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In our Mutual Fund Commentary yesterday we spoke about funds in focus if the U.S. Fed decided against a rate hike as soon as September. Utilities funds demand attention then as low interest rate environment, which has for sometime been near a zero level, has been extremely conducive for its growth. The capital intensive utilities industry needs to access external sources of funds to expand its operations. While it remains too close to call, today let’s look at funds that investors may immediately add to their portfolios if the Fed announces rate hike. Amid the market volatility, the Fed seems to be stuck between global central banks’ easing measures, dollar strengthening, deflationary pressures arising from the energy sector and troubles in the global economy. While most polls recently turned against a September rate hike, a recent CNBC survey shows that 49% predict a rate hike now. We do not rule away the chances of a rate hike completely, may be by 0.25%, but uncertainty is what is ruling the roost. Whether lifting the monetary policy stimulus would be a prudent move is the question that the Fed needs to answer. The two-day Federal Open Market Committee’s policy meeting ends today. The finance sector, in this regard, seems to be a good bet, as several industries including insurance, banking, brokerage and asset managers tend to benefit from the rising rates. Before we pick the funds, let’s look at some other details. CNBC Survey Goes Against Other Polls According to a CNBC survey, 49% of respondents out of 51 economists are projecting a rate rise now. This data as of Sep 16 is in line with predictions on Aug 25. On the other hand, those believing in a delayed rate hike dropped to 43% from 47% on Aug 25. The rate has increased for those who are unsure, as the percentage is at 8% as of Sep 16 compared with 5% on Aug 25. They predict that the Fed will finish hiking rate in this cycle, or take it to “terminal rate” in the first quarter 2018. This brings the prediction forward by six months. Separately, most are of the view that markets have priced in the hike. While 56% believed its priced into stocks, 60% said its priced into bonds. However, the Standard & Poor’s 500 is estimated to finish 2015 at 2,032, lower that prior projection of 2,135. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll shows that 45 respondents out of 80 economists believe that the Fed will leave its benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.25%. Only 35 respondents expected a rate rise. Looking at the primary dealers or economists from banks dealing directly with the Fed, 12 banks see no rate hike now as against 10 expecting a rate hike. Financials to Gain While Deutsche Bank believes they expect a “hawkish hold,” stance, UBS chairman Axel Weber is expecting a rate hike. He said: “The underlying economic data in the U.S. warrants a rate hike. The U.S economy can stand it. The U.S. economy in my view actually needs it medium- to long-term and I’m pretty convinced that the U.S. will see a rate hike, most likely in September.” The financial sector will be among those which will gain if a rate hike occurs. One particular beneficiary of higher rates is the insurance industry. This is because they take in premiums from customers, invest them — usually in fixed income securities — and then pay out claims in the future. Also, brokerages earn interest income on un-invested cash in customer accounts. So when rates rise, they can invest this cash at higher rates. Banks may benefit from rising interest rates, as long as long-term rates move up more than short-term rates. Banks derive benefits from a steep yield curve, i.e. when the spread between long-term and short-term rates is wide. The interest rates on deposits are usually tied to short-term rates while loans are often tied to long-term rates. This means that the potential rise in rates will enable the banks to charge more for loans, leading to an increase in the spread between lending rates and the rates paid on deposits. Moreover, an improving economy means that credit quality will likely improve, which will also aid banks’ profitability. Insurance companies invest majority of the premium income received from policyholders in government and corporate bonds to earn investment income. They utilize this investment income in meeting their future commitments to policy holders. The potential rise in rates will allow the insurance firms to invest their new premium income in higher yielding securities, thereby leading to higher future returns. With a rise in rates, brokerage firms are likely to engage in more investment activity. Brokerage firms earn interest income on un-invested cash in customer accounts. The rise in rates will allow the brokerage firms to invest at higher rates. Further, asset managers can position themselves favorably with the rise in rates. In the fixed income sector, default rates are likely to decline and higher interest rates will enable reinvestment at higher yields, which ultimately will boost portfolio returns. The benefit can be achieved by positioning fixed income portfolios strategically through proper management of duration, diversification of sources of yield and maximize the reinvestment of income. 3 Financial Mutual Funds to Buy Below we present 3 Financial mutual funds that carry either a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2 (Buy). We expect the funds to outperform its peers in the future. Remember, the goal of the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is to guide investors to identify potential winners and losers. Unlike most of the fund-rating systems, the Zacks Mutual Fund Rank is not just focused on past performance, but the likely future success of the fund. The funds have encouraging year-to-date, 1-year and 3 and 5-year annualized returns. The minimum initial investment is within $5000. These funds also have low expense ratio and carry no sales load. Emerald Banking and Finance Fund A (MUTF: HSSAX ) seeks long-term growth through capital appreciation. Income is a secondary objective. HSSAX generally invests at least 80% of its net assets in common stocks. Emerald Banking and Finance’s managers limit the fund investment to 50 companies and the fund invests primarily in U.S. based companies. HSSAX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. It boasts year-to-date and 1-year returns of 11.9% and 18.3%. The 3 and 5 year annualized returns are 20.1% and 18%. Annual expense ratio of 1.60% is however higher than the category average of 1.52%. Moreover, HSSAX also has low beta score. The 1, 3 and 5 year beta scores are 0.58, 0.63 and 0.75. Franklin Mutual Financial Services Fund A (MUTF: TFSIX ) seeks capital growth. TFSIX invests a lion’s share of its assets in undervalued companies that are involved in the financial services domain. TFSIX may also invest in merger arbitrage securities and securities of distressed companies. TFSIX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. It boasts year-to-date and 1-year returns of 4% and 7.3%. The 3 and 5 year annualized returns are 13.9% and 11.2%. Annual expense ratio of 1.44% is lower than the category average of 1.52%. Moreover, TFSIX has 1, 3 and 5 year beta scores of 0.81, 0.83 and 0.70. John Hancock Regional Bank Fund B (MUTF: FRBFX ) invests most of its assets in equities of regional banks and lending companies. These may include commercial banks, industrial banks, savings and loan associations, financial holding companies, and bank holding companies. FRBFX may also invest in other U.S. and foreign financial services companies. A maximum of 5% may be invested in stocks outside the financial services domain. FRBFX currently carries a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #2. It has year-to-date and 1-year returns of 2.2% and 8%. The 3 and 5 year annualized returns are 14.3% and 13.2%. Annual expense ratio of 1.98% is however higher than the category average of 1.52%. Moreover, FRBFX has 1, 3 and 5 year beta scores of 0.62, 0.65 and 0.88. Link to the original article on Zacks.com Scalper1 News
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