocks. Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT ) is one of our favorite stocks held by SMH and earns an Attractive rating. Going back to 1998, the earliest year in our model, Applied Materials has grown after-tax profit ( NOPAT ) by 10% compounded annually. AMAT currently earns a 12% return on invested capital ( ROIC ) and has generated over $2.8 billion in free cash flow over the last three years. Despite the nearly two decades of strong business operations, AMAT shares are significantly undervalued. At its current price of $16/share, AMAT has a price to economic book value ( PEBV ) ratio of 1.1. This ratio means that the market expects Applied Materials to grow profits by only 10% over its remaining corporate life. If Applied Materials can grow NOPAT by just 5% compounded annually (half its historical rate) over the next decade , the stock is worth $20/share today – a 25% upside. Trimble Navigation (NASDAQ: TRMB ) is one of our least favorite stocks held by ARKK and earns a Dangerous rating. In five of the past six years Trimble has generated negative economic earnings . In fact, the only time TRMB generated consecutive years of positive economic earnings was during the economic boom from 2004-2008. Since then, the company’s ability to create shareholder valued has deteriorated. Since 2008, the company’s ROIC has declined from 10% to 6%. Investors have taken notice of the downward trend in Trimble’s operations as the stock has fallen 26% over the past year, but shares remain overvalued. To justify its current price of $21/share, Trimble must grow NOPAT by 15% compounded annually for the next 17 years . This expectation seems highly optimistic given the recent history of deteriorating business operations at Trimble. Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Information Technology ETFs and mutual funds. Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Mutual Funds Click to enlarge Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings D isclosure: David Trainer and Kyle Guske II receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme. Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Roku Sides With Cable TV Partners In FCC Set-Top Box Brouhaha

FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler’s proposal to open up the TV set-top market does not have the support of one of the biggest video streaming set-top makers, Roku, which has partnered with cable TV firms. “We have not been advocating for a rule making in this area at this time,” Tricia Mifsud, a Roku spokeswoman, told IBD. “While we are known for selling streaming players, it is only one area of our business. Customers also access our platform through smart TVs and streaming players that operators deploy.” Comcast ( CMCSA ), Charter Communications ( CHTR ) and Time Warner Cable ( TWC ) are among cable TV firms that could be affected by Wheeler’s proposal. AT&T ( T ), which provides U-verse pay-TV service, also has protested Wheeler’s set-top box rules. The Federal Communications Commission is expected to vote on whether to move forward with the set-top box initiative on Thursday. The agency could adopt new rules by year-end. Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Google has drawn the wrath of cable TV firms in the wake of the Wheeler’s proposal because it may target the TV advertising market. Tivo ( TIVO ) is another company that could take advantage of new set-top box rules, analysts say. Wheeler aims to make it easier for consumers to switch from set-top boxes rented from cable TV companies to devices sold by consumer electronics or Internet companies. The FCC says making programming bundles sold by pay-TV companies accessible from a wider range of devices is not a threat to copyright protections . Roku recently raised $45.5 million in a funding round and appears to have shelved plans for an initial public offering. Critics say the FCC’s proposal is not needed because of technology and marketing shifts already underway. Time Warner Cable in New York City is testing a cable service that doesn’t require a set-top box. Its slimmed-down programming package is available through a broadband connection and Roku’s streaming device. “In addition to Time Warner Cable, we also have a similar arrangement with Charter where they are buying streaming players to offer in a bundle,” added Roku’s Mifsud. “Overseas, we have partnerships with Sky in several countries and Telstra where we have licensed use of our platform and they have deployed their streaming video services to co-branded streaming players.” Amazon.com ( AMZN ), Roku and others sell Internet sticks, or dongles, that provide access to Web video. Some cable firms still do not provide access to Netflix ( NFLX ), or YouTube apps on their Internet-ready set-top boxes.

Market Lab Report – Premarket Pulse 2/16/16

Major averages rallied on lower volume as oil rocketed more than 10% on Friday in anticipation of OPEC countries announcing cooperation on a production cut. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela today said they wouldnât increase crude-oil output above Januaryâs levels as long as other major oil producers followed suit, in the first coordinated move to boost oil prices in years. The Market Direction Model (MDM) had switched from its sell signal to a cash signal on Thursday as it detected a potential bounce in the majors,thus locked in profits. That said, any bounce may be shorter-lived than expected as the put-to-call ratio has recently spiked a number of times along with bearish advisers persistently outnumbering bullish ones, yet the overall downtrend has been relentless underscoring the inherent weakness in the averages. Further, the market’s recent bounce off of its mid-January lows was the weakest in years. On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei jumped more than 7% as its GDP shrank for the second time in three quarters, spurring the belief that its central bank will ease even further. China’s economic import/export woes further contributed to this belief, and the European Central Bank has suggested further easing is on the way in March. U.S. futures are up almost 1.5% at the time of this writing. The current bounce should offer a good opportunity for shorting the right stock or stocks. We will keep members apprised. Creeping, crippling tipping points are emerging such as the banking crisis which has been brewing over in Europe as more banks acknowledge they are carrying bad debt on their books. The negative interest rate environment, instead of spurring what could be called “spurious” lending, is causing banks to charge higher interest rates for loans, thus interest rates are on the rise for businesses, quite the opposite of what central banks were expecting. This begs the question whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt negative rates if they think it will only cause interest rates to indirectly rise for businesses in general. Major European banks such as Deutsche Bank are now trading below their 2008 lows.