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Smartphone shipment growth is projected to drop into the single digits worldwide this year, led by China’s transition from developing to mature market, research firm IDC said Wednesday. Apple ’s ( AAPL ) iPhone is likely to be much harder-hit than handsets using Alphabet ’s ( GOOGL ) Android operating system, IDC said. It sees iPhone shipments declining 0.1% in 2016, while Android phone shipments rise 7.6%. IDC predicts that total smartphone shipments will rise 5.7% to 1.5 billion units in 2016. Last year, smartphone shipments rose 10.4% to 1.44 billion units. IDC forecasts that Android smartphones will make up 82.6% of shipments in 2016, with 1.25 billion units. It projects Android smartphone shipments will grow at a five-year compound annual rate of 6.9% and reach 84.6% market share in 2020. Meanwhile, Apple’s iPhone will account for 15.2% of smartphone shipments in 2016, with 231 million units, IDC said. The research firm estimates that iPhone shipments will grow at a five-year compound annual rate of 3% and slip to 14% market share by 2020. Overall smartphone shipments are seen hitting 1.92 billion units in 2020, with volumes continuing to shift to lower-cost handsets. The average selling price for a smartphone is forecast to drop to $237 in 2020 from $295 in 2015, IDC said. Mature markets like the U.S., Western Europe and China all hit single-digit growth in smartphones in 2015, while high-growth emerging markets such as India, Indonesia, the Middle East and Africa, and other pockets of Southeast Asia all remained healthy. “The mature market slowdown has some grave consequences for Apple, as well as the high-end Android space, as these were the markets that absorbed the majority of the premium handsets that shipped over the past five years,” IDC analyst Ryan Reith said in a statement. “I believe Apple’s move into the trade-in business with its ‘Trade Up with Installments’ program is aimed at further increasing churn in some of its most lucrative markets despite the high penetration rates. By entering this space, Apple can more tightly control the trade-in offerings, as well as monitor the demand for where these perfectly functioning one-year old iPhones end up. The latter is just as important as the trade-in location, as it will give Apple a strong pulse on areas of high demand but perhaps less disposable income.” Large-screen smartphones, or phablets, continue to be a growth segment of the market. Phablets accounted for 20% of smartphone volumes in 2015 and are forecast to reach 32% of shipment volumes in 2020, IDC said. Apple’s iPhone sales to end users fell for the first time ever in the fourth quarter, research firm Gartner reported last month . Apple has projected that its iPhone sales into the sales channel will drop on a year-over-year basis for the first time this quarter. Image provided by Shutterstock . RELATED: Apple Working On Dual-Camera iPhone 7 Plus Smartphone: Analyst . Scalper1 News
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