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Summary Headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, Ameren Corporation provides utility services throughout the states of Illinois and Missouri. Ameren’s management expects the company to demonstrate a 7%-to-10% compounded annual EPS growth rate between 2013 and 2018 and a 6% compounded annual EPS growth rate between 2014 and 2019. As of Friday’s Close, shares of Ameren were yielding 3.89% ($1.70) and trading at P/E ratio of 17.9. When it comes to finding a solid dividend investment there’s a lot more that goes into it then just settling on an attractive yield and a reasonably attractive P/E ratio. With that said, I wanted to take a closer look at and highlight a number of reasons as to why I’ve chosen to stay long on shares of Ameren Corporation (NYSE: AEE ) which currently yield 3.89% ($1.70) and offer a P/E ratio of 17.9. Company Overview Headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, Ameren is a fully rate-regulated electric and gas utility company that is broken down into three operational segments. These segments are its Ameren Missouri segment (which serves 1.2 million electric customers and 127,000 gas customers throughout the state of Missouri), its Ameren Illinois segment (which serves 1.2 million electric and 813,000 gas customer throughout the state of Illinois) and its Electric Transmission segment (which invests in the various types of multi-value and local reliability projects throughout the state of Illinois). It should be noted that the company has a total of 3.3 million total customers (that total can be broken down into 2.4 million electric customers and 900,000 natural gas customers), 10,200 MW of regulated electric generation capability, and approximately 4,600 miles of FERC regulated electric transmission. ( Company Presentation – December 2015 ) A Pretty Solid Strategic Plan One of the most intriguing things to consider when it comes to investing in Ameren is clearly the company’s strategic plan. The plan, which is a multi-tiered approach, can be broken down into three primary strategies. According to the company’s December Investor Meeting Presentation these strategies include : Investing in and operating its utilities in a manner that is consistent with the existing regulatory frameworks that directly affect the company’s operations in both Illinois and Missouri. The enhancement of regulatory frameworks (such as its FERC-regulated electric transmission service, its Illinois Electricity service, its Illinois Natural Gas service, and its Missouri Electricity service) and advocating for responsible energy policies within both the Illinois and Missouri marketplaces. Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of both its customers and our shareholders. As long as Ameren can stay the course, I see no reason why this strategic plan will not be beneficial to shareholders moving forward. If historical stock performance is any indication of management’s success over the last five years (shares of AEE have posted a CAGR of 10.88% since December 2010), then there’s a very good chance we could see the same, if not, an even better performance over the next five years. A Strong Long-Term Earnings Outlook When a company notes that it expects to stay on course and deliver a 7%-to-10% compounded annual EPS growth rate between 2013 and 2018 and also deliver a (very conservative) 6% compounded annual EPS growth rate between 2014 and 2019 to its shareholders, I’m quite impressed. That being said, the 6% compounded annual EPS growth rate between 2014 and 2019 is very conservative considering the fact that it plans on achieving such growth without issuing any additional equity for at least the next 48 months. So what are some the drivers that are directly affecting the company’s long-term earnings growth, you ask? As a whole, Ameren will want to continue to reduce its operational and maintenance-related expenses, its parent company’s interest-related charges, and increase its investments in both electric transmission and delivery infrastructure over the next 12-24 months. It should be noted that analysts expect Ameren to earn $2.61/share for 2015 and $2.71/share for 2016. That being said, the latter of the two estimates which is the $2.71/share estimate for 2016 is a bit conservative especially if we were to apply either of the above mentioned compounded annual EPS growth rates to its estimated 2015 full-year earnings of $2.61/share. For example, if we were to apply the 7%-to-10% compounded annual EPS growth rate we’d see an estimated EPS range of $2.79/share-to-$2.87/share and if we were to apply the compounded annual EPS growth rate of 6% we’d see an estimate of $2.77/share. Recent Dividend Behavior On Monday, October 12, Ameren announced a quarterly dividend increase of $0.015/share, which brings its quarterly dividend payout to $0.425/share. It should be noted that the increase will be paid on December 31 for shareholders of record as of December 9. This boost represents a 3.65% increase from its prior dividend of $0.41/share. Based on the company’s dividend history over the last twelve months, I strongly believe we could begin to see a more consistent pattern of annualized dividend increases over the next 3-5 years as long as earnings growth stays consistent with the above mentioned estimates and the company holds true to its course in terms of maintaining the strategic plan that is currently in place. Conclusion For those of you who may be considering a position in Ameren, I strongly recommend keeping a close eye on the company’s compounded annual EPS growth rate as well as its long-term dividend growth rate over the next few years. Both of these particular growth rates will be directly affected by its ability to stay within the means of the strategic plan that is currently in place as well as the continued investment in its FERC-regulated electric transmission service and the utility services that it provides to customers who reside in the states of Illinois and Missouri. Scalper1 News
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