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Summary ETFs tracking the S&P 500 index had down-side tracking error. Other ETFs based on value, low volatility, dividend payers or equal weight fell more than the S&P 500 Index. Gold, bond and exotic ETFs provided down-side protection during the sell-off. These lessons can be used to build better portfolios. Introduction We review the past few trading days and try to draw some lessons from the rapid expansion in volatility. Naturally, it is still very early, and this edition of the crash is yet to run its course, and more lessons surely wait in the wings. However, we can draw a few lessons about portfolio construction that this market stumble has revealed. S&P 500 ETFs had down-side tracking error We measure the decline in the S&P 500 Cash index (SPX) from the Wednesday, August 19, close to the Monday, August 24, low. We want to check how well the S&P 500 ETFs did in tracking this downdraft. In Figure 1, we show that amplitude of the move from the Wednesday close to the Monday low. There was significant tracking error, particularly for the IVV ETF, which seemed to lost its bearings altogether. Hence, in designing portfolios, one should recognize that the down-side risk could be greater than that experienced by the index itself. (click to enlarge) Figure 1: There was significant down-side tracking error among popular S&P 500 tracking funds. Value, Dividend, Equal Weight Alternatives to SPX Fared Worse One of the portfolio construction principles suggested to reduce volatility and give down-side protection is to use a value approach, or have high dividend payers or change the weighting scheme. We show in Figure 2 that none of these alternatives gave any meaningful down-side protection. So, from a portfolio design perspective, it might be better to just use a good SPX ETF. (click to enlarge) Figure 2: ETFs focused on value, dividends and alternate weights fared worse in the sell-off then the SPX. Data courtesy ETFmeter.com. Low Volatility Funds Were Volatile Low volatility funds were supposed to bounce around less than the typical market ETF. However, these funds crashed harder than the S&P 500 index itself (Figure 3) calling into question their benefit within a portfolio. (click to enlarge) Figure 3: Many ETFs designed with volatility screens were more volatile on the down-side than the S&P 500 index itself and might add little value in a crisis. Data courtesy ETFmeter.com. Long-term bond ETFs and Gold ETFs provide small offset The traditional way to offset weakness in equities is through diversification into long bonds. We show in Figure 4 that the large bond fund provided a small positive offset during this major decline. Since bonds are rising while equities are falling, we measure the performance from the Wednesday close to Monday’s high. . As a store of value in a crisis, some money flowed into gold funds, and gold ETFs provided good diversification during the equity sell-off (see Figure 4). So, the gold related funds could be a source of diversification when one is constructing portfolios, though their long-run trends could dictate the size of the position. (click to enlarge) Figure 4: The major bond and gold ETFs were positive, providing diversification, but the bond ETF amplitude of the move was small compared to the declines in the equity ETFs and the expansion in the VIX index ETFs. Data courtesy ETFmeter.com. Exotic ETFs such as Leveraged Inverse ETFs Provided Diversification Lastly, we look at exotic ETFs, such as leveraged inverse ETFs and long/short strategy ETFs. By design, such ETFs should rise when the market falls, though their leverage means they are probably not the preferred choice for all investors. These inverse ETFs provided excellent on-demand down-side protection as they should, by design. The long/short strategy ETF also did well. So, for those who understand these strategies and the perils of leverage, these may be alternatives to consider during portfolio construction. We emphasize that these ETFs may not be the best alternative for everyone due to the leverage involved. (click to enlarge) Figure 5: The more exotic ETF strategies, such as inverse SPX ETFs, provided much-needed on-demand down-side protection, but due to their leverage, and other complexities, may not be the best choice for all portfolios. Data courtesy ETFmeter.com. Summary A number of lessons could be drawn from the market action so far during this sell-off, and more will surely follow. Perhaps the most important are that all S&P 500-tracking ETFs are not created equal, and that value, dividend, alternate-weighting schemes and low-volatility ETFs fared worse than the index itself. Some of the tracking errors could be attributed to the weak opening in the market, and ETF prices could have fallen more than the prices of the underlying stocks, i.e. to poor quotes in a “fast market”. However, this is a significant risk that should be factored into the portfolio construction process. Reference [1] Tushar Chande, “Eight lessons from the S&P 500 stumble to build better portfolios”, www.etfmeter.com/blog.aspx?id=4425 Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More…) I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Scalper1 News
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