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Summary Every year I like to do a recap of the lessons I learned over the preceding 12 months. A 50/50 diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is likely sitting near the zero line in 2015. At some point we are going to see a turn in this commodity downtrend that leads to a new bull market cycle. In my opinion, a counter-intuitive mindset is still one of your greatest allies when navigating these markets. Every year I like to do a recap of the lessons I learned over the preceding twelve months. I find this exercise to be cathartic in examining past mistakes as well as reminding myself of successful portfolio management guidelines that will serve us well in the future. Many of these lessons also apply to other areas of my life outside of the financial markets as well. Part of this practice also involves reviewing my prior years’ lessons in order to stay mindful of the journey that has brought us to this point. So let’s dive in to the high-level topics that drove the markets and our portfolios this year … Trendless markets require endless patience. Looked at a chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA: SPY ) lately? It’s gone virtually nowhere over the last 12 months. However, that doesn’t mean it has been completely asleep. There have been gut-wrenching drops and face ripping rallies that virtually no one could have foreseen ahead of time. To add to this sense of frustration is the fact that returns in bonds and cash are virtually flat as well. A 50/50 diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds is likely sitting near the zero line in 2015. It’s years like this that truly test your patience with sticking to your plan versus trying to go find a better system or advisor that rose to the top. Of course, you have to ask yourself whether any supposed alpha this year was driven by a time-tested process or the result of simply stumbling into the right place at the right time. Be mindful of taking on too much risk by chasing performance in areas of the market that appear stretched or are outside your comfort zone. Just because an investment seems cheap, doesn’t mean it can’t get cheaper. Anyone who has been trying to find a bottom in commodities or energy stocks this year certainly can relate to this axiom. There have been plenty of pundits, pivots, and pirates in this group that have been unable to successfully navigate the deflation trade. At some point, we are going to see a turn in this commodity downtrend that leads to a new bull market cycle. This will likely fuel demand for beaten down areas of the market like junk bonds, MLPs, oil and gas stocks, or the futures contracts themselves. The bottom line: We aren’t there yet. Trying to pick a perfect bottom in this market is more than likely going to cause undue stress rather than simply waiting for a more discernible pattern to develop. My grandfather used to say that a little bit of lost opportunity is better than a lot of lost money. That certainly applies in this instance. A counter-intuitive mindset is still your best ally. Remember that crazy summer correction in the market? The one that caused a panic on Wall Street, a lockup in ETF liquidity, and decrees that the apocalypse has arrived? Yeah it turned out we overcame that pretty fast. It was scary for sure, but taking a measured approach to any portfolio changes versus full-blown panic was the better move. In my opinion, a counter-intuitive mindset is still one of your greatest allies when navigating these markets. There is a great deal of pessimism and fear out there. More tactical investors can capitalize on that by reducing a portion of your exposure as prices rise and adding to new opportunities on dips. Long-term investors should be looking to put new money to work on any pullbacks to maximize their average cost basis. Starting something new can be rejuvenating. We all get stuck in the grind of our daily life. Our normal routines can get boring, dull, and allow complacency to set in. One of the ways we combated that mindset this year is by introducing a new premium newsletter service to our blog. We call this the Flexible Growth and Income Report , which is designed for serious investors with intermediate to long-term time frames. Our primary investment vehicles are diversified, transparent, and liquid exchange-traded funds. It’s also one of the few services that implements closed-end funds to enhance yield or seek greater returns. The introduction of this new service allowed us the opportunity to evaluate new themes, interact with new clientele, and challenge our existing market thesis. All of this may seem like additional work at first, but it can be truly rejuvenating in the sense that we are creating dynamic content that is rabidly consumed and used as actionable material. It’s a humbling and inspirational process that we enjoy producing every week. Shoulda, coulda, woulda are a drain on emotional capital. Ever feel like there was that one trade you almost took and then decided it wasn’t right for you? Then it goes on to be a very profitable investment and you can’t seem to get that “I should have bought XX” feeling out of your mind. It’s even worse if there was a trade that you forced, only to find out that it was a big loser in time or money. This seems to be a reoccurring theme when I talk to individual investors about their portfolios. Even very successful investors are haunted by missed opportunities or trades they wish they could have back. There is nothing wrong with a short period of self-reflection if you feel you made a mistake with your portfolio. Nevertheless, spending too much time worrying about something that has already passed you by is a drain on emotional capital. It also keeps you preoccupied from being in the present and the future opportunities that will be afforded to you. It’s not always easy to live in the here and now when we are constantly bombarded with historical results in this business. Yet, filtering out the noise and letting go of nominal miscues will be a significant game changer in your long-term success. The Bottom Line 2015 was a difficult year in many respects. However, it afforded the chance to learn and grow as well. Make sure you take the time prior to 2016 to set goals for your personal, professional, and investment endeavors. This will enable you to benchmark your performance to ensure you are on the right track to meet your ultimate objectives. Scalper1 News
Scalper1 News